Leading Off:
● AL-Sen: On Friday, Donald Trump nominated GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions to serve as U.S. attorney general. There are many reasons that Sessions is a horrific choice to lead the Justice Department, but if the Republican Senate confirms him, it will be up to GOP Gov. Robert Bentley to choose Alabama's new senator. Sessions' seat is next up in 2020, and there would be a special election to fill the final years of his term. Bentley has the option of holding the special in November of 2018, though he can decide to do it in 2017 or earlier in 2018 if he wants. Alabama is one of the reddest states in the nation, and Team Blue can pretty much forget about flipping this seat.
There’s something else, too. Bentley, who is term-limited in 2018, has had a pretty horrible year up until now. Back in March, audio recordings emerged of Bentley engaged in explicit conversations with a staffer, all but confirming the existence of an affair that shockingly prompted Bentley's wife of 50 years to file for divorce last year. Lawmakers accused Bentley of using state resources to conceal his relationship, and impeachment proceedings slowly began in the GOP-dominated legislature, but they came to a halt earlier this month at the request of Republican state Attorney General Luther Strange, who is conducting his own investigation into the matter. But to paraphrase another embattled governor of yesteryear, Bentley now has got this Senate seat, and it's fucking golden.
It's far too early to say whom Bentley would pick, or whether he plans to appoint a caretaker who would just hold the seat until the special election or if he’ll go with someone who would run for the rest of Sessions' term. Rep. Robert Aderholt, who has represented a rural seat since 1997, has publicly expressed interest in an appointment. But Rep. Bradley Byrne, who lost to Bentley in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, says he would prefer to stay in the House. (Byrne may have decided to just say no before his former rival could actually reject him.) If Bentley is feeling particularly Machiavellian, he could offer the Senate seat to Strange, the guy who is currently investigating him. If Strange left for D.C., the new Alabama attorney general would be appointed by none other than Bentley. Of course, the optics would look awful for Strange, and he may prefer to run for governor in 2018 anyway.
Senate:
● IN-Sen: Among the many highly vulnerable Democratic senators up for re-election in 2018 is Indiana's Joe Donnelly, who lucked into victory after tea partier Richard Mourdock knocked off veteran Sen. Richard Lugar in the GOP primary, then tore his own campaign to shreds by declaring pregnancy from rape a "gift from God" just weeks before Election Day. Now Donnelly will to once again go before voters in a very red state that rejected the once-popular Evan Bayh by a painful 52-42 margin earlier this month.
Just who will step up to take him on? No one's said anything publicly yet, but Politico mentions Rep. Luke Messer, who just won a third term, as a possibility. However, Messer is also reportedly under consideration to serve as Donald Trump's secretary of education, and he said he was "excited" about Trump's "bold education proposals," so that could well be his first choice. (And securing Senate confirmation is easier than beating an actual senator.)
The Hill also suggests Messer, as well as Rep. Susan Brooks and former Rep. Marlin Stutzman. Earlier this year, Brooks sought to be named the GOP's replacement gubernatorial nominee after Mike Pence took himself off the ballot to join Trump's ticket, but she was passed over by the state party's central committee in favor of Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, who went on to win the general election. Meanwhile, the tea partying Stutzman badly lost this year's Senate primary to Rep. Todd Young, who crushed Bayh's comeback hopes.
● MO-Sen: Dedicated election-watchers know Claire McCaskill's story very well: After polls showed her in rough shape for re-election four years ago, she took a major risk in helping then-Rep. Todd Akin secure the GOP nomination, then went on to a startling 16-point victory thanks to Akin's infamous comments about "legitimate rape," earning both of them permanent spots in political lore—for very different reasons. But come 2018, McCaskill will have to face voters a third time, in a state that has veered sharply to the right, and she won't be able to count on the likes of Akin to save her again.
The NRSC's dream choice to challenge McCaskill this time would likely be Rep. Ann Wagner, who took over Akin's seat in the St. Louis suburbs and is as establishment as they come. (She was a former state party chair, a major fundraiser for George W. Bush, and this past cycle, the finance chair for the NRCC.) Let's see if they can get her through a primary, though.
Other possibilities mentioned in a new Politico piece include Reps. Vicky Hartzler and Billy Long. Hartzler is a religious conservative in the Akin mold and an anti-gay jihadist. Long, meanwhile, is a classic tea partying outsider (before he came to Congress, he was an auctioneer), and he beat several established politicians in the GOP primary in 2010. He'd be the perfect person to try something like that again.
