Leading Off:
● NH-Sen: You've heard us say before that when you release an internal poll showing your own candidate down, you're not in good shape … yet operatives persist in doing so anyway. That makes it hard to explain why conservative super PAC Ending Spending would release a poll from Vox Populi that finds Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan beating Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte by a 46-43 margin. Several recent polls have found Ayotte trailing, but the situation isn't so dire that you really want to suggest your best-case scenario has you down "just" 3 points.
Or maybe it is. The latest batch of polling has shown Hillary Clinton legging out to a considerable lead in New Hampshire, and that includes Vox's survey, which finds her beating Donald Trump 41-31. That's similar to the margin in a separate new poll from PPP, conducted on behalf of the gun safety group Americans for Responsible Solutions, which puts Clinton ahead 50-37 and Hassan up 47-42. It's definitely not a good sign when a Democratic poll for a liberal group and a Republican poll for a conservative group show essentially the same thing—not a good sign for the GOP, in this case.
Senate:
● IN-Sen: Former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh had only run positive ads during his brief campaign so far, but now he's up with his first negative TV spot. The ad blasts GOP Rep. Todd Young for voting for tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas, a very common line of attack in Democratic ads. But the message is delivered better here, since it's much more specific. A narrator hits Young for supporting such tax breaks "for companies like Carrier that ship Indiana jobs to places like Mexico and China," then piles on by saying he accepted campaign contributions from Carrier even after it announced it would send 1,400 Hoosier jobs abroad. Comedian Mike Myers has said that in comedy, specific is always funnier. In politics, specific is always deadlier.
● MO-Sen: Democrat Jason Kander is airing his second TV ad, and this time, he's doing it with the help of the DSCC. The spot slams GOP Sen. Roy Blunt as a creature of Washington who's voted to raise his own pay, lives in a $1.6 million "DC mansion," and whose wife and three kids are all lobbyists. It's not clear how much the DSCC is chipping in, but according to the FEC, it's permitted to spend up to $451,000 in coordinated expenditures in Missouri.
● Polls: Here's a roundup of today's other Senate polls:
FL-Sen: Opinion Savvy: Marco Rubio (R-inc): 45, Patrick Murphy (D): 43 (45-44 Clinton)
FL-Sen: PPP (D): Rubio: 42, Murphy: 40 (46-43 Clinton) (conducted for Americans for Responsible Solutions)
FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Rubio: 48, Murphy 45; Rubio: 49, Alan Grayson (D): 43 (43-43 tie)
IA-Sen: Suffolk: Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 52, Patty Judge (D): 42 (37-36 Trump)
OH-Sen: Quinnipiac: Rob Portman (R-inc): 49, Ted Strickland (D): 40 (44-42 Clinton)
PA-Sen: Quinnipiac: Katie McGinty (D): 47, Pat Toomey (R-inc): 44 (48-39 Clinton)
These all look pretty similar to other recent polls, so there isn't a lot to say. For Democrats, those Ohio numbers are concerning, particularly since Quinnipiac finally stopped seeing the state as bluer than Pennsylvania (something that hasn't happened since 1948). But speaking of the Keystone State, the results continue to look good for McGinty, who's now led in the last four public polls.
Iowa, on the other hand, has been disappointing. A spate of early polls showed Grassley, for the first time in ages, under 50 percent, but four of the last five (all from different firms) have, oddly enough, had him ahead by exactly the same 52-42 margin. And Trump's been holding on with some tenacity in Iowa, which was one of only two states George W. Bush managed to flip between 2000 and 2004. And Florida? That's still the very definition of a tossup, but if Clinton's lead continues to grow there, that's going to make Rubio's life very difficult.
House:
● AZ-01: With less than three weeks to go before primary day, state House Speaker David Gowan unexpectedly dropped out of the Republican primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District on Thursday and has thrown his backing to wealthy rancher Gary Kiehne. It's a pretty remarkable end for Gowan, considering his status as the state's top legislator, but even he admitted that his poll numbers were going nowhere.
And as a consequence, his support may not matter much to Kiehne. The most recent poll we saw of this race was an internal from Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu back in March, which gave Gowan a pitiful 2 percent of the vote. Kiehne was tied at 9 with former Secretary of State Ken Bennett, but Babeu was far ahead at 36—and no one's ever released any contradictory numbers. Still, that was a long time ago, so it's hard to get a read on where things stand now. Democrats, meanwhile, have rallied around former state Sen. Tom O'Halleran, who faces no serious intra-party opposition.
Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is running for Senate, making this district, which Mitt Romney carried this district 50-48, a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. But with Donald Trump fading in Arizona, plus word that Hillary Clinton is staffing up there, this race could wind up being a lot harder than Republicans anticipated.
● FL-23: Signs may point to victory, but Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is taking no chances ahead of this month's Democratic primary. The former DNC chair is airing her first TV ad, an extremely defensive spot in which she lambastes "people who don't even live in Florida, including Republicans" who are "spending outrageous amounts of money on personal attacks that are directed at me." Wasserman Schultz says the attacks are "just garbage," particularly because "you and I are focused on stopping Donald Trump's offensive and dangerous campaign." In other words, vote for me because people shouldn't attack me so that I can go and attack someone else.
