Back in August, when Hillary was riding high, Nancy Pelosi was urging progressive leaders to help take the House for the Dems. Those discussions receded when Trump crept closer before his debate debacle. Now Hillary is well up again and the House is ripe to be taken.
Statistical mavens have determined that if Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, the Dems would have a good chance to take the House. Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Skelley has projected that with a 5 point margin, Clinton would win in 39 districts currently held by Republicans, creating a great opportunity for the Dems to win the 30 seats they need for a majority. Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster, has calculated that if Trump gets less than 45% in a congressional district, the Republican House candidate is likely to lose.
According to Nate Silver’s analysis of current polling, Hillary is up by 4.5 points nationally and Trump is projected to win only 43.6% of the popular vote. If Hillary maintains or increases her lead, the Dems have a good statistical chance of taking the House.
But we won’t take the House by just riding on Hillary’s coattails. The impact of national voting is too diffuse. The plutocrats recognized early this summer that their control of the House was at risk, so they are pouring millions of dollars into the swing district races. In Ruben Kihuen’s race against right wing Crescent Hardy in Nevada’s 4th CD, the NRCC has spent over $1.8 million for attack ads against Kihuen. The GOP Congressional Leadership SuperPAC has spent over $1.4 million against Zephyr Teachout, a progressive running for New York’s 19th CD. The NRCC has kicked in at least another $450,000 against her. The NRCC has also put in almost a million to defeat Emily Cain in Maine. The list goes on. In total, Paul Ryan and the Republicans have invested at least $64 million to protect their most vulnerable House candidates.
We can still take the House, but only if we are as strategic as those rich bloodsuckers. We need to put the same kind of focus on the red-to-blue swing districts, the nearly 40 districts where liberal and progressive Democrats have the best chance of winning. We don’t need to match the Republicans dollar for dollar. Most of the swing districts are closely divided in voter registration. That’s why they are swing districts. Quite a few have a majority of Democrats. President Obama sent out a letter last week noting that “26 of the 30 seats to win the House majority are districts I won in 2012. And Mr. Trump’s divisive and polarizing campaign continues to alienate more and more Americans, putting into play even more Republican seats once thought safe.”
Republican turnout will likely be lower than usual because of disaffection with the Donald. Despite a financial disadvantage, if Hillary can keep close to her current lead, most of the swing district Dems should win – if they have enough money to air responses to attack ads and to hire organizers to GOTV.
That’s where you and your friends come in. You can find a list and description of 37 swing district Democratic candidates at letstakethehouse.org. You can directly donate to any or all of those candidates there. As the President wrote, “Now is not the time to sit on the sidelines.” Donate today and help spread the word.
