Leading Off:
● NH-Sen: Granite State Democrats managed to pull off a win here even with so much else going wrong nationwide. On Wednesday afternoon, GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte conceded to Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan after certified results gave Hassan a 48.0-47.9 lead, which amounted to a 1,023-vote edge.
This was a fiercely contested race from beginning to end. Aside from Nevada, this is also the only competitive Senate race that Team Blue won on Tuesday. (Democrats picked up Illinois, but neither party spent much there.) Clinton carried New Hampshire 47.5-47.3, almost exactly matching Hassan's margin of victory. Hassan's win takes the GOP's majority down to 52-48 (assuming the GOP holds the Louisiana Senate seat in the December runoff as we expect they will).
Senate:
● LA-Sen, LA-03, LA-04: Unsurprisingly, all three of these contests will go to a Dec. 10 runoff. In the Senate race, Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy grabbed first with 25 percent, while Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell took the second place spot with 17. GOP Rep. Charles Boustany took 15 percent, narrowly missing the runoff; Democratic attorney Caroline Fayard and GOP Rep. John Fleming grabbed 12 and 11 percent, respectively. Louisiana is a very conservative state, especially in federal races, and Kennedy will be heavily favored over Campbell.
In the Shreveport-based 4th District, little-known Democrat Marshall Jones grabbed the first runoff spot with 28 percent. However, the big winner was GOP state Rep. Mike Johnson, who outpaced GOP physician Trey Baucum 25-18 to grab the critical second runoff spot. Johnson is a favorite of religious conservatives and the powerful anti-tax group the Club for Growth, and he should have no trouble beating Johnson in a seat that Trump easily carried.
Over in the 3rd around Lafayette, we have an all-GOP runoff. Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who won a close third in last year's gubernatorial race, took 29 percent, while retired police officer Clay Higgins earned 27 percent; none of the other 10 contenders cleared 9 percent of the vote. Angelle is well-funded and probably is favored over Higgins, who is a local celebrity from his "Crime Stoppers" videos. Of course, a Higgins win would hardly be the strangest thing to happen in 2016.
Gubernatorial:
While several gubernatorial races were uncompetitive, others were unpredictable until the very end, and one still has not been called. Below is our summary of Tuesday's results.
● IN-Gov: While some polls showed Democrat John Gregg ahead, Republican Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb won this seat by a 51-44 margin. Holcomb, a former state party chair and a top aide to Sen. Dan Coats, spent much of 2015 running for the Senate, but he raised very little money. Holcomb dropped out of that race and was soon appointed lieutenant governor by Gov. Mike Pence after the previous holder resigned to seek a position leading the local community college system. In July, Pence pulled the plug on his re-election campaign in order to serve as Donald Trump's running mate, and the state party leadership picked Holcomb as their new nominee.
Holcomb started with very little money or name recognition, though the RGA transferred millions to his war chest. Gregg argued that Holcomb would only continue Pence's unpopular policies, and in another year, this may have been a winning strategy. However, with the Trump-Pence ticket carrying Indiana 57-40, there probably wasn't much of a path to victory for Gregg.
● MO-Gov: Republican Eric Greitens, a retired Navy SEAL, defeated Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster 51-45 to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon. Greitens, who started with little name recognition but plenty of political connections, raised a boatload of money and ran plenty of ads in the primary emphasizing his military service, including more than one spot that featured Greitens firing a machine gun. Koster had the support of the NRA and the Missouri Farm Bureau, two groups that rarely back Democrats, and as recently as late September, even Greitens' own poll gave Koster an edge. But things narrowed in October, and Donald Trump's 57-38 win was probably just too much for Koster to overcome.
● MT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock narrowly held his seat on Tuesday, defeating wealthy Republican Greg Gianforte 50-47 as Donald Trump was carrying Montana 57-35. Gianforte spent heavily here, arguing that he could do a better job creating local jobs than the incumbent. Bullock and his allies likewise portrayed Gianforte as an out-of-touch rich guy with few roots in Montana.
● NC-Gov: With 100 percent of precincts in, Democrat Roy Cooper leads GOP Gov. Pat McCrory 49.0-48.9 as of Wednesday morning, or by 4,772 votes. Cooper has declared victory, while McCrory has put out a statement saying that since there are "tens of thousands of outstanding absentee, military, and provisional ballots," he's not conceding. This contest is tight enough that the trailing candidate will be able to request a recount. If Cooper's lead holds, this will be Team Blue's only gubernatorial pickup this year.