As for McCaskill, she can perhaps take a measure of hope from Secretary of State Jason Kander's performance in his bid for Senate earlier this month. Though Kander lost, he only did so by a 49-46 margin, running far ahead of Hillary Clinton, who got crushed 57-38. Kander ran a spectacular campaign and had no voting record on Capitol Hill to pick apart, but at least he showed that some Missourians still have an appetite for ticket-splitting—just as they did four years ago when McCaskill was last on the ballot.
● MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has announced that he'll seek a third term, and he's in for a tough race. Trump carried Montana 56-36, and Tester will almost certainly be a top GOP target. Tester did win re-election in 2012 against then-Rep. Denny Rehberg 49-44 as Romney was winning 55-42, so he does have experience finding ticket-splitters. Tester, who just finished chairing the DSCC, also shouldn't have any problem raising money,
Rep. Ryan Zinke, who represents the entire state in the House, has been a rumored GOP candidate for a while. And sure enough, Zinke recently told Politico that he's preparing "to get a lot of pressure" to run, but he's "in no hurry to make a decision." National Democrats made a late effort to unseat Zinke this year partially to help Tester's re-election chances. However, Zinke defeated well-funded Democrat Denise Juneau 56-41. Tester himself also said that he'd bet a steak dinner that Zinke challenges him. (Then again, Tester said in 2013 that he'd "bet the farm" that ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer would run for the Senate. Schweitzer did not run but as far as we know, Tester has not handed over his farm to anyone.)
● ND-Sen: We can—and will—debate all cycle long about which Democratic senator is most endangered in 2018, but suffice it to say, Heidi Heitkamp is on that list. Thanks heavily to her personal appeal, Heitkamp saved this seat for Team Blue when Kent Conrad retired in 2012, beating a meh-but-not-awful opponent in the form of Republican Rick Berg by less than 1 point. Now she'll have to work her magic a second time, and she's likely to face a tougher combatant than the whiny Berg.
An obvious choice is the guy who succeeded Berg, Rep. Kevin Cramer. Cramer hasn't said anything about his intentions, but incoming NRSC chief Cory Gardner recently sung his praises and said he'd be a "very good" candidate. Cramer was a very early Trump backer and could conceivably take a post in the administration, but in a radio interview shortly after the election, he said he thought such a move would be "unlikely."
● UT-Sen: Former congressional aide Evan McMullin waged a last-second presidential bid as an "independent conservative" this year, and he pulled in 21 percent of the vote in Utah, thanks to the support of Mormons disgusted by Donald Trump. Now he says he's not ruling out a bid against GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch, who recently started saying he might run for an eighth term in the Senate in 2018 despite earlier pledges that this term would be his last. McMullin didn't specify what party label he'd run under, but presumably, he's a Republican.
Hatch, though, handily fended off what had looked like a strong intra-party challenge back in 2012, and there's plenty reason to think he could do so again. Still, with Utah being a one-party state, it's possible that an ambitious Republican will nevertheless want to make a go of it. The Salt Lake Tribune asked two politicians, state Attorney General Sean Reyes and state Sen. Deidre Henderson, if they were considering bids, and while neither sounded gung-ho, both declined to outright say no.
● DSCC: On Friday, incoming Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer announced that Maryland Sen.-elect Chris Van Hollen will chair the DSCC for the 2018 cycle. Team Blue is almost completely on the defensive, and Van Hollen will not have an easy job. Van Hollen chaired the DCCC during the 2008 Democratic wave, and stayed for the 2010 GOP wave.
Gubernatorial:
● FL-Gov: A few days ago, wealthy personal injury attorney John Morgan, who funded Florida's successful medical marijuana ballot measure this year, was first mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for this open seat in 2018. Morgan has confirmed that he's interested, saying he will "need a lot of time to think about it. There are obvious drawbacks and hurdles." Morgan didn't explicitly say he'd run as a Democrat, though he has strongly backed Democratic candidates and liberal policies.
A few other Democrats have expressed interest in running. Rep. Gwen Graham, whose north Florida seat became safely red due to court ordered redistricting, hasn't announced that she's in, though she made it clear last month she was planning to run. Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn is also publicly considering and says he'll decide next year, and wealthy Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine has also publicly expressed interest.
Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer said in 2015 that he was "unequivocally not running for governor," but the Sun-Sentinel recently wrote that Dyer is now "reportedly interested in running," though he doesn't appear to have publicly said anything new. Both state Sen. Jeremy Ring and Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler have also flirted with bids. However, Ring recently said he was interested in running for state chief financial officer, while Seiler said he is "especially interested in the attorney general position."
● GA-Gov: A multitude of Republicans are considering running for this seat in 2018, and we can add another to the list. Bruce LeVell, who headed the Trump campaign's “national diversity coalition” (a group that actually did exist), is reportedly thinking about getting in. LeVell, who owns a jewelry store, also used to serve as the chair of the Gwinnett County GOP.
● NJ-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno says she'll decide on a 2017 gubernatorial run over the holidays, but it would be a big surprise if she passed on a bid. State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is already running in the GOP primary, while Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick is considering.
Termed-out Gov. Chris Christie chose Guadagno to be his running mate in 2009. However, it's been clear for a while that there's tension between the two, and while Christie hasn't signaled who he wants to be his successor, he made it very clear on Thursday that he doesn't want it to be Guadagno. The lieutenant governor has given the keynote speech to the New Jersey State League of Municipalities conference in Christie's absence over the last three years, and her planned Thursday address ahead of her likely campaign was highly anticipated. But at the last minute, Christie stepped in to give the speech himself, which was widely interpreted as a "fuck you" to Guadagno.
Guadagno is almost certainly hoping that Christie resigns to join the Trump administration, which would give her some time to govern before she has to face the voters. However, Christie said in his keynote, knowing full well that Guadagno was in the room listening, that, "I have no reason to believe, as we stand here today, that I will do anything other than serve out my full term as governor and turn the keys of the office over to whoever you select in November 2017 to replace me." Christie also defended a voter-approved gas tax that Guadagno opposed. Christie never mentioned his second-in-command during his speech, but his declaration that he doesn't "have to pretend you can fix this problem without increasing a tax" sure sounded like it was aimed at her.
But given how Christie’s popularity with New Jersey voters utterly cratered during his presidential campaign and subsequent toadying to Trump, he may actually be doing a favor for Guadagno by creating separation between the two of them. Democrats, though, aren’t apt to let voters forget their ties.
● NM-Gov: Even before Election Day, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall began talking about running for New Mexico’s open governorship in 2018. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham also confirmed her interest, and she recently said that she would have to decide before the end of 2017. A few weeks ago, Lujan Grisham notably didn't rule out facing Udall in a primary.
Attorney General Hector Balderas has also been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate. While Balderas hasn't said much publicly, strategist Caroline Buerkle, who has worked with him on previous campaigns, put out a statement saying that Balderas "has deep concerns about our state and will evaluate serving in a greater capacity in the near future." Balderas ran for the Senate in 2012 in the primary against then-Rep. Martin Heinrich, the national party favorite. Balderas, who was the state auditor at the time, lost 59-41, but he went on to be elected attorney general in 2014.
On the GOP side, Rep. Steve Pearce, who badly lost the 2008 Senate race to Udall, has expressed interest in running for governor. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez also talked about running last year, and his office recently put out a statement reaffirming that "he is seriously considering it." Sanchez ran for the Senate in 2012 but his bid went nowhere, and he dropped out well before the primary. Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry has also been mentioned, though he doesn't seem to have said anything about his 2018 plans.
House:
● KS-04: On Friday, Donald Trump nominated Kansas GOP Rep. Mike Pompeo to run the CIA. If Pompeo is confirmed by the Senate and resigns from the 4th Congressional District, GOP Gov. Sam Brownback will have five days to call a special election, which will then need to be held 45 to 60 days later. This seat, which is based around Wichita, backed Romney 62-36, and it should stay red without much trouble. However, the GOP nominee won't be chosen by primary voters. Instead, Republicans will hold a district convention made up of 126 party activists from across the 4th District who will pick their nominee.
