I have reposted this with this opening disclaimer:
Before I get too deep here, I want to be clear on a few things:
- I believe Trump won this race by running a deeply racist campaign.
- I believe Trump unleashed white nationalist forces in this country in a way that we have not seen in the modern era.
- I believe that addressing the bias toward women, PoC and other historically marginalized populations in our system is a top priority and is rightfully the major focus of the Democratic Party.
- I believe that the challenges of white supremacy can only be met by dismantling our existing institutions and rebuilding them since they were mostly formed to protect white supremacy.
- Lastly, I do believe the decisive factor in this campaign was the economic message.
I, like most of blue state America, and blue voters in red states, was shocked by the results of this last election. I mean a man who ran a campaign that nearly openly courted White Nationalist movements as part of the campaign.
I felt that shock, despite figuring that Trump had a good shot at winning just based on what I observed when I spent about 4 months back in Ohio shortly after the primary season ended there. I also figured a significant number of the never Clinton people meant it. While Bernie was still in the race, I myself made the never Clinton case (I did vote for her to support my sisters). I believe firmly to this day, the principal political challenge, within the Democratic Party, that must be addressed is a radical transformation to confront the economic challenges of our time. The established “Clinton wing” of the party has only ever viewed the change needed as an incremental process. As a result, economic policy has lurched ever rightward over time as a result.
I must emphasize, the party is rightly focused on fighting for social and racial justice, I cite the economic issues as a principal party problem because I believe the party has been on the wrong track on how to deal with economic issues, we have been fighting that fight the wrong way. There is no approach to addressing economic concerns worth our time that does not include creating a more equitable system where everyone has access to the levers of economic success.
This post is not meant to delve into those details, so I will leave it there. I mention it to lay context for what I found when you look at exit polling data overlayed with the outcome of each election. I think you might be surprised at what the data shows. I know I was.
THE NARRATIVE SINCE NOVEMBER 8TH
The damned white working class clamored around Trump. Racism drove Trump to victory. White Nationalism has been enabled and enjoyed significant growth under Trumps candidacy to set America back 50 years. Trump does pose a serious risk to what progress has been made on a variety of issues, but the narrative that white people suddenly overwhelmingly support Trump because of his White Nationalist campaign IS NOT SUPPORTED by the data. Honestly, I was shocked to discover that.
So, let’s start looking at data on the history of the white vote. I will post data and add relevant commentary immediately below the data. My assessments reflect a near stream of consciousness interpretation of what I am looking at. I am eminently persuadable on my interpretation, so please add your thoughts in the comments!
Note: Exit Polling data is not always the most precise data. You will observe odd things in this data, like 1976, 1984 and 1988 where there is no race data for 3rd party votes. That said, given the scale of our elections, it still provides relevant information regarding patterns over time, which is the thrust of most of my commentary on this data.
White Voting History - Percent of Vote
|
Campaign Year
|
Total
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
3rd Party
|
1976
|
89%
|
48%
|
52%
|
|
1980
|
88%
|
36%
|
56%
|
8%
|
1984
|
86%
|
34%
|
66%
|
|
1988
|
85%
|
40%
|
60%
|
|
1992
|
87%
|
39%
|
41%
|
20%
|
1996
|
83%
|
44%
|
46%
|
10%
|
2000
|
81%
|
43%
|
54%
|
3%
|
2004
|
77%
|
41%
|
58%
|
1%
|
2008
|
74%
|
43%
|
55%
|
2%
|
2012
|
72%
|
39%
|
59%
|
2%
|
2016
|
71%
|
37%
|
57%
|
6%
|
Looking at the white vote as a percent of the total vote and then looking at white vote per party reveals some interesting information.
First, the demographic shift happening is clearly evident in this data. From 1976 to today white vote as a percent of the total vote has declined 17 points. It is clear that block is becoming less powerful over time. That said, it will remain immensely powerful for a long time to come.
Second, the white vote has actually moved away from Republicans from their peak support in 1994 at a decline of 9 points at a similar clip as they have moved away from Democrats, who have experienced an 11 point drop since their peak in 1976. In the end, white people’s support of the Republican party has been much more volatile. If what is viewed as even a potentially viable candidate enters a race the impact on white vote seems to effect the republican share of white vote more.
Third, both candidates lost ground with white voters this cycle. Trump did not see some huge unprecedented surge in white vote. Next set of data is interesting on this front.