● NH-Gov: Republican Chris Sununu, the son of ex-Gov. John Sununu and the brother of a former U.S. senator, defeated fellow Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern 49-47. Sununu is the first Republican to win the governor's office since Craig Benson's 2002 victory. New Hampshire's governors only serve two-year terms, so Sununu will be up for re-election in 2018. Benson is the only first-term governor to lose re-election since 1926, so history is on Sununu's side.
● VT-Gov: Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Scott defeated former state Transportation Secretary Sue Minter 53-44 to win a two-year term. While Vermont is a solidly blue state, Scott benefited from outgoing Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin's weak numbers, as well as his own personal popularity.
● WV-Gov: While Donald Trump helped wreck Democrats in plenty of contests across the nation, this race was very different. Coal billionaire Jim Justice, the wealthiest man in West Virginia, defeated GOP state Senate President Bill Cole 49-42, even as Trump was winning by an insane 69-27. Republicans have made huge gains in West Virginia over the last few years, but they haven't won this seat since 1996.
Cole and his allies ran plenty of ads arguing that he would help Trump achieve his goals in the state, and that Justice was too close to national Democrats. However, it was Justice who had more of a Trump-like appeal. Justice has portrayed himself as a local who never forgot his state, and he's highlighted how he bought the famous Greenbrier Hotel and saved it from bankruptcy and brought the New Orleans Saints training camp to West Virginia.
A September Politico article noted that both Justice and Trump have built up similar cults of personality as populist billionaires, which helped Justice reach out to Trump voters who were otherwise done voting for Democrats. Justice's ties to the state's all-important coal industry also made it tough for the GOP to caricature him as a typical Democrat.
House:
Uncalled Races: Aside from the two Louisiana House seats going to December runoffs, only two House races remain uncalled.
● CA-07: As of Wednesday afternoon, Democratic Rep. Ami Bera leads Republican Scott Jones by 50.6-49.4 according to CNN's tally, or by 2,094 votes. In recent California elections, late counted votes have favored Democrats, so Bera should be in good shape.
● CA-49: As of Wednesday afternoon, GOP Rep. Darrell Issa holds a 51.1-48.9 lead over Democrat Doug Applegate according to CNN's tally. (Issa leads by 3,980 votes.) California late ballots have favored Democrats in recent cycles and helped several Democratic incumbents turn a narrow election night deficit into a narrow victory. California also can spend weeks counting all its votes, so it may be a while before we know who won here.
● House: On Tuesday, Republicans picked up three House seats while Democrats flipped nine (two California seats have not yet been called). Because of redistricting, there was no real doubt that the GOP would take FL-02, while Team Blue would gain FL-10 and VA-04. Below is a look at the other contests where one side or the other flipped a seat.
● FL-07: Republican Rep. John Mica may win the award for worst candidate of 2016 anywhere. Even after redistricting made his suburban Orlando seat significantly bluer and Democrats reserved millions to help former Department of Defense analyst Stephanie Murphy, Mica still refused to do so much as hire a campaign manager. Democrats aired ad after ad against Mica, while the incumbent did little to respond for much of the race. The NRCC eventually began spending to save the lazy incumbent, but Murphy still pulled off a 51.5-48.5 win under tough conditions.
● FL-13: Redistricting made this St. Petersburg seat far bluer than before, and Republican Rep. David Jolly was in for a tough time against ex-Gov. Charlie Crist. Jolly has had an awful relationship with the House leadership for a while, and he made things worse this spring when he publicly badmouthed the NRCC's fundraising practices on a segment of 60 Minutes; the committee responded by accusing him of lying about them on the show. Crist decisively outraised Jolly while his Democratic allies spent heavily, but national GOP groups didn't lift a finger to help Jolly. Crist won just 52-48 despite all that; as Jolly learned the hard way, there are consequences to pissing all over your allies.
● FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy left this light red Treasure Coast seat behind to unsuccessfully run for Senate, and Republican Brian Mast defeated Randy Perkins 54-43 to get it back for the GOP. Mast didn't start out the race with much name recognition or fundraising success, but he had a strong story to tell as a veteran who lost both his legs in Afghanistan. Mast improved his fundraising as the cycle progressed and decisively won a crowded primary.
Perkins, the wealthy owner of a disaster recovery company, spent his own money freely. However, the GOP ran ads portraying the contest as a match between a man who sacrificed so much for his country and a greedy businessman who profited off other people's misfortunes, and Perkins never found a good way to push back.