Pompeo was mentioned as a possible candidate for governor in 2018, but we can cross his name off the list now. Many local and national Republicans also won't be devastated if Pompeo's promotion keeps him from running for office ever again. When Pompeo first ran for the House in 2010, his vanquished primary foes were so pissed at him that they all refused to endorse him after he won the nomination. One of them even said she left a congratulatory voicemail right after the primary, but he didn't bother to call back. Another, wealthy oilman Wink Hartman, was so angry after his primary defeat that he even flirted with running in the general election as a Libertarian, a stunt that could have cost Team Red this seat.
Pompeo’s feuds with his own party didn’t end there. Earlier this year, he considered challenging Sen. Jerry Moran in the GOP primary; when he ultimately decided in April that he wouldn't go for it, he claimed that "former federal sleuths were hired to investigate me and my family." Amazingly, a recent CNN article reveals that Pompeo wasn't just being paranoid: The NRSC, which Moran chaired in 2014, did in fact hire a retired FBI agent to dig up dirt on Pompeo, though it's not clear what, if anything, was found. But if Democrats—or vengeful Republicans—are looking to derail Pompeo's nomination to head the CIA, they know where to start.
● KY-06: While Lexington Mayor Jim Gray lost to GOP Sen. Rand Paul 57-43, he did quite a bit better than Hillary Clinton, who lost Kentucky 63-33. Local Democrats began talking up Gray as a possible candidate against GOP Rep. Andy Barr immediately after Election Day, or as a possible statewide contender for another year. Gray only told reporters on election night that he was only saying "never say never" to a future bid.
Kentucky's 6th District, which includes Lexington, is the only one of the commonwealth's five GOP-held seats that could conceivably flip anytime soon. It's still not particularly friendly turf for Democrats, though: Romney won it 56-42, and our preliminary numbers say that Trump carried it 55-39. However, our initial analysis also says that Gray won the seat 52-48. And it’s not unheard of for Democrats to fare well downballot here: 2015 gubernatorial nominee Jack Conway also won the 6th 49-46 while he was losing statewide 53-44. It's unclear if Gray is interested in a House bid, but if he decided to face Barr, he could win in a good year for Team Blue.
● LA-03, LA-Sen, LA-04: The GOP pollster Trafalgar Group gives us our first look at all three of Louisiana's Dec. 10 federal runoff races. Two of them are uninteresting: In the Senate contest, Republican John Kennedy leads Democrat Foster Campbell by a wide 58-35, and in the red 4th District, Republican Mike Johnson leads Democrat Marshall Jones 60-35. But the all-GOP race for the 3rd, which is based around Lafayette, is a bit more interesting, since retired police officer Clay Higgins leads Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle 50-42.
Angelle ran for governor in 2015, performing well in the southwest corner of the state, and he soon set his sights on this seat once Rep. Charles Boustany left to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Angelle decisively outraised the rest of the field, and he even earned Boustany's endorsements. But on the day of the jungle primary, Angelle only outpaced Higgins 29-27, with none of the other 10 candidates taking more than 9 percent of the vote. Making the result even more notable, Higgins, a former spokesman for the St. Landry Parish Sheriff's Office, is almost penniless: As of Oct. 27, Angelle led Higgins $341,000 to $11,000 in cash-on-hand.
But Higgins is a local celebrity from his "Crime Stoppers" videos, which featured him dramatically calling out criminals and have drawn national attention. In perhaps his most famous segment, Higgins stood in front of a burglarized supermarket/restaurant and told the perpetrator, "The sheriff likes Stelly's Restaurant, and so do I. The food here is good, and the folks are friendly. We're going to identify you, arrest you, and put you in a small cell. After that, I'm going to have a cheeseburger here with fries and a Coke and leave a nice tip for the waitress. Meanwhile, your next meal will be served through a small hole in a cell door."
This is only one poll, so it's far too early to say we're in for an upset next month. But Higgins demonstrated on Nov. 8 that he's capable of getting plenty of votes without much cash. And as we said just after the jungle primary, an Angelle defeat would hardly be the biggest surprise of 2016.
● SD-AL: Right after Republican Rep. Kristi Noem kicked off her 2018 gubernatorial bid on Monday, the jockeying began for her House seat. Dusty Johnson, who served as a public utilities commissioner and as chief of staff to term-limited Gov. Dennis Daugaard, said early last week that he was considering getting in; now he’s moved to "planning" to run. Another Republican, Secretary of State Shantel Krebs, said she was seriously considering. There are plenty of other South Dakota Republicans who could also jump in.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