Last point on the above data. Mitt Romney OUTPERFORMED Trump with white people. Trump lost 2% share from Romney’s total. Democrats should say this at the beginning of any public statement about any issue they talk about in the media. This will push Trump’s ego to the breaking point.
White Voting History - Raw Votes
|
Campaign Year
|
Total Vote
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
3rd Party
|
1976
|
72,571,294
|
34,834,221
|
37,737,073
|
|
1980
|
76,128,517
|
27,406,266
|
42,631,969
|
6,090,281
|
1984
|
79,681,780
|
27,091,805
|
52,589,975
|
|
1988
|
77,855,483
|
31,142,193
|
46,713,290
|
|
1992
|
90,851,152
|
35,431,949
|
37,248,972
|
18,170,230
|
1996
|
79,908,781
|
35,159,864
|
36,758,039
|
7,990,878
|
2000
|
85,395,048
|
36,719,871
|
46,113,326
|
2,561,851
|
2004
|
94,173,764
|
38,611,243
|
54,620,783
|
941,738
|
2008
|
97,290,542
|
41,834,933
|
53,509,798
|
1,945,811
|
2012
|
93,051,102
|
36,289,930
|
54,900,150
|
1,861,022
|
2016
|
97,302,563
|
36,001,948
|
55,462,461
|
5,838,154
|
So this Raw Vote data is pretty revealing. Perot really drove down white voter support for the republican party to the point where it took them to 2004 to recover to their peak in 1984. I think the thing this shows is that white voters historically seem to be driven by economics. This is likely a result of privilege, they are not threatened by the conservative impulse to restrict liberties for historically marginalized populations, so they are free to respond electorally, in relatively dramatic fashion, when they are experiencing economic pain.
So, while we saw a growth in the white vote, most of it benefitted Gary Johnson. It seems likely to me what happened was Trump was able to backfill some his losses with the white vote with his white resentment politics, but, given the history revealed in this data, his economic change message drew most of his backfill, while Clinton just lost white voters to Johnson with no backfill amongst white voters.
In practical terms, this means Trump made modest gains with the white vote, but it was not at all anomalous. We need to stop giving white nationalism so much credit for this outcome. We only empower them by doing so. Sure they played a role in backfilling his losses, but they just are not the driving force behind this electoral outcome and we need to stop acting as if they did. We do need to fight them tooth and nail, we just do not need to give them more due than they deserve for what happened.
White Voting History - Change in Raw Votes
|
Campaign Year
|
Total Vote
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
3rd Party
|
1976
|
|
|
|
|
1980
|
3,557,222
|
-7,427,955
|
4,894,896
|
6,090,281
|
1984
|
3,553,264
|
-314,461
|
9,958,006
|
|
1988
|
-1,826,297
|
4,050,388
|
-5,876,685
|
|
1992
|
12,995,668
|
4,289,756
|
-9,464,318
|
18,170,230
|
1996
|
-10,942,370
|
-272,085
|
-490,933
|
-10,179,352
|
2000
|
5,486,267
|
1,560,007
|
9,355,286
|
-5,429,027
|
2004
|
8,778,716
|
1,891,373
|
8,507,457
|
-1,620,114
|
2008
|
3,116,777
|
3,223,690
|
-1,110,985
|
1,004,073
|
2012
|
-4,239,439
|
-5,545,003
|
1,390,352
|
-84,789
|
2016
|
4,251,460
|
-287,982
|
562,310
|
3,977,132
|
This data maps the election to election change in total white votes.
The white vote actually grew in favor of Obama in 2008 and then by 2012 declined for Obama dramatically. It was only outpaced by the decline in the Carter white vote in 1980 race.
I think 2000 showed Bush’s support with white evangelicals. Again, when you view the data this way, it is clear when the white population is dissatisfied with the economic situation 3rd parties actually attract white voters. Third parties are traditionally less involved in the so-called “culture war” issues.
The three peaks of white 3rd party support were from largest to smallest were Perot in 1992, John Anderson in 1980 and Johnson this year. Again, the fact that where the difference in the white vote is shown is the data is in flight to 3rd parties. We are not seeing a shift in actively endorsing the racist views of a candidate like Trump, that actively racist vote seems to be at a constant.
I agree, it is terrible that so many whites can readily discount the threat that a Trump poses PoC, however, I do take some comfort in the fact Trump’s campaign was not some real clarion call.
