Leading Off:
● NY-19: In a rather surprising move, local Democratic leaders in New York's 19th Congressional District have coalesced around law professor Zephyr Teachout as their preferred candidate, though there's no formal significance to their endorsement. What's more, despite insisting they'd reached a "consensus" to back Teachout, there were some dissenters among the 11 county chairs (though no one's saying precisely how many), and at least one other potential contender, Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik, has filed paperwork with the FEC, adding that the race is "wide open."
Teachout, meanwhile, still hasn't made up her mind about running, though she says she plans to decide by Monday. She's only lived in the district for a year, which is part of what makes her selection so unexpected: The Democrat who ran here last cycle, wealthy activist Sean Eldridge, got absolutely pilloried for carpetbagging up from New York City, and the final results reflected that. However, thanks to her unsuccessful but attention-grabbing gubernatorial bid in 2014, Teachout probably has greater fundraising ability than other possible candidates.
4Q Fundraising:
● TX-23: Pete Gallego (D): $224,000 raised, $424,000 cash on hand
Senate:
● AZ-Sen: After spending most of last year suggesting he was very unlikely to run for Senate, GOP Rep. David Schweikert reportedly started taking a serious look at the race last month. Now, though, he's finally arrived at a decision … maybe. Arizona Republic reporter Dan Nowicki says that Schweikert "signaled" he won't run against Sen. John McCain at a weekend meeting of the Maricopa County GOP, but the remarks he relays from Schweikert still leave some ambiguity.
The closest we come to anything definitive is Schweikert saying, "The polling was amazing, but we came to the conclusion that we're just not seeing the money to do it," but even then, his lament about financial backing is a present-tense statement—one that could be subject to change in the future. And the picture becomes even murkier when you consider that Schweikert also told Nowicki that "despite conventional wisdom, it wouldn't be too late for him to launch a Senate campaign." That's not a direct quote, but perhaps Schweikert thinks he does still have time, if the money train arrives—and so perhaps this is some sort of public signal to the tea party establishment that he's still waiting for their assurances.
Nowicki, though, later added via Twitter that he doesn't think Schweikert was "doing any tap-dancing" and says other sources told him that Schweikert has told them that he's not running. Still, we're tremendous sticklers for hearing from the proverbial horse's mouth here at Daily Kos Elections. Politicians are squirrely folks by nature, and they're often very adept at sounding like they're saying one thing when they in fact mean the opposite. "I have no plans to run," for instance, might seem like a "no" but in fact holds the door open to a universe of possibilities. After all, plans change.
So unless and until we get a clear, direct quote from Schweikert (or the June 1 filing deadline passes without his name showing up on the ballot), we can't rule out the possibility that he could challenge McCain. What's more, Schweikert's comments came amidst a vote by the Republicans in Maricopa (where about 60 of the state lives) to endorse "anybody but McCain" by a 61-39 margin, so there's still a hunger for a challenger. Unfortunately for them, the most prominent name aside from Schweikert belongs to ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward, a confirmed "wacko bird," to use McCain-speak.
● GA-Sen: Democrats are courting a new potential candidate to run for Senate in Georgia: U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, who is also an Army vet and former state senator. Tarver would face long odds against GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, but Democrats can't afford to let him go unchallenged. Given that Georgia's shifting demographics are slowly making the state bluer, the party needs to show it can compete here on a regular basis, and it also needs to have someone in place should the unexpected happen and Isakson retires or blunders badly.
● OH-Sen: Oh, quintuple puke. We rarely write up items about the election cycle ahead of the one we're currently in—after all, there's always more than enough news to go around—but Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel occupies a special place of disgust in the blackest part of our hearts. The incredibly over-ambitious Mandel ran one of the most revoltingly mendacious campaigns in recent memory when he challenged Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2012, but thankfully, he lost, despite the tens of millions spent on his behalf by outside groups.
