The much-awaited, much-touted Ann Selzer Poll for the Iowa Caucus was released today just a few minutes ago. Here are the headlines:
Democratic Caucus
- Hillary Clinton: 45%
- Bernie Sanders: 42%
- Martin O’Malley: 3%
Republican Caucus
- Donald Trump: 28%
- Ted Cruz: 23%
- Marco Rubio: 15%
- Ben Carson: 10%
- Rand Paul: 5%
- Chris Christie: 3%
- John Kasich: 2%
- Carly Fiorina: 2%
- Jeb Bush: 2%
The pollsters also asked whether Iowa Democrats would be okay with voting for a democratic socialist. Seven out of 10 said they are okay with it and 43% said they consider themselves democratic socialists.
From the Des Moines Register:
“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. “If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied."
“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.
The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."