While we thrash about trying to decide what this election means about America, the reality is this: Trump won because of James Comey. Here’s Bloomberg:
Trump’s analysts had detected this upsurge in the electorate even before FBI Director James Comey delivered his Oct. 28 letter to Congress announcing that he was reopening his investigation into Clinton’s e-mails. But the news of the investigation accelerated the shift of a largely hidden rural mass of voters toward Trump.
[snip] Trump’s team chose to focus on this electorate, partly because it was the only possible path for them. But after Comey, that movement of older, whiter voters became newly evident. It’s what led Trump’s campaign to broaden the electoral map in the final two weeks and send the candidate into states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan that no one else believed he could win.
[snip] The message Trump delivered to those voters was radically different from anything they would hear from an ordinary Republican: a bracing screed that implicated the entire global power structure—the banks, the government, the media, the guardians of secular culture—in a dark web of moral and intellectual corruption. And Trump insisted that he alone could fix it.
Kevin Drum wrote about this in some more detail, and provided this handy piece of data demonstrating the full impact of Comey’s announcement about the emails 10 days before the election. As you can see, the people who decided one week before the election, i.e., just after Comey pulled his dirty trick, broke hard for Trump. Those deciding last-minute—after the shock wore off, more news came out, and then Comey said “never mind”—were a different story.
No Comey, no Trump.