My operating theory of partisanship is that people’s opinions of the candidates are baked in, and while we may see some movement in the margins, the only question left is who turns out, rather than how they will vote.
Donald Trump will provide a serious test of my theory. From a Democracy Corps dial-test focus group on debate night:
Clinton produced impressive gains in the vote, squeezing the third party candidates and raising intensity of support with white unmarried women and white working class voters. That alone would be a big night. But just as important, she shifted these voters’ perceptions of her as a person on such key attributes as trustworthiness, having good plans for the economy, jobs, and looking out for the middle class. There was also a huge shift in her overall favorability (+33 points).
The white working class story is almost as impressive. Their lines spiked all through the debate and their favorability towards Clinton also shifted 33 points. The 2-way vote margin shifted 16 points as the 3rd party vote got squeezed [from 47-38 Clinton, to 57-32]. And at the end of the debate she won her biggest gains with these working class voters on the economy, keeping America strong and having the right approach to taxes. Clinton could not have hoped for better.
You can go here to see the dial-test slides for the entire debate, but this one really stuck out to me: when Clinton talked about Trump’s misogyny:
That was Clinton’s masterful closing remarks, and then Trump’s need to justify his misogyny instead of sticking with his own messaging in the end. Look at particular at that white, non-college educated numbers. Those are the people that Trump has picked up in disproportionate numbers since 2012 (which Clinton has offset with college-educated whites).
If Clinton holds on to those college-educated whites, but Trump loses the non-college ones, that doesn’t just mean trouble for him (he’s already losing), but for his entire party’s ticket.
Do I think that’ll happen? No. I see turnout being the bigger factor in the final control of Congress (again, not who people vote for, but which people end up voting). Do I hope this dial test is a harbinger of me being proved wrong? Hell yes!
For now, we wait for the public polling to capture the post-debate sentiment (likely not until Friday or this weekend), to see if there is any such movement. If it’s real, it’ll show up in that polling’s crosstabs. I can’t wait!
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