But Brown's seemingly solid final margin—6 points—could portend a much closer result in the non-presidential year of 2018, when he'd be up for re-election. So it's with great dread and horror that we note that Mandel has just reactivated his campaign committee in preparation for a possible rematch. He's also created a groanily named PAC to support such a bid called Justice Opportunity Strength Honor—four things he knows nothing about. With the election three years off, we can hope that something else will come up to occupy Mandel's attention, but that seems unlikely. Sherrod Brown fans, we hate to say it, but buckle in for another cycle of suck.
Gubernatorial:
● MO-Gov: Quarterly fundraising reports were due on Friday for the period covering Oct. 1 to Dec. 31. On the GOP side, retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens continues to raise the most cash from donors. Greitens hauled in $1.5 million over the last three months, and he has $3.4 million on hand. Wealthy businessman John Brunner raised a credible $682,000 and he also loaned himself $3 million, giving him a $3.6 million warchest.
Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder took in a more modest $300,000 over this time, and he has $445,000 on hand. Catherine Hanaway, who has served as state House speaker and as a U.S. Attorney, raised just $145,000, but thanks to past support from zillionare Rex Sinquefield, she has $1.5 million on hand. Missouri has no contribution limits, so if Sinquefield opens his wallet for Hanaway again, she can quickly catch up to Greitens and Brunner.
Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster has no credible primary opposition, and he has the luxury of conserving his money until the general election. Koster brought in $1.4 million, and he has a hefty $5.8 million in the bank.
House:
● FL-05: Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham is still waiting for the final bits of litigation to play themselves out over Florida's new congressional map, but she now says that if Florida's redrawn 5th Congressional District winds up as an open seat, she'd consider running there. That could happen in one of two ways: Either current 5th District Rep. Corrine Brown decides to seek re-election in the 10th District, or she simply retires. Either seems possible, but one thing Graham says she won't do is primary Brown.
That makes a fair bit of sense, since Graham would need a fractured multi-candidate field in the Jacksonville end of the district (where Brown is from) so that she could try to consolidate the vote in her hometown of Tallahassee. Graham's task would be complicated by the fact that the primary electorate in the new 5th is heavily African-American, so in addition to a geographic division, she'd probably need to see a split among black voters, too.
But the whole thing would be difficult to pull off no matter what, since ex-state Sen. Al Lawson, who also hails from Tallahassee, is already running, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is considering, too. Graham also isn't ruling out bids for Senate or governor, which offer more direct paths to office.
● FL-09: Uh wow. Former Democratic state Rep. Ricardo Rangel is joining Gravis Marketing, and he still plans to continue running for Congress, a bid that's gone nowhere. Scroll down to our MD-01 item to understand why this is such a goggling development, especially for a Democratic politician.
● IL-10: Nancy Pelosi's been somewhat active of late on the campaign trail: Last week, she issued an endorsement in Florida's 10th Congressional District, and now she's put one out in Illinois' 10th, too. It's not too surprising that she's backing ex-Rep. Brad Schneider, who served in her caucus for a term and was recruited for a comeback bid by the DCCC after he narrowly lost re-election in 2014. Pelosi also previously headlined a fundraiser for Schneider, hosted by DCCC chair Ben Ray Lujan.
As he did in 2012, Schneider once again faces a primary against someone who's to his left, this time in the form of Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering (who, among other things, supported the Iran nuclear deal while Schneider's opposition cost him significant local support). The fact that Pelosi feels compelled to intervene so directly, though, makes you wonder if perhaps the race is closer than the Schneider internal poll that put him up 54-18 in October. The primary is March 15.
● MD-01: Hahahah of course! Last week, we said there was "no way" (our exact words!) that former state Del. Mike Smigiel was actually beating Rep. Andy Harris 58-29 in the GOP primary, and now we know we were absolutely right. Smigiel's survey was conducted by the execrable Gravis Marketing, whose track record alone was enough to make us disregard such bonkers numbers. But it turns out Gravis did something worse than being just plain stupid—they were mendacious, too.
As Politico's Steve Sheppard discovered, Gravis conducted an "informed ballot" poll, meaning they fed voters information about both candidates before pitting them against one another in a horserace matchup. In theory, this is a perfectly standard practice, but if you're releasing informed ballot numbers, you have to say so!
