I have feared for over a year that the combination of global warming and El Niño would warm the tropical Atlantic to record levels producing the conditions that would allow a hurricane as destructive as Sandy or Mitch to form in the Caribbean or western Atlantic ocean. Matthew looks like it will be that storm. Matthew just formed, is still quite disorganized, but already has 60 mph (50Kt) sustained winds. Proximity to South America’s dry winds may slow intensification for the first 48 hours, but weather models are in agreement that Matthew will move, in 3 to 5 days, into the western Caribbean where conditions are favorable for rapid intensification to major hurricane strength.
Matthew’s track is uncertain after 3 days but where ever it goes it is likely to intensify over very warm water into a very dangerous hurricane. The NHC’s present 5 day forecast takes it towards Kingston, Jamaica, but it could be anywhere from Haiti to Cuba or the open ocean.
Because steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean for the next week, Matthew is likely to be somewhere in the western Caribbean at the end of 5 days. The present NHC forecast track, which is consistent with the European model, takes it towards Jamaica in 5 days but it could be anywhere from Haiti to Cuba or the open ocean and still be within the 5 day NHC forecast region. However, the chance of major destruction in the Caribbean is very high because there will be land interactions with the Caribbean islands no matter what track Matthew takes.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions could support a strong category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern coast of the United States.
I’m not going to show the latest American model run which shows Matthew striking North Carolina close to where I live in 8 days because models are not able to forecast hurricanes 8 days out. However, I take the model run as a warning to prepare and make a plan. The extraordinary ocean heat around Florida and the Bahamas is particularly concerning to me because a hurricane could rapidly intensify like Andrew or Katrina over these waters that are warm to record depths. Every American living on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts needs to make plans and be prepared for a possible intense hurricane. I have not seen any developing tropical storm since Sandy that concerned my as much as Matthew concerns me now. There is too much heat in the ocean.
