Republican primary voters handed Team Blue a huge gift in Nevada’s swingy 3rd Congressional District on Tuesday night. Businessman Danny Tarkanian defeated state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, the choice of Gov. Brian Sandoval and national Republicans, by a surprisingly wide 32-24 margin; gun-obsessed Assemblywoman Michelle Fiore came in third with 18.
Roberson wasn’t a particularly exciting candidate, but he was a good fundraiser who didn’t have many obvious flaws that would hurt him in a general election. However, Tarkanian is something completely different. Tarkanian has unsuccessfully run for office four times, but his wealth and family name—his late father was legendary UNLV basketball coach Danny Jerry Tarkanian—have kept him from being just another Some Dude.
This pedigree, however, can’t mask Tark’s serious personal baggage. Perhaps most seriously, Tarkanian and his family guaranteed several bad loans in their failed effort to build an “equestrian destination resort.” In 2012, Tarkanian was hit with a $17 million judgment as a result of that debacle, leading him to declare bankruptcy because of course he didn't have anything like $17 million to repay his creditors. (He finally settled the matter for just $525,000.) Tarkanian emerged from bankruptcy protection last year, just in time to launch another campaign.
And there’s the matter of ideology, too. Tarkanian is an ardent conservative, which helped him in the primary against Roberson but will only undermine him in November. While Roberson and his allies attacked Tarkanian on his bankruptcy, Tarkanian pounded Roberson for his key role in passing a tax increase last year, a toxic attack in GOP politics if there ever was one. Sensing trouble, the super PAC Ending Spending shelled out a massive $1.6 million in a desperate, last-minute effort help Roberson in the final days of the race.
However, early voting, which always plays a big role in Nevada politics, had already been underway for some time when Ending Spending cranked up its involvement, so a significant proportion of votes were already banked. If the group had started spending a bit earlier, perhaps it could have saved Roberson, but it turned out to be too late. The group also didn’t spend very wisely: Ending Spending rather bizarrely ran ads painting Fiore as a classic corrupt politician, a move that likely drove some of her supporters toward the incendiary Tarkanian rather than the staid Roberson (if it had any impact at all.)
Sen. Harry Reid and the DCCC spent months trying to find a viable candidate here, but they finally got synagogue president Jacky Rosen to jump in. Rosen, who easily defeated attorney Jesse Sbaih 62-13 on Tuesday, may not have been Team Blue’s first or even third choice, but she was the one who stepped up to the plate in the end, and she’s the one who gets the privilege to take on Tarkanian. Both parties have signaled that they’ll spend big in this 50-49 Obama seat, and for all of Tarkanian’s failings, he could still win. But there’s no question that Tark gives Democrats a much greater chance to flip this must-win seat than Roberson would have. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.