And nowhere in Smigiel's press release did he do that. In fact, he went out of his way to make the numbers appear kosher when they were, in fact, pickled pig feet. Now, you might say that this is all on Smigiel, and how can his pollster be to blame? But no legit polling outfit would ever allow a client to pull shit like this, and if a campaign went rogue, its pollster firm would want to very publicly cut ties with such a candidate in order to protect its credibility.
But it's unlikely Gravis cares about such things, since their poll was already garbage on its face. While informed ballots can be useful in testing messages to probe the strengths and weaknesses of yourself and your opponent, Gravis didn't do that. They only asked negative questions about Harris and positive questions about Smigiel, which is a deliberate way to put your thumb on the scale—and ensure you get back propaganda, not polling results.
You'll also note that Gravis' poll summary starts with question number three. Where are questions 1 and 2? Was one of those an initial ballot test that asked about Smigiel vs. Harris without any priming? If so, we can bet that those numbers looked awful for Smigiel, who is running a near-penniless campaign against a well-established incumbent. Any self-respecting pollster, and any legitimate candidate, would have released those numbers, or simply not released any poll at all—which tells you everything you need to know about Gravis and Smigiel.
● NJ-05: GOP Rep. Scott Garrett is facing an unusual level of hostility for his anti-gay views, thanks in part to geography (his style of bigotry seems more out of place in the North Jersey burbs) and to his position as chair of a key financial subcommittee (Wall Street, once happy to do business with Garrett, now finds him repellent). It culminated in a major piece from Bloomberg Politics last week detailing how Garrett's rancor toward gay marriage has cost him donations from the finance industry and led to increased support for his Democratic opponent, former Bill Clinton aide Josh Gottheimer.
Now Garrett has responded with a statement detailing his views on gay rights, and it's not low-key. The choicest bit:
My colleagues and my constituents know that I am a devout man of faith, and therefore I support traditional marriage. But calling me names or implying that I have malice in my heart for any person or group of people is false and completely disingenuous. Was President Obama a bigot before he changed his view on traditional marriage in 2012 when it was politically convenient? Or Hillary Clinton? Or President Bill Clinton? Like all Americans who exercise their right of free speech and religion, I make contributions to people and organizations who share my beliefs on important issues, in this case traditional marriage.
For one thing, you don't usually see ultra-conservative congressmen compare themselves to Barack Obama. For another, Obama's views changed—Garrett's haven't. And unlike Garrett, Obama never said he wouldn't contribute to gay candidates for office (duh), so yeah, it's not much of a stretch to read "malice" into Garrett's heart. Hell, even other Republicans in Congress haven't taken Garrett's side, which is why his refusal to donate to the NRCC because of its support for gay candidates was so notable in the first place.
Can a Republican sitting in a swing district in the northeast survive against an aggressive challenger in a presidential year while defending his retrograde feelings about gays? Soon enough, we'll find out whom voters agree with.
● NY-01: Former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst earned yet another endorsement from a figure prominent in the national Democratic establishment—and the state party, too: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who has made a point of lending her muscle to women candidates around the nation. Throne-Holst has done well on the congressional front, with support from former DCCC chair Steve Israel, among others, while her Democratic primary opponent, venture capitalist Dave Calone, has done better with local figures (though Throne-Holst has not been shut out at home).
● NY-03: There's been some activity on both sides for Rep. Steve Israel's now-open House seat. For Democrats, Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern just announced he'd enter the race, joining North Hempstead Town Councilwoman Anna Kaplan. In addition, lobbyist Brad Gerstman (he's the one who called himself an "Andrew Cuomo Democrat") says he's forming an exploratory committee, though that's a term without much legal significance.
Meanwhile, Suffolk County Legislator Rob Trotta has filed paperwork with the FEC, making him the third Republican to do so after state Sen. Jack Martins and Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci. So far, the only Republican actually running is Marine vet David "Bull" Gurfein, who was apparently already in race before Israel announced his retirement but just confirmed he's sticking around with a formal campaign kick-off. He also had a one-second role in A Few Good Men, playing a Marine (of course) who stops Jack Nicholson's character from throttling Tom Cruise's.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
