Leading Off
● Demographics: Pew's landmark study from a year ago that looked at the changing composition of the middle class over the decades has become an interesting lens through which we can look at the 2016 presidential election. Pew's definition of middle class was "between two-thirds of and twice the national median size-adjusted household income," and, despite the conventional wisdom that declines in the manufacturing sector were wreaking havoc in one-time manufacturing-centered communities, the metro areas with the largest percentage of residents still in the middle class leaned heavily toward those mid-sized Rust Belt cities. (For instance, the top three percentage-wise—Wausau, Janesville, and Sheboygan—were all in Wisconsin.)
So now, Pew has matched up the list of metro areas by middle class percentage with the 2016 election results, and, as you probably anticipated given the "Rust Belt" descriptor, the places with the largest "middle class" communities are some of those that swung the hardest in the GOP direction. The question remains, though, whether they swung precisely because of their middle-classness, or because of other variables (those communities' heavy whiteness, or perhaps just tactical factors like the Clinton campaign's lack of investment in the upper Midwest for most of the campaign). Conversely, Hillary Clinton held ground or even gained in many metro areas that are disproportionately lower-class (which tend to be smaller Sun Belt cities with a large Hispanic population) or upper-class (which includes some of the largest cities).
Of the 57 predominantly middle class metros that Pew breaks out, Donald Trump defended all 27 of the ones won by the GOP in 2008, but Clinton lost 18 of the 30 that the Democrats won that year. Those experiencing the biggest swing to the GOP in the 2008-16 period are Johnstown, PA; Muskegon, MI; Michigan City, IN; Wausau, WI; and Monroe, MI.
Senate
● CT-Sen: Former wrestling impresario Linda McMahon, who spent almost $100 million of her own money on two unsuccessful bids for Senate in 2010 and 2012, has been tapped by Donald Trump to run the Small Business Administration. McMahon could have run against Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy once again in 2018, but presumably this move takes her out of the running, assuming she's confirmed by the Senate.
● IN-Sen: Freshman Sen. Joe Donnelly is one of the most vulnerable Democrats up in 2018, and he may have a GOP challenger soon. Rep. Luke Messer hasn't said much about his plans, but unnamed sources "close to" the congressman tell The Hill that Messer is "preparing to run," though he probably won't announce until 2017. If Messer gets in, he may not have the GOP primary to himself, though. Rep.-elect Jim Banks didn't rule out his own campaign when asked, and Team Red has a deep bench in Indiana.
● LA-Sen: Either Saturday's Senate runoff is going to be a dull affair, or the biggest polling debacle of 2016—bigger than November's!—is just days away. The University of New Orleans' latest survey gives Republican John Kennedy a 62-33 lead over Democrat Foster Campbell. Meanwhile, GOP pollster Trafalgar Group's new poll gives Kennedy a 56-40 lead, a drop from his 58-35 edge a few weeks ago, but still not particularly close.
● OH-Sen: Republican state Treasurer-in-name-only Josh Mandel only entered Ohio's Senate race on Wednesday, but later that same day, we got our first poll. The survey, from Republican pollster WPA Research, finds Mandel with a 40-39 lead on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. However, no demographic information or crosstabs were included with the poll, and we have no other data against which we can compare it, so it's impossible to say whether or not it offers an accurate read.
We also don't know who if anyone the client was, though from the looks of it, we'd guess this question was tacked on to a larger survey that wasn't focused on the Senate race. (For what it's worth, Mandel doesn't appear to have been a WPA client back in 2012, when he ran the first time.)
And as we've noted, there's a good shot Mandel won't even wind up being the GOP nominee. Two congressmen, Jim Renacci and Pat Tiberi, are openly considering bids, while UVA's Kyle Kondik mentions a new potential candidate, state Sen.-elect Matt Huffman, as another possibility.
Gubernatorial
● AZ-Gov: While Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema frustrated us in 2015 by never quite ruling out a Senate run, she's taking her name out of contention early for governor. Sinema recently told The National Journal's Zach Cohen that, "I am not running for governor." That's the type of clear, definitive no that we look for from politicians. Republican Gov. David Ducey is up for re-election in 2018 and so far, no credible Democrats have shown much interest in challenging him.
Still, we don't know if Sinema is contemplating a bid for Senate once again. Republican Sen. Jeff Flake is also up for re-election this cycle, and since he's one of just two GOP senators who look potentially be vulnerable in 2018, Democrats are going to want to try to find a credible challenger for him.
● NJ-Gov: Republican Steve Rogers, a member of the Board of Commissioners in the small North Jersey town of Nutley, has launched a bid for governor. For a race of this caliber, Rogers is a borderline Some Dude, though he worked as some sort of security advisor to Donald Trump, so that could be pleasing to a lot of New Jersey Republicans if they're looking for someone who supports the unabashedly racist wing of the their party. (Trump carried the Garden State's GOP primary with a massive 80 percent of the vote.) But without an actual Trump endorsement, Rogers is likely to go nowhere, and when has Donald Trump every done anything for anyone who's done anything for him?