Ultimately, it is NOT a sign that a significantly larger population of people got involved simply to cast an affirmatively racist vote. Still not good enough, but, not as discouraging as the current existing campaign narrative has been since November 8th.
White Voting History - Change in Percent Participation
|
Campaign Year
|
Total Vote
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
3rd Party
|
1976
|
|
|
|
|
1980
|
-1%
|
-12%
|
4%
|
8%
|
1984
|
-2%
|
-2%
|
10%
|
-8%
|
1988
|
-1%
|
6%
|
-6%
|
0%
|
1992
|
2%
|
-1%
|
-19%
|
20%
|
1996
|
-4%
|
5%
|
5%
|
-10%
|
2000
|
-2%
|
-1%
|
8%
|
-7%
|
2004
|
-4%
|
-2%
|
4%
|
-2%
|
2008
|
-3%
|
2%
|
-3%
|
1%
|
2012
|
-2%
|
-4%
|
4%
|
-0%
|
2016
|
-1%
|
-2%
|
-2%
|
4%
|
This final view of the white vote history data just serves to drive home the point where 3rd party growth peaks at times of high dissatisfaction with the establishment. I need to dig in and see what the right track wrong track and economic satisfaction data shows in these elections and cross reference. I don’t want to rehash points I have made above, but the data presented in this format drives some of them home so I decided to keep it in here for your viewing pleasure.
Oh yeah, I also wanted to include this data to point out that both Trump and Clinton lost 2% of their parties white support this cycle.
SOME CONCLUSIONS
So, given the mood and narrative since election night, I find this historic look moderately encouraging. It sucks that it is obvious too many white people do not take racial and social justice issues as seriously as they should.
That said, this notion that many more white people than usual voted republican simply to vote against black people is just not supported by the data. What I mean by that is Donald’s racist appeal did not really energize a whole new massive segment of voters. The racists just stayed firmly in their camp. The only real difference (and it is a terrible difference, one that must be confronted vigorously) is they felt able to express themselves more openly. But this narrative that the white nationalists attracted a massive wave of newly active racist voters is clearly false. That is good news.
It is sickening that they feel free to speak out in a way they have not for a few decades, but the task of returning them to the political wilderness will be easier if we ourselves realize that the white nationalists are still an extremely marginal group. It will help us keep our focus to defeat this bullshit on the right targets.
I guess my final take away is, we have a lot of work to do, but take heart.
That, and we should hector Trump about Romney beating him with white people every chance we get.
All data sourced from uselectionatlas.org… and Cornell University RoperCenter.
I have included the data tables for each campaign year, by race below for your own enjoyment.
NATIONAL EXIT POLLING RESULTS BY RACE - 1976 TO 2016
2016 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
137,045,863
|
48%
|
65,844,610
|
46%
|
62,979,636
|
6%
|
8,221,617
|
White
|
71%
|
97,302,563
|
37%
|
36,001,948
|
57%
|
55,462,461
|
6%
|
5,838,154
|
Black
|
12%
|
16,445,504
|
89%
|
14,636,498
|
8%
|
1,315,640
|
3%
|
493,365
|
Latino
|
11%
|
15,075,045
|
66%
|
9,949,530
|
28%
|
4,221,013
|
6%
|
904,503
|
|
|
2012 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
129,237,642
|
51%
|
65,918,507
|
47%
|
60,934,407
|
2%
|
2,384,728
|
White
|
72%
|
93,051,102
|
39%
|