● IL-10: In their third match in as many cycles, ex-Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider defeated GOP Rep. Bob Dold (Bob Dold!) 52.5-47.5 in this affluent suburban Chicago seat. Schneider narrowly unseated Dold in 2012, and the Republican pulled off a close win in 2014. Donald Trump was not a good fit for this area, and while even the NRCC ran an ad praising Dold for standing up to Trump, it wasn't quite enough. We'll see if Dold runs again and allows us to keep using one of our favorite memes. Bob Dold!
● NE-02: Rep. Brad Ashford was one of just two Democrats to unseat a Republican House member during the hell year of 2014, but he couldn't survive the hell year of 2016 in this red Omaha seat. Ashford lost 49-47 to Republican Don Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general.
● NH-01: Republican Rep. Frank Guinta lost to Democrat Carol Shea-Porter 44-43, with Democrat-turned-independent Shawn O'Connor taking 9. This is the fourth time they've faced off in as many cycles, with Guinta unseating Shea-Porter in 2010 and 2014, and her returning the favor in 2012 and on Tuesday.
Guinta's defeat isn't a surprise, though he did come surprisingly close to winning given all that he had going against him. Guinta has been in political hot water since May of last year, when the FEC ruled that he'd illegally accepted a $355,000 campaign donation from his parents in 2010, during his first bid for Congress. Prominent New Hampshire Republicans called for him to resign, but he went on to narrowly win re-nomination in September. Both parties originally reserved millions here, but Democrats canceled their buys after releasing a poll showing Shea-Porter far ahead, and the NRCC pulled out of the race in the final weeks of the contest.
Donald Trump came very close to winning New Hampshire and almost certainly carried this seat, so both sides may have just underestimated his coat tails. It's also possible that the NRCC just decided it didn't want to prop up someone as troublesome as Guinta when it could instead help more deserving candidates elsewhere.
● NJ-05: While it doesn't begin to make up for all that went wrong on Tuesday, Democrats had reason to smile when Josh Gottheimer unseated Republican Rep. Scott Garrett 51-47 in this North Jersey seat. Garrett has always been a social extremist out of step with his light red suburban seat, but he hit a new low last year after Politico reported that he told the NRCC he wouldn't donate to them because they supported openly gay candidates. Garrett's opposition to the Export-Import Bank also angered his old Wall Street allies, and many of them donated to Gottheimer. Democrats sensed an opening early and spent heavily on ads going after Garrett as a socially conservative bigot, while national Republicans decided not to expend resources on such a difficult member.
● NV-03: Nevada was a bright spot for Democrats across the board on a bleak night. Democrat Jacky Rosen defeated Republican Danny Tarkanian 47-46 in this open suburban Las Vegas seat. Retiring Sen. Harry Reid and his allies spent months unsuccessfully searching for a candidate here, and Rosen, a programmer and local synagogue president, wasn't their first choice. But Rosen was the one who stepped up to the plate in the end, and she had the support of national Democrats and Reid's powerful political machine.
Team Red wasn't so lucky. Local Republicans, including Gov. Brian Sandoval, backed state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson over Tarkanian. But while Tarkanian had unsuccessfully run for office four times, he hailed from a well-known family and had plenty of money to spend, and he decisively won the primary. Both national parties spent heavily here, and Nevada Democrats' successful get-out-the-vote efforts made the difference in this tight race.
● NV-04: Republican freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy won this blue North Las Vegas seat in 2014 thanks to awful Democratic turnout, and he lost 49-45 to Democratic state Sen. Ruben Kihuen on Tuesday. Retiring Sen. Harry Reid and labor groups backed Kihuen in the June primary, and they came to his aid in the general as well. Both parties spent heavily here as well, but strong Democratic turnout helped sink Hardy.
● Same-Party Races: One thing you'll find at Daily Kos Elections that you won't find anywhere else are ratings of general-election contests that feature two candidates of the same party. These kinds of matchups occur in the three states—California, Louisiana, and Washington—that use some type of top-two primary, where all candidates from all parties run together on the same ballot, and the two highest vote-getters advance to a runoff, regardless of party. (In Louisiana, a runoff can be averted if one candidate earns a majority in the first round.)
We actually loathe this system here at Daily Kos Elections, and have written about the extreme problems we have with it many times. But like the Electoral College, it's the system we have, not the one we want, and so we do our best to evaluate how these same-party races will play out. With that in mind, here's a look back at the contests we rated, all of which involved two Democrats:
● CA-17: This rematch pitted Rep. Mike Honda against former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna, who lost a close 52-48 race against the incumbent two years ago. During that contest, Khanna openly ran to Honda's right and unsubtly attacked the congressman for being old and out-of-touch with this district, which covers Silicon Valley. (Wealthy tech entrepreneurs eagerly lined up behind Khanna, turning him into a prodigious fundraiser.)