● NM-Gov: Now that Democratic Sen. Tom Udall has ruled out a bid for governor, the floodgates are open. State Attorney General Hector Balderas, a Democrat, has been talked about as a potential candidate for a while, and one of his former campaign strategists hinted he was looking at running a few weeks ago. A Balderas spokesperson has now confirmed that he's considering and will "make a determination in the near future."
A few other Democrats have also made noises about getting in. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham has talked about running for a while, though she only said she'd decide before the end of 2017. Last month, state Sen. Joseph Cervantes told NM Politics that he's "looking at the best ways to advance New Mexico, and any consideration of course begins with an effective governor." And businessman Alan Webber, who lost the 2014 gubernatorial primary to then-Attorney General Gary King 35-23, says he's looking at another run.
● OK-Gov: GOP state Attorney General Scott Pruitt had talked about running for governor in 2018, but unfortunately, he may have a different gig soon. Donald Trump has nominated Pruitt, a notorious climate-change denier, to serve as head of the Environmental Protection Agency. In any case, we can take Pruitt off the potential candidate list in Oklahoma.
● VA-Gov: While GOP Rep. Rob Wittman announced about a year ago that he would run for governor in 2017, his heart never really seemed in it. Wittman raised very little money during the first half of 2016, and he recently told a local NPR affiliate that he might stay in the House after all. So it wasn't much of a surprise when Wittman announced on Thursday that he was dropping out of the gubernatorial race.
Three major Republicans are currently running in next year's primary: ex-RNC head and 2014 Senate nominee Ed Gillespie; state Sen. Frank Wagner; and Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart, an original Trump belieber. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam faces no notable opposition for the Democratic nod.
House
● LA-03, LA-04: The GOP pollster Trafalgar Group takes a second look at both of Louisiana's Saturday House runoffs. Unsurprisingly, Republican Mike Johnson leads Democrat Marshall Jones 67-30 in the conservative 4th District. However, the all-GOP runoff for the 3rd District is a bit more interesting. Retired police officer Clay Higgins leads Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle 49-46; just before Thanksgiving, Trafalgar gave Higgins a stronger 50-42 edge.
Mayoral
● Albuquerque, NM Mayor: Republican Richard Berry isn't seeking a third term in 2017, and New Mexico's largest city is in for its first open-seat race in 20 years. The non-partisan race will take place on Oct. 3, and there will be a runoff if no one takes a majority. In 2009, Albuquerque only required a runoff if no one cleared 40 percent of the vote, and Berry won with 44 percent as two Democrats split the rest of the vote. However, the city's electoral laws have changed since then and now mandate a runoff if no candidate wins more than 50 percent.
The Albuquerque Journal recently took a look at who might run next year. On the Democratic side, they report that state Auditor Tim Keller; ex-state Treasurer James Lewis; City Councilor Ken Sanchez; ex-Bernalillo County Commissioner Deanna Archuleta; and attorney Brian Colón are considering. For Team Red, they mention City Council President Dan Lewis and County Commissioner Wayne Johnson as possible candidates. Albuquerque is a reliably blue city in most races, but Berry's easy re-election win in 2013 gives the GOP some reason to hope.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: Former Ohio Sen. John Glenn, a man whose name is legend as the first American to orbit the earth, has died at the age of 95. After his heroics as an astronaut in 1962, Glenn served four terms in the Senate, though it wasn't easy to get there. In 1970, Glenn ran in the Democratic primary against Howard Metzenbaum, losing 46-45. Metzenbaum went on to lose the general election but was appointed to Ohio's other Senate seat to fill a vacancy in 1974. Glenn challenged Metzenbaum in the primary again and this time won, 54-46, following his famous "Gold Star Mothers" speech in which Glenn, a Marine Corps veteran, lacerated Metzenbaum for saying he'd never held a job.
Glenn prevailed that fall in a landslide and went on to win his next two elections by wide margins, though he won his fourth and final race by a narrower 51-42 over Republican Mike DeWine. Glenn also unsuccessfully ran for president in 1984, winning no primaries and losing the nomination to Walter Mondale. After announcing his retirement from the Senate but before leaving office, Glenn returned to orbit in 1998 aboard the space shuttle Discovery, becoming the oldest person ever to fly in space at the age of 77.
● DKE: The 3D Experience: Daily Kos Election's Jeff Singer will be interviewed at Laughing Liberally Boston's political comedy show on Saturday at 8 PM ET at The Riot Theater in Jamaica Plain. Tickets can be purchased for $8 here, and proceeds from the show will be donated to the Cambridge fire relief efforts. (Past shows have sold out.) If you're a DKE reader in the Boston area, hope to see you there!
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
