Before I get too deep here, I want to be clear on a few things:
- I believe Trump won this race by running a deeply racist campaign.
- I believe Trump unleashed white nationalist forces in this country in a way that we have not seen in the modern era.
- I believe that addressing the bias toward women, PoC and other historically marginalized populations in our system is a top priority and is rightfully the major focus of the Democratic Party.
- I believe that the challenges of white supremacy can only be met by dismantling our existing institutions and rebuilding them since they were mostly formed to protect white supremacy.
- Lastly, I do believe the decisive factor in this campaign was the economic message.
With that out of the way, I had an energetic discussion on here last night about why the Democratic Parties economic message is falling flat and why Democrats are struggling on so many electoral levels across the country. A recurring theme in response to my position was that Hillary won the people who cited the economy as their number one issue. This is correct, here is the data:
most important issue facing the country
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
foreign policy
13%
|
60% |
33% |
7% |
immigration
13%
|
33% |
64% |
3% |
economy
52%
|
52% |
41% |
7% |
terrorism
18%
|
40% |
57% |
3% |
24558 respondents
Not only did Hillary win people who felt the economy was the number one issue, a majority of people did feel it was the number one issue. Case closed right? That is what most people on Kos seem to think. But, no not really.
-
VOTING BEHAVIOR IS MORE COMPLEX THAN JUST PRIMARY CONCERNS
If you have read through my posts, engaged in dialogue with me at all on this site you know I am pretty strident in my efforts to change people’s mind on our economic policy choices as a party. It has been my number one issue within the party for decades now. In the real world, I have started a Criminal justice reform group in my area, so economics is not my only issue, I just think bad economics is a bad problem for the party and it has lead to electoral disaster across the country in federal and state elections.
-
Despite believing that the parties number one priority should be addressing its adherence to a failing economic ideology, I actually backed Biden in the 2008 primary. I did that fully knowing Biden was a particularly bank friendly candidate. Why would I do that if I believe the party has been dead wrong on this issue? Because in 2008, after 8 years of a bullshit storm coming out of the administration in power I felt the Democrats needed someone able to cut through the shit storm of lies.
-
In my estimation at that time, there was no one better at that than Joe Biden. he won me over on Meet the Press one Sunday morning when some Republican on the panel said some ridiculous thing, as they always do, and Joe’s response was to loudly slap both hands on the top of the table, lean back in his chair while rolling his eyes and loudly exclaiming “Oh come on, you don’t really believe that!”
-
So, like I said, voting patterns are not completely captured by the “what is your top priority” questions. Voting behavior is more complex than that.
-
The Rest of the Exit Polling Data Make It Clear the Economy WAS a Major Factor
So yeah, Clinton won the 52% of the 52% of people that cited the economy as their number one issue in this election. No refuting that data. That is not the only data point on the economy to look at though.
-
Here is the data for how people feel about the economy specifically:
condition of national economy
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
excellent
3%
|
83% |
16% |
1% |
good
33%
|
76% |
18% |
6% |
not good
41%
|
40% |
53% |
7% |
poor
21%
|
15% |
79% |
6% |
And, more simply portrayed:
condition of national economy
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
good
36%
|
77% |
18% |
5% |
poor
62%
|
31% |
62% |
7% |
62% of those that voted think the economy is poor, and Trump crushed Clinton with this group. Sure Clinton mega crushed Trump with those that think things are fine, but that was only 26% of the total vote.
UPDATED — 6:30 Tuesday!
GUYEDA pointed out that Clinton actually wins on the economy based on these national exit polling numbers. That is, in fact, correct. I fell into the trap of looking at the biggest number in the biggest number set while not adequately accounting for how small the smallest number in the smallest number was in the national numbers. I need to do better. However, I ran the data
However, I ran the data on the big swing states that flipped to trump this cycle and here is what you get:
|
VIEW OF THE ECONOMY
|
SAMPLE SIZE
|
CLINTON
|
TRUMP
|
NATIONALLY
|
NOT GOOD
|
15,226
|
4,720
|
9,440
|
GOOD
|
8,841
|
6,807
|
1,591
|
TOTAL
|
24,067
|
11,528
|
11,031
|
|
|
WISCONSIN
|
NOT GOOD
|
1,859
|
502
|
1,264
|
GOOD
|
1,158
|
903
|
232
|
TOTAL
|
3,017
|
1,405
|
1,495
|
|
|
PENNSYLVANNIA
|
NOT GOOD
|
1,908
|
553
|
1,278
|
GOOD
|
998
|
818
|
170
|
TOTAL
|
2,906
|
1,372
|
1,448
|
|
|
OHIO
|
NOT GOOD
|
2,208
|
552
|
1,568
|
GOOD
|
1,155
|
820
|
243
|
TOTAL
|
3,363
|
1,372
|
1,810
|
|
|
MICHIGAN
|
NOT GOOD
|
1,659
|
481
|
1,095
|
GOOD
|
1,125
|
844
|
225
|
TOTAL
|
2,784
|
1,325
|
1,320
|
|
|
FLORIDA
|
NOT GOOD
|
2,718
|
761
|
1,821
|
GOOD
|
1,359
|
1,128
|
190
|
TOTAL
|
4,077
|
1,889
|
2,011
|
So, peeling back the data to a more granular level does show that the economy was decisive in the specific states that turned the election from blue to red this cycle in 4 out of 5 cases.
