So we all saw the trainwreck yesterday. I was specially pleased to see it work out the way it did. Because it unfolded just like Dan Kahneman would have laid out. Let me explain.
According to Dan Kahnemann, our responses can be categorized into a gut level/instinctive “System 1” and a cerebral “System 2”. System 1 is our fast response, and the one that we indulge in all the time. It includes all our biases (“black guy on a dark street = trouble” “Jewish guy in New York = banker” etc.), our fight or flight reflexes (and thus encompasses all our fears, including those of black guys on dark streets). Dan Kahneman calls it the lazy response ~ it does not require too much energy to indulge in a System 1 response.
System 2, by contrast, is what we deploy to overcome our System 1 biases. It is a more cerebral response ~ and requires that our brains process information systematically. It is what we invoke to force ourselves into thinking away from our “black guy = trouble” System 1 response. In turn, it means that when we indulge in System 2, we consume more energy and deplete our blood sugar levels at a significant clip. Dan Kahneman estimated that deploying System 2 is the equivalent of a reasonably challenging hike (yeah, I was surprised by this too). So, if we are forced to deploy System 2, we deplete our sugar levels ~ and when we deplete our sugar levels, we tend to get cranky and irritable.
Which brings me to the debate yesterday, and the question of stamina. If you recall, Trump had a pretty good start in the debate. He sparred pretty well for the first 15 minutes or so. But as time went on, he slowly fell apart; and towards the end, he was blathering some nonsense about Rosie O Donnell. This was, in my opinion, the result of Trump’s blood sugar level being depleted because he was forced to deploy System 2 over and over again by Secy Clinton. This is what happens when you dont practice ~ Dan Kahneman also taught us that with enough practice, you can turn your System 2 response to a System 1 response. As an example, consider what happens when we first learn how to drive ~ when we first get behind the wheel, we have to consciously (ie, via our System 2), process every object on the road. As time goes on, and with enough practice, we develop an instinctive response to those objects (ie, via our System 1), and dont need to deploy our System 2 anymore. Secy. Clinton had practiced, so her responses were System 1 for the most part. The Donnie was too smart to practice (he has the best brains, remember) ~ he was having to deploy his System 2 all the time ~ and that can be very tiring.
Now, if you go back and watch the zingers that Secy Clinton deployed, she tended to save her best for the last. As an example, she saved the line about Miss Piggy and Miss Housekeeping (which was a really good one) to the very end of the debate. She spent the first 30 minutes challenging him on issues that requires thinking. Consider the following exchange
Independent experts have looked at what I've proposed and looked at what Donald's proposed, and basically they've said this, that if his tax plan, which would blow up the debt by over $5 trillion and would in some instances disadvantage middle-class families compared to the wealthy, were to go into effect, we would lose 3.5 million jobs and maybe have another recession.
They've looked at my plans and they've said, OK, if we can do this, and I intend to get it done, we will have 10 million more new jobs, ….
Notice this exchange ~ she claims that Trump’s plan will cost 3.5 million jobs, and with her plan, we will have 10 million jobs. Independent experts have said this. Now, what do you think Trump is thinking ? Holy shit...how is that possible. How did her plan score at 10 million jobs. Kellyanne told me it was only 3 million. How is her plan so much better than mine. How do I respond to that ? Turns out that while Secy. Clinton is technically accurate, she is cleverly playing with words. Her plan will not add 10 million new jobs, but “just” 3.2 million new jobs. She says that “we will have 10 million more new jobs”, but that includes 6.8 million new jobs that we would have regardless (this is the baseline scenario). Do you think Trump has the facts on his fingertips to process this ? Do you think he is going to challenge her ? She is inviting a challenge, but she knows one wont come. Her goal is to tire Trump out, which she does. And note that she is not being dishonest here ~ if she had said that her plan would create 3.2 million new jobs, and Trumps plan would cost 3.5 million jobs, then that would have been just as impressive, and just as accurate. But that would be a line that he might have heard before, and may have been able to process. Instead, she used a line that is just as accurate, but it required him to process information via his System 2. She is tiring him out. And before he has time to process all this, she continues.
….because we will be making investments where we can grow the economy. Take clean energy. Some country is going to be the clean- energy superpower of the 21st century. Donald thinks that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. I think it's real.
