O.K., round one is over. Hillary absolutely wookie stomped The Orange Julius two nights ago in front of over 80,000,000 people, which doesn’t include however many millions more were watching it on live stream remotely. Now, next week we get the one and only chance to see the two Vice Presidential candidates go head to head. What can we expect?
First of all, don’t look for a repeat of Monday night. You can still make up the popcorn, but you might want to sip a Red Bull with that beer to make sure you see the whole thing. Neither one of these guys are gunslingers who shoot from the hip, and unlike Mein Furor, Pence has been boning up like hell for this debate. Unlike DJ Trumpenstuff, he knows that an important moment isn’t always punctuated by a loud “CHA-CHINGGGG!”...Mike Pence will bring his A-game. If you’d like a more in depth analysis of the candidates past debate performances, there is an excellent article at Politico.com that gets down into the weeds. But this diary is my personal observations and opinions.
First we’ll tackle Tim Kaine. What’s not to like? He’s affable, likeable, comes across as folksy and genuine, and has a firm grasp of issues. He was a successful Governor of Virginia, and a serving U.S. Senator when he was nominated for the VP role. His personal baggage that could affect his political ambitions seems to me to be minimal. Mike Pence might dearly want to hit at Kaine in the debate for his “perks” as Governor, but there’s one small problem there. Unlike the disgraced and disgraceful Governor “Slick Pockets” Bob McDonnell, Tim Kaine properly and duly reported all of those items in his filings, and all were legal under VA law. There is no there there for Pence to go to. Pence might want to try to turn the debate into a referendum on Hillary, but that is a risky maneuver, voters want to hear the candidates talk about their plans and each other, and not the top of the ticket. Pence is going to have to be ready with specific policies (good luck with THAT with Trump), and replies to the issues. Tim Kaine should be on solid footing coming out of the gate. Besides, he blows a mean mouth organ.
Now on to Mike Pence. *sigh* This guy may as well be a bellhop at a hotel with no carts. He’s carrying baggage in both hands, but from two different sets of luggage. The first problem is his demeanor. Kaine comes across as easygoing and likeable, Pence comes across as a straight laced conservative. His God and family persona may well be sincere, I have no reason to doubt it, but but his demeanor can make him look aloof and standoffish, which may well alienate some voters.
His second problem is his boss. The Cheeto Prophet makes almost an obsession of saying silly shit. Since he came on board, Pence has labored mightily, like a brushman, plodding along after the Trump elephant and cleaning up his shit. In the process he has repeatedly rationalized and defended Tiny Hands statements. Should he so choose, there will be ample opportunities for Kaine to exploit this, to bring up these statements and ask Pence if he actually supports all of this. How Pence responds may well determine the debate winner. Pence has little opportunity to retaliate here, simply because Hillary doesn’t say off the wall stuff.
The last 4 suiter that he’s carrying is his own record. Pence is a diehard, strict Christian conservative on social issues. There should be plenty of time to re-litigate his disastrous anti LGBTQ law in Indiana, including his eventual buckling under intense public and business pressure to change it. And while this may be a solid gold winner for his conservative base, that’s not who he’s trying to reach here, and with the changing social demographics in this country, to everybody else he comes off looking like an out of touch Evangelical zealot. This could be a real problem for him if Kaine raises it in the debate.
The last thing I want to touch on is debate experience. As near as I can tell (and God knows I’m no research savant online), Pence had no debates in his runs for congress. He did debate multiple times in his run for the Governors office. That’s it. Kaine also debated multiple times in his Governors race, but he also debated several times when he ran against incumbent Senator George Allen. I have to believe that the preponderance of Kaine’s debate experience gives him a solid edge here.
My prediction? (Right, like you’re on the edge of your seat here!) There will be no knockout. Both men are civil and neither relishes jumping into the mosh pit. Like Ali, they prefer to lay back on the ropes, firing off stinging jabs and waiting for the opponent to miss a punch so that they can land uppercuts. There will be telling blows, but they’ll be more nuanced, and you’ll have to pay attention to catch them. Nobody will go down for the count, but if you watch you may catch a couple of involuntary knee buckles and quick retreats. In my opinion, Kaine’s down home, folksy demeanor, along with his decided previous advantage in previous debate experience, and his more current grasp of national and international affairs gives him a solid edge, but he can’t get careless.
Thanks as always for reading!