36,289,930
|
59%
|
54,900,150
|
2%
|
1,861,022
|
Black
|
13%
|
16,800,893
|
93%
|
15,624,831
|
6%
|
1,008,054
|
1%
|
168,009
|
Latino
|
10%
|
12,923,764
|
71%
|
9,175,873
|
27%
|
3,489,416
|
2%
|
258,475
|
|
|
2008 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
131,473,705
|
53%
|
69,499,428
|
46%
|
59,950,323
|
2%
|
2,023,954
|
White
|
74%
|
97,290,542
|
43%
|
41,834,933
|
55%
|
53,509,798
|
2%
|
1,945,811
|
Black
|
13%
|
17,091,582
|
95%
|
16,237,003
|
4%
|
683,663
|
1%
|
170,916
|
Latino
|
9%
|
11,832,633
|
67%
|
7,927,864
|
31%
|
3,668,116
|
2%
|
236,653
|
|
|
2004 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
122,303,590
|
48%
|
59,027,115
|
51%
|
62,039,572
|
1%
|
1,236,903
|
White
|
77%
|
94,173,764
|
41%
|
38,611,243
|
58%
|
54,620,783
|
1%
|
941,738
|
Black
|
11%
|
13,453,395
|
88%
|
11,838,988
|
11%
|
1,479,873
|
1%
|
134,534
|
Latino
|
8%
|
9,784,287
|
53%
|
5,185,672
|
44%
|
4,305,086
|
3%
|
293,529
|
|
|
2000 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
105,425,985
|
48%
|
51,009,810
|
48%
|
50,462,412
|
4%
|
3,953,763
|
White
|
81%
|
85,395,048
|
43%
|
36,719,871
|
54%
|
46,113,326
|
3%
|
2,561,851
|
Black
|
10%
|
10,542,599
|
90%
|
9,488,339
|
9%
|
948,834
|
1%
|
105,426
|
Latino
|
7%
|
7,379,819
|
61%
|
4,501,690
|
38%
|
2,804,331
|
1%
|
73,798
|
|
|
1996 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
96,275,640
|
49%
|
47,400,125
|
41%
|
39,198,755
|
10%
|
9,676,760
|
White
|
83%
|
79,908,781
|
44%
|
35,159,864
|
46%
|
36,758,039
|
10%
|
7,990,878
|
Black
|
10%
|
9,627,564
|
84%
|
8,087,154
|
12%
|
1,155,308
|
4%
|
385,103
|
Latino
|
5%
|
4,813,782
|
73%
|
3,514,061
|
21%
|
1,010,894
|
6%
|
288,827
|
|
|
1992 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
104,426,611
|
43%
|
44,909,806
|
37%
|
39,104,550
|
20%
|
20,412,255
|
White
|
87%
|
90,851,152
|
39%
|
35,431,949
|
41%
|
37,248,972
|
20%
|
18,170,230
|
Black
|
8%
|
8,354,129
|
83%
|
6,933,927
|
10%
|
835,413
|
7%
|
584,789
|
Latino
|
2%
|
2,088,532
|
61%
|
1,274,005
|
25%
|
522,133
|
14%
|
292,395
|
|
|
1988 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
91,594,686
|
46%
|
41,809,476
|
53%
|
48,886,597
|
1%
|
898,613
|
White
|
85%
|
77,855,483
|
40%
|
31,142,193
|
60%
|
46,713,290
|
|
|
Black
|
10%
|
9,159,469
|
89%
|
8,151,927
|
11%
|
1,007,542
|
|
|
Latino
|
3%
|
2,747,841
|
70%
|
1,923,488
|
30%
|
824,352
|
|
|
|
|
1984 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
92,653,233
|
41%
|
37,577,352
|
59%
|
54,455,472
|
1%
|
620,409
|
White
|
86%
|
79,681,780
|
34%
|
27,091,805
|
66%
|
52,589,975
|
|
|
Black
|
10%
|
9,265,323
|
91%
|
8,431,444
|
9%
|
833,879
|
|
|
Latino
|
3%
|
2,779,597
|
66%
|
1,834,534
|
34%
|
945,063
|
|
|
|
|
1980 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
86,509,678
|
41%
|
35,480,115
|
51%
|
43,903,230
|
8%
|
7,126,333
|
White
|
88%
|
76,128,517
|
36%
|
27,406,266
|
56%
|
42,631,969
|
8%
|
6,090,281
|
Black
|
10%
|
8,650,968
|
83%
|
7,180,303
|
14%
|
1,211,135
|
3%
|
259,529
|
Latino
|
2%
|
1,730,194
|
56%
|
968,908
|
37%
|
640,172
|
7%
|
121,114
|
|
|
1976 Campaign
|
%Total
|
Total Vote
|
%Dem
|
Total Dem
|
%Rep
|
Total Rep
|
%3rd Party
|
3rd Party
|
Total Votes
|
100%
|
81,540,780
|
50%
|
40,831,881
|
48%
|
39,148,634
|
2%
|
1,560,265
|
White
|
89%
|
72,571,294
|
48%
|
34,834,221
|
52%
|
37,737,073
|
|
|
Black
|
9%
|
7,338,670
|
83%
|
6,091,096
|
17%
|
1,247,574
|
|
|
Latino
|
1%
|
815,408
|
82%
|
668,634
|
18%
|
146,773
|
|
|