Woah, she pulled out that line on me. I need to respond to this. I cant let that go by.
TRUMP: I did not. I did not. I do not say that.
CLINTON: I think science is real.
TRUMP: I do not say that.
Notice what she did there ? She forced him to deploy his System 2 on the plan comparison. And then she hits him with the climate change = Chinese hoax. And here is one more thing that Dan Kahneman taught us: when your System 2 is not able to take charge, you tend to rely on your System 1 more than you should. Trump’s System 2 was processing the plan comparison, and he could not avoid taking the bait on the climate change = Chinese hoax. Now what do you think Trump’s System 2 is thinking. “Holy shit… I totally screwed up here. Kellyanne told me such outbursts are bad, and I am going to have to explain that somehow” . He went on to spout a word salad about...something. Under the circumstances, that is what should have happened.
So how did Secy Clinton pull it off, and make it look effortless ? She practiced, until the cerebral System 2 response become a System 1 response. Consider the following exchange that took place towards the end. Trump is asked about the “she does not have a Presidential look” line of his. He parries this by claiming that he was talking about stamina, and not looks. But look at his word salad ~ it is clear that he is tired, and invoking his System 2 for this response, and so he is getting flustered, even as he (very skillfully, under the circumstances.. I must say) pivots from looks to stamina. But look at Secy. Clinton’s response ~ it is clear that she knows exactly what to say. She makes him look like a slug in the process. She remains completely cool in the process because she is using her System 1.
HOLT: Mr. Trump, this year Secretary Clinton became the first woman nominated for president by a major party. Earlier this month, you said she doesn't have, quote, "a presidential look." She's standing here right now. What did you mean by that?
TRUMP: She doesn't have the look. She doesn't have the stamina. I said she doesn't have the stamina. And I don't believe she does have the stamina. To be president of this country, you need tremendous stamina.
HOLT: The quote was, "I just don't think she has the presidential look."
TRUMP: You have -- wait a minute. Wait a minute, Lester. You asked me a question. Did you ask me a question?
You have to be able to negotiate our trade deals. You have to be able to negotiate, that's right, with Japan, with Saudi Arabia. I mean, can you imagine, we're defending Saudi Arabia? And with all of the money they have, we're defending them, and they're not paying? All you have to do is speak to them. Wait. You have so many different things you have to be able to do, and I don't believe that Hillary has the stamina.
HOLT: Let's let her respond.
CLINTON: Well, as soon as he travels to 112 countries and negotiates a peace deal, a cease-fire, a release of dissidents, an opening of new opportunities in nations around the world, or even spends 11 hours testifying in front of a congressional committee, he can talk to me about stamina.
(APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: The wo
I am going to close with a quote from my favorite sportsperson ~ who happens to be Ricky Ponting. Ponting (Punter) used to be the captain of the Australian Cricket team (which means that he was the 2nd most important person in Australia, after their Prime Minister), and was also regarded as one of the best batsmen in the world. His quote (cant find a link, and I am relying on memory, so I have probably garbled it up a wee bit). The picture above is from the last time Ponting walked out to bat in a test match ~ the other players who are giving him an honor guard as he walks in are his South African opponents. His quote
You cannot execute a shot in a match situation if you are not able to execute it in a practice situation.
That is why Secy Clinton practiced.
Now, some of you are upset because Secy Clinton did not say this, or that, or the other. You have a list of things you want her to say. I can guarantee you that she is aware of all of those issues. If she has not deployed them already, then it is because she needs a few lines (like the ones above) for the other 2 debates. Keep in mind that while Trump is an idiot, he does have some sharp people on his team (with all that money, there has to be some brains around somewhere). And they are doing the analysis I described above, and trying to get him to practice. He will not practice (because he is an idiot, afterall), but he will get debriefed, and Secy Clinton will not be able to tire him out with the same lines again. She will use new lines to tire him out.
So let us all just chill out and enjoy the spectacle. It will be a beautiful sport. A tremendous sport. The best.
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2016 · 3:50:21 PM +00:00
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SevenStrings
Thank you everyone for all the kind words. I enjoyed reading them all…. even as I dozed off (or woke up this AM). My System 1 felt like responding with a hippety hop, but my System 2 took over, and reminded me that I should not disturb sleeping wives.