This time, Khanna figured out whatever went wrong and absolutely smashed Honda, who was bedeviled by ethical questions regarding the commingling of government and campaign resources that led many of his past endorsers to switch sides or stay out. Khanna suffered a late blow when his campaign manager quit after Honda accused him of stealing Honda's campaign data, but it didn't seem to affect the outcome, as Khanna won 60-40. An independent poll from SurveyUSA in mid-October showed a tight contest, but no one ever released any numbers afterwards. The lack of polling here prompted us to shift this race from Lean Khanna to "No Favorite" (the same-party equivalent of "Tossup") just before Election Day, but we should have stuck to our original rating.
● CA-44: This interesting race for a dark-blue open seat in Los Angeles held by Rep. Janice Hahn was one of only two we rated as "Lean" for one side that went the other way. (The other was WI-Sen.) In this case, we concluded that after state Sen. Isadore Hall's solid 40-22 win in the primary over Hermosa Beach City Councilwoman Nanette Barragán, he'd be the favorite in November. Not only did Hall have the support of a wide swath of the California Democratic establishment, but Barragán's home base of Hermosa Beach isn't even in the 44th.
However, Barragán won the backing of EMILY's List, which aired ads for her late. Hall also found himself on the wrong side of a dispute with Greg Glassman, the CEO of the extremely popular exercise company CrossFit, who was furious that Hall ignored his entreaties to support a bill that would have required health warnings on sodas and other drinks with high sugar contents. Glassman responded by helping raise money for Barragán and even let her campaign at CrossFit gyms, which have a cult-like following.
In the end, Barragán pulled off a narrow 51-49 upset. As we discussed when we first noted Glassman's involvement in the race, there were some parallels with another Democrat-versus-Democrat contest in 2012, when wealthy former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg helped Gloria Negrete McLeod upset Rep. Joe Baca, who'd earned Bloomberg's ire over his weak stance on guns. While Glassman didn't pour in the same kind of resources that Bloomberg did, this race once again offers a good example of how outside influences can affect same-party contests in unexpected ways.
● CA-46: There was little suspense in this all-Democratic general election, with ex-state Sen. Lou Correa dispatching Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen 70-30 in this Orange County seat.
● WA-07: State Sen. Pramila Jayapal decisively won the all-Democratic general for this Seattle seat, beating state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw 57-43. Jayapal was an enthusiastic supporter of Bernie Sanders during the presidential primary, and his fundraising network helped her bring in plenty of money.
Legislative:
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso brings us the goods:
Michigan SD-04: Democrat Ian Conyers easily took this seat, defeating Republican Keith Franklin by a 79-21 margin.
Missouri SD-04: Democrat Jacob Hummel had no trouble here, defeating Republican Bryan Young by a 71-26 margin, with Libertarian Michael Lewis taking the remainder.
New Jersey SD-18: Democrats held this seat, with Patrick Diegnan Jr. defeating Republican Roger Daley by a 61-39 margin.
New Jersey AD-18: Democrats held this seat; Robert Karabinchak defeated Republican Camille Ferraro Clark by a 60-40 margin.
North Dakota HD-15: Republican Greg Westlind defeated Democrat Brenda Bergsrud by a 61-39 margin here.
Virginia SD-01: Democrat Monty Mason won here with 58 percent; Republican Thomas Holston got 38 percent and Libertarian John Bloom took 4 percent.
Virginia HD-93: In the only close contest of the bunch, Democrat Michael Mullin defeated Republican Heather Cordasco by a 53-47 margin.
Other Races:
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: Republican incumbent Joe Arpaio's decades long reign of terror has come to an end, with him losing his bid for a seventh term 55-45 to Democrat Paul Penzone. Arpaio defeated Penzone 51-45 in 2012.
Arpaio has served since 1993, and he's earned a notorious reputation for mistreating prisoners, including serving them discolored green and blue meat, forcing them to wear pink underwear, and sending them to live in tents, where he's bragged that temperatures could reach 145 degrees in the summer heat. Arpaio has also wasted taxpayer money on his quest to "investigate" President Barack Obama's birth certificate, and he still refuses to accept its legitimacy, even after Donald Trump left him stranded on Birther Island.
But the sheriff's department's racial profiling policies against Hispanics are what got him into trouble with the law. In October, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that it would charge Arpaio with criminal contempt of court for violating a judge's orders to curtail his department's unconstitutional racial profiling practices. A trial is tentatively set for December. If found guilty, Arpaio could face jail time.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.