Leading Off:
● AK-AL: Former Alaska public broadcasting CEO Steve Lindbeck entered the race against longtime Republican Rep. Don Young a few months ago, and he’s off to a good fundraising start. From April to June, Lindbeck, a Democrat, outraised Young $402,000 to $136,000; the incumbent has a $640,000 to $325,000 cash-on-hand edge.
There’s no doubt that unseating Young will be tough, even if Lindbeck can outspend him. Alaska is one of the few states where members of Congress still openly tout their seniority as an asset, rather than something to hide from voters who are wary of “career politicians.” Indeed, Young, who has served since 1973, somewhat clumsily tried to argue that Alaskans can’t afford to sacrifice his clout in DC. Young said that his opponent “is too old for the job. I’m 83 years old. He’s 63. But when he gets to my age he’ll be dead. And that’s the facts of life.” Alaska is also a conservative state, though Romney’s 55-41 win was the smallest margin of victory for a GOP presidential nominee since 1992.
Still, there are some signs that Alaskans are tired of Young. In 2014, Young made insulting comments about a high school student’s suicide. Young only faced a weak Democratic foe that cycle and it was too late for national Democrats to effectively target him. However, Young only won 50-40, far weaker than his 64-29 victory just two years earlier. Lindbeck also recently released a poll that showed Young with a negative 39-49 approval rating, though it did not include any head-to-head numbers.
Young is one of the few Republicans who has earned support from organized labor, but that may finally be changing. Last month, two maritime unions, angry that the congressman didn’t intervene to save 250 union jobs connected to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, endorsed Lindbeck. Still, while the DCCC has added Lindbeck to their Emerging Races list, they do not appear to have reserved any fall time in Alaska, nor has House Majority PAC, another major Democratic group. Daily Kos Elections continues to rate the general as Likely Republican, but if fatigue with Young is really strong enough, Lindbeck could pull off a surprise.
Senate:
● CO-Sen: Here’s a weird story involving Republican nominee Darryl Glenn, who is waging an uphill bid against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. Back in 1983, police responded to a call from Ernest Glenn, who said that his 18-year old son had struck him in the face; the police report identifies the culprit as “Darryl Lemon Glenn,” and the charges were dropped a few months later. If that was all to this matter, it wouldn’t be very interesting: This was a long time ago, and people make mistakes.
However, back in May, the candidate said he had never had any run-ins with the law and that he also had no knowledge of this whole thing, and speculated that a different person named Darryl Glenn was involved. Earlier this month, Glenn told the Colorado Springs Independent that the perpetrator may have actually been Cedric, his half brother. (Both Ernest and Cedric are deceased.) Glenn also argued that if he’d been charged, he never could have been admitted to the United States Air Force Academy. However, the Denver Post recently acquired the court documents, and the signature of the person identified as “Darryl Glenn” looks very much like the candidate’s. A handwriting analyst who spoke to the Post also says that she believes that “it’s the same person who signed both.”
On Monday, Glenn’s campaign said that “Darryl has never been arrested, never even been questioned by the police, and doesn’t know what actually happened. There’s nothing inconsistent because in both instances, he was speculating on what might have happened.” However, the campaign would not allow the paper to talk to Glenn. Needless to say, this whole thing doesn’t look great for him. The candidate has little money, badly trails in the polls, and has little outside support, and Glenn can’t afford to have his would-be allies wondering if he’s unnecessarily covering up a 33-year-old incident.
Gubernatorial:
● MO-Gov: The GOP pollster OnMessage Inc. is out with a week-old poll of the Aug. 2 GOP primary, and they give ex-U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway a 25-23 edge over rich guy John Brunner. Retired Navy SEAL Eric Gretiens is close behind with 21, while Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder grabs 19. OnMessage says that, while they’re working for a candidate in the attorney general race, they’re not aligned with any of the gubernatorial candidates. A recent SurveyUSA poll also found a close race, but they had Gretiens edging Brunner 25-21, with Hanaway and Kinder each taking 18.
House:
● CA-36: Obama only carried this Palm Springs-area seat 51-48, but the GOP once again seems to be letting Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz off easy. State Sen. Jeff Stone has continued to be a weak fundraiser, and he brought in just $119,000 during the last quarter; Ruiz holds a massive $2 million to $111,000 cash-on-hand edge. Last cycle, the GOP nominated another state legislator who had problems with fundraising, and Ruiz pulled off a strong 54-46 win despite the red wave. Daily Kos Elections rates the general as Likely Democratic.
