Leading Off:
● NH-Gov: This is creepy. Former state securities regulator Mark Connolly, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor, sent a fundraising email to his fraternity brothers at Dartmouth College calling for the reinstatement of their frat, Alpha Delta, which was kicked off campus just last year. Believe it or not, Alpha Delta was the inspiration for the movie Animal House, and it got the boot for good reason. In a hazing ritual in April 2015, members "branded pledges on their buttocks"; two years earlier, the frat had been placed under suspension after a student was arrested for "urinating on a woman from a second-floor balcony at the Alpha Delta house."
Making matters more troubling, the governor of New Hampshire is an ex officio member of the college's board, so if Connolly were to win, he'd have direct influence on this issue. In his email, Connolly wailed that it was "awful to see" his old frat house "sitting there empty." Is he really campaigning on the argument that an organization whose members burn the flesh of fellow humans and literally piss on women has been unfairly maligned and deserves to be restored to its former glory? Fortunately, a Dartmouth spokesman made it clear that there are no plans to reinstate Alpha Delta, saying, "Derecognition is permanent." But if Connolly became governor, would he respect that? If there's one thing these kinds of fraternities are not known for, it's respect.
Senate:
● AZ-Sen: While ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward hasn't raised much money for her Aug. 30 GOP primary against Sen. John McCain, Politico reports that a super PAC backing her is spending $500,000 on a TV campaign for her. The group, which is creatively named "KelliPAC," is out with an ad accusing McCain of betraying voters on amnesty, "first with Ted Kennedy, then with the Gang of Eight." That's kind of a weird line of attack since it's been a long time since Kennedy, who has been dead for almost seven years, has been utilized as a conservative villain, and most voters probably won't know what "Gang of Eight" is supposed to mean.
The narrator goes on to accuse McCain of having "joined with liberals to bail out Wall Street and bust the debt limit, and supported Hillary's disastrous war in Libya." That's a bit more clear, though this feels like another commercial that tries to cram just too much information into 30-seconds, rather than focusing on one issue that could be utilized against McCain in a memorable way. (And if KelliPAC really wanted to tie McCain to Hillary Clinton, they could mention that he got into a vodka-drinking contest with her in 2004, and reportedly lost.) Still, the narrator's conclusion that McCain's "getting his kicks cheerleading for the other team," is a good line. The rest of the spot praises Ward