ISOLATING WHO WOULD BE BETTER ON THE ECONOMY
The next exit polling chart asks which candidate would better handle the economy. This one was close, but Trump won with 48% of voters that indicate Trump would handle it better. So, while when asking as one of a group of other concerns Clinton won, when you isolate the economy as an issue, Trump clearly won.
who would better handle the economy?
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
clinton
46%
|
95% |
1% |
4% |
trump
48%
|
3% |
94% |
3% |
RACE AND GENDER QUESTIONS
Further, when you look at the gender and race issues that were polled for in the exit polling, most people were on what we consider were the right side of the issue. While the criminal justice question is not as decisive, still 48% to 43% of voters see a problem there. On the treatment of women question, 70% think Trump’s behavior was indeed deplorable. And it totally sucks that did not translate into more votes for Clinton. That said, it points to the importance the role of other issues played in the outcome of this election.
does the country's criminal justice system:
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
treat all fairly
43%
|
23% |
73% |
4% |
treat blacks unfairly
48%
|
72% |
22% |
6% |
does donald trump's treatment of women bother you?
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
yes
70%
|
65% |
29% |
6% |
no
29%
|
10% |
87% |
3%INCO |
INCOME DATA
The last chart I will look at in this post also shows the income breakdown on support in terms of votes and how that data clearly shows why the case made by the economic liberals today makes sense. To over-simplify, middle-class voters are feeling the economic squeeze, they have enjoyed very little of the tax relief for the last few decades, but make too much to qualify for any benefit support. This is how Trump was able to capitalize with a campaign of white resentment politics. (you may view these people as simply whiny privileged white folks, and I do not even necessarily disagree, but they vote and we need to perform better with them in any case)
income
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
under $50k
36%
|
53% |
41% |
6% |
$50k-$100k
30%
|
46% |
49% |
5% |
$100k or more
34%
|
47% |
47% |
6% |
I HAVE UPDATED THIS WITH ADDITIONAL INCOME DATA FROM EXIT POLLING
income
|
clinton
|
trump
|
other/no answer
|
under $30,000
17%
|
53% |
40% |
7% |
$30k-$49,999
19%
|
52% |
41% |
7% |
$50k-$99,999
30%
|
46% |
49% |
5% |
$100k-$199,999
24%
|
47% |
48% |
5% |
$200k-$249,999
4%
|
49% |
47% |
4% |
$250,000 or more
6%
|
46% |
46% |
8% |
So Trump won handily with the middle-class, and given that Clinton did win the popular vote, this makes it clear that those most angry are the middle-class folks in red state America.
Exit Polls Still Only Tell Us So Much
Frankly, the exit polls are very useful in understanding what the people who turned out did, and why they did it, but we face the harsh reality that nearly 45% of the eligible voting population did not bother to vote at all. Apathy grows out of a feeling that it does not matter what you do and who you vote for, nothing will change to your benefit.
It is important to target messaging to meet the needs of people already engaged in the process, but the parties message needs to also be more expansive and when elected the government needs to deliver tangible results for most people. Democrats are running against a party whose core philosophy is that government can’t work. Every time democrats gain power and fail to deliver on changing the dynamics of our modern economy in any tangible way republicans will win.
They have easier political ground to fight from, Democrats have to deliver. Decades of shrinking economic share has led to significant discontent. A discontent that made a campaign of white resentment politically viable for the first time in decades. That is what we must confront.
Conclusion
The claim that the exit polls support that economics was not an important factor in this race are an example of confirmation bias. People see that first question, which issue was most important to you, see that Clinton won it and tell themselves, see, we were right, our economic message was fine. reading further down the polling data, however, suggests a different picture.
Democrats face a serious problem electorally across the country.
DELEGATION CONTROL BY PARTY
Delegations
|
Republican Control
|
Democratic Control
|
Split
|
Presidency
|
1
|
|
|
House
|
32
|
17
|
1
|
Senate
|
20
|
18
|
12
|
Goverorships
|
33
|
16
|
1
|
State Houses
|
32
|
17
|
1
|
State Senates
|
35
|
13
|
2
|
Total Delegations Controlled
|
153
|
81
|
17
|
State One Party Control
|
25
|
6
|
19
|
Unless we get real about the entire picture of the problems we face as a party, it is hard to see how we change this.
I know this, relying on people to get mad at Republicans should not be the only way we get back into power at all. Although, sadly, it will probably play a huge role. The next collapse is coming, and soon.
Exit polling data pulled from CNN