● CA-49: Last month, Republican Rep. Darrell Issa outpaced little-known Democrat Doug Applegate just 51-46 in the top-two primary. Applegate’s surprisingly-strong showing has given him a fundraising boost: After hauling in just $4,000 from April to mid-May, Applegate, a retired Marine, raised $131,000 during the remainder of the quarter. Applegate still trails Issa $3.8 million to $136,000 in cash-on-hand, and the wealthy Issa can afford to spend whatever he wants to hold his 52-46 Romney seat. National Democrats haven’t reserved any TV time here yet, but they sound interested in Applegate: The DCCC released a poll a few weeks ago showing the two tied 43-43, and the GOP never released contradictory numbers.
● DE-AL: Fairleigh Dickinson University takes a look at the Sept. 13 Democratic primary, and unsurprisingly finds that most voters are undecided. Former state Labor Secretary Lisa Blunt Rochester and state Sen. Bryan Townsend each take 11 percent; former gubernatorial aide Sean Barney grabs 4, and he trails two Some Dudes. In other words, it doesn’t look like anyone starts out with a meaningful edge. Rochester just aired the first ad of the campaign a few days ago.
● FL-01: Republicans have a crowded Aug. 30 primary for this safely red Pensacola seat, but one candidate is blowing the others out of the water when it comes to fundraising. Over the last quarter, state Rep. Matt Gaetz raised $362,000. Surprisingly, two little-known candidates also raised more than $100,000 without any-self funding: Rebekah Johansen Bydlak, an attorney, took in $141,000, while James Zumwalt, a former aide to retiring Rep. Jeff Miller, raised $109,000.
Meanwhile, state Sen. Greg Evers, who represents about two-thirds of this seat in the legislature, brought in only $97,000. Last month, Evers drew national attention after the Pulse massacre when he announced that would give away an AR-15 to one local adult who liked and shared his Facebook page. Evers’ stunt doesn’t seem to have done much to help his campaign financially at least.
● FL-02, FL-04: The National Association of Realtors, which tends to spend heavily in races that they care about, has taken sides in two primaries for safely red north Florida seats. In the 2nd Congressional District, they’ve endorsed physician Neal Dunn in the three-way race. In the 4th District, they’ve backed state Rep. Lake Ray. Ray doesn’t have anywhere near as much money as his two main primary foes, ex-Jacksonville Sheriff John Rutherford and lawyer Hans Tanzler III, so any outside spending on his behalf could go a long way toward helping him.
● FL-05: Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown is running in a district largely unfamiliar with her while indictment, but until now, she had at least one silver-lining: ex-state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson, her primary foe, was a terrible fundraiser. However, after bringing in almost nothing for months, Lawson raised $83,000 from April to June. That’s still not incredible, but it’s allowed him to amass a $172,000 to $100,000 cash-on-hand edge.
● FL-10: Former Florida Democratic Party Chair Bob Poe is going up with a negative spot against ex-Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, the favorite candidate of national Democrats, ahead of the Aug. 30 primary for this safely blue seat. Poe tells the camera that “[p]olice brutality has gone unchecked for far too long in Orlando. Police Chief Val Demings oversaw it, and did nothing. And nothing is not what we need in Congress right now.” Poe pledges to make police accountable, give them training, and require them to wear body cameras. Poe’s spot is part of his overall $1 million ad buy. Demings herself is going up with a biographical spot that Bloomberg says talks “of her childhood as the daughter of a janitor and a maid, and of her eventual career in law enforcement.”
● GA-03: On Tuesday, dentist Drew Ferguson defeated state Sen. Mike Crane 54-46 in the primary runoff for this safely red open seat. This contest turned into a battle between the GOP establishment and tea party flavored outsiders: Ferguson was backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and retiring Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, while the anti-tax Club for Growth and Sen. Ted Cruz supported Crane.
However, there was an unusual twist in this contest. A few months ago, Crane, a vocal opponent of no-knock warrants, provocatively told a crowd that if police “come to my house, kick down my door—if I have an opportunity, I will shoot you dead. And every one of you should do the same.” Ferguson and his allies ran commercial after commercial blasting Crane, with a local county sheriff memorably declaring that the senator’s comments would get his officers killed.
Crane went up with a response ad denouncing Ferguson’s commercial, telling viewers that both his father and uncle were police officers. However, it wasn’t enough for him to turn this contest around. Ferguson also benefited from the support of businessman Jim Pace, who took a close third place in the first round of the primary in May, as well as a clear spending edge over Crane.
● KS-01: The Club for Growth is going up with another spot in support of tea partying Rep. Tim Huelskamp with less than a week to go before the GOP primary. The narrator once again argues that physician Roger Marshall isn’t really a conservative, saying that he “supports more Washington debt, opposes full repeal of Obamacare, supports internet sales taxes, and funded a Democrat’s campaign.” The commercial doesn’t go into any detail, or so much as provide a text citation for any of its charges. At the end, the narrator briefly praises Huelskamp as “the conservative the insiders can’t control.” According to the National Review, the Club has bought $130,000 in airtime for the final week of the primary in this safely red western Kansas seat.