Wasserman Schultz faces law professor Tim Canova on Aug. 30, but a recent poll for a friendly super PAC put her ahead 59-26. What's more, a group of consultants who had been top advisors to Bernie Sanders (including Tad Devine) just abandoned Canova, suggesting they think he's not worth their time.
● IL-10: A new Anzalone Listz Grove poll conducted for the DCCC finds Democratic ex-Rep. Brad Schneider leading the man who ousted him two years ago, GOP Rep. Bob Dold!, by a 46-40 margin. But what should truly worry the incumbent are the presidential toplines, which now find Hillary Clinton demolishing Donald Trump 56-25. To put that 31-point spread in context, Barack Obama—who is, of course, is a favorite son of Illinois—carried the 10th District by "just" 16 points in 2012 and "only" 27 in 2008. Dold's campaign doesn't appear to have commented on these latest results, though back in early May, it released a survey showing the congressman up 48-41. That sure seems like a long time ago, doesn't it?
● KS-03: Now this is interesting. Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder, who didn't even have a Democratic challenger in 2012 and won with 60 percent of the vote in 2014, has gone ahead and released an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies showing him with a 53-36 lead on Democrat Jay Sidie. Sure, that looks like a healthy edge, but why would a guy who represents a district that went for Mitt Romney by a 54-44 margin apparently feel the need to calm some jitters?
It's not all that hard to figure out the reason: Donald Trump. Yoder's memo says in bold type that he's "out-running Donald Trump by a wide margin." But while that might once again seem like good news for the incumbent, it carries with it grave danger. That's because, according to this same poll, Hillary Clinton is carrying this district—by a 44-38 margin! Even in 2008, when he was putting up his best-ever numbers, Barack Obama still lost Kansas' 3rd to John McCain 50-49.
And there's supporting evidence in the form of a recent statewide SurveyUSA poll, which found Trump winning by a pitiful 44-39 spread. Obama lost Kansas by 22 points four years ago, but Clinton's down by just 5, which represents a 17-point shift. That same year, he lost the 3rd District by 10 points, so if you apply that same 17-point adjustment, you'd get a Clinton lead of 7 points—almost identical to what POS has.
Now, let's not kid ourselves. This is still a conservative district, and Yoder has a massive cash advantage over Sidie, $2.2 million to just $73,000. It'll therefore be hard for Sidie to tie Yoder to Trump without outside help. But Republican anxiety does seem to be real. If you burrow down deep into Yoder's lengthy poll memo, it mentions that he ran ahead of Mitt Romney by 15 points. But as we noted above, no Democrat even ran against Yoder that year. That's almost the definition of protesting too much. Democrats, we should note, held this district until the 2010 GOP wave, and this is precisely the kind of seat that could turn blue once again in a Trumpocalypse.
● ME-02: The House Majority PAC says it's putting $700,000 behind a new ad to help Democratic Emily Cain. In the spot, a man who identifies himself as a Maine Guide (a certified wilderness guide) touts Cain as a genuine Mainer who is a "champion for Maine families" and has worked "across party lines."
● NY-22: Wealthy independent Martin Babinec is running a new 15-second TV spot, and it gives us a helpful clue as to where his ideology lies. Says Babinec, "Private investors should fund businesses, not taxpayers. Government needs to stop picking winners and losers." That's a pretty conservative message, so with any luck, Babinec will draw more votes away from Republican Claudia Tenney than Democrat Kim Myers in this swingy open seat.
● WA-07: On Thursday, King County Councilor Joe McDermott endorsed state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw, a fellow Democrat, in the race for retiring Rep. Jim McDermott's safely blue House seat in Seattle. McDermott finished third in Washington's top-two primary last week with 19 percent of the vote, just a bit behind Walkinshaw's 21 percent. But now Walkinshaw faces another Democrat, state Sen. Pramila Jayapal, who took 42 percent of the vote to capture first place. Even if all of McDermott's supporters went over to Walkinshaw, that wouldn't exceed Jayapal's vote total, but the November electorate will be considerably different than the one we just saw in August, so the outcome here remains difficult to predict.
Grab Bag:
● Ad Roundup:
- PA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC attacks GOP Sen. Pat Toomey on guns, his supposed strong spot.
- WI-Sen: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, wielding a long gun, attacks Democrat Russ Feingold for not supporting the Second Amendment.
- FL-10: Democrat Val Demings has a frenetic spot in which she's praised as Orlando's first female police chief.
- NE-02: People praise Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford for getting a new health center for veterans in Omaha.
- TX-23: In his first ad, freshman GOP Rep. Will Hurd touts his work to help veterans and improve border and cyber security.
● Site News: We are incredibly excited to announce that we will soon be relaunching Daily Kos Elections, and you can get a sneak preview of what we have in store right here. There will be new features galore, including a prominent place for our forecast model (which is developed and maintained by statistician Drew Linzer) that uses polls and other quantitative data to predict the outcome of the presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial elections.
Longtime community members will also appreciate the return of two features: related diaries (now known as "Community Stories"), and the permanent links to Daily Kos Elections resources that used to be found in the blogroll. The revamped site will be available at elections.dailykos.com, but you'll also still be able to access the current version of the site that you see here. This is a phased roll-out, so we'll be regularly adding additional features as we move forward. We don't have an exact launch date, but we'll let you know just as soon as we do. Head on over to our preview post to check it all out and let us know what you think!
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.