● KS-03: Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder is seeking re-election in a suburban Kansas City seat that backed Romney 54-44, but Democrats are hoping that Gov. Sam Brownback’s unpopularity will give them an opening. Financial counselor Jay Sidie entered the race about half way through the fundraising quarter and brought in $104,000, and he trails Yoder $1.8 million to $96,000 in cash-on-hand. The DCCC recently added Sidie to their Emerging Races list, but they haven’t made any other obvious moves to put this seat in play yet.
● MI-01: Here’s something you don’t see everyday: a union leader is helping a candidate in a Republican primary. The Detroit News reports that Mike Thibault, the head of the Upper Peninsula Building and Construction Trades Council, is raising money for state Sen. Tom Casperson, one of the three Republicans competing in next week’s primary. Thibault also said that the group’s endorsement “is a signal to our membership that it’s OK if you want to vote for somebody other than the Democrat.”
Casperson is one of the few Republicans in the legislature who has voted against anti-union legislation, and he even recently proclaimed that he’s “certainly stood up to labor.” Casperson has received other contributions from unions and in recent days, Defending Main Street, a union-funded super PAC that helps friendly Republicans, launched a $150,000 TV buy against ex-state Sen. Jason Allen.
Casperson has also launched a TV spot against retired Marine Lt. Gen. Jack Bergman, who has been self-funding his bid. The narrator argues that Bergman lobbied “for a company that was forced to pay $95 million for defrauding the federal government. His firm illegally paid recruiters a bounty to target veterans and others for education grants.” Bergman has denied that he ever worked for Education Management Corp., which the Detroit News describes as “a for-profit college that paid the federal government $95 million in 2015 for consumer fraud.” Instead, Bergman insists that he “was hired on to fix the infractions. I was not part of the group that made the infractions.”
Casperson and Bergman both hail from the Upper Peninsula part of the district, and Casperson seems to be worried that they’ll split the vote enough to allow Allen to prevail. The winner will likely face Lon Johnson, the former state Democratic Party chair, in the general.
● NE-02: While freshman Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford should be a top GOP target in this 53-46 Romney Omaha seat, retired Air Force Brig. General Don Bacon has had a tough time raising cash. However, Bacon won the GOP nod in May, and he finally pulled in a good fundraising quarter: From April to June, Bacon brought in $305,000. But Ashford, who also initially struggled with fundraising, took in a stronger $433,000 during this time, and the incumbent has a $1.2 million to $181,000 cash-on-hand edge.
Both parties are preparing for a fight here. The DCCC and House Majority PAC have reserved a total of $2.1 million in fall airtime, while the NRCC has reserved $1.3 million. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is also making a play for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in the hopes of winning its electoral vote. Even if Clinton can’t take the seat, the more she improves on Obama’s 2012 performance, the fewer crossover votes Ashford will need.
● NH-01: Republican Rep. Frank Guinta faces a primary challenge on Sept. 13 from businessman Rich Ashooh, and Guinta has a financial edge… for now. At the end of June, Guinta led Ashooh $215,000 to $133,000 in cash-on-hand. However, Ashooh only entered the race in April, and he outraised Guinta $231,000 to $115,000 in his opening quarter, so he may end up outspending the incumbent. Guinta has been in hot water since last year, when the FEC ruled that he had illegally accepted a $355,000 campaign donation from his parents in 2010. Prominent New Hampshire Republicans hoped Guinta would resign or at least retire, but he’s not going anywhere willingly.
On the Democratic side, ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter took in $204,000 during the last quarter, and she has $342,000 on-hand. Until last month, Shea-Porter faced a primary with wealthy businessman Shawn O’Connor, but he decided to run as an independent. That’s not great news for Team Blue, but O’Connor may not end up spending much of his own money in the general. While O’Connor loaned his campaign $1 million, he recently took half of it back, and he has just $74,000 left in his campaign account. Obama narrowly carried this seat, and Democratic groups have reserved $3.4 million in fall airtime here.
● NJ-05: Republican Rep. Scott Garrett has pissed off many of his old business allies through his anti-gay rhetoric and opposition to the Export-Import Bank, and they’re continuing to donate to Democrat Josh Gottheimer instead. From April to June, Gottheimer outraised the incumbent by an astounding $892,000 to $397,000, though Garrett still has a $2.8 million to $2.5 million cash-on-hand edge. Romney won this North Jersey seat 51-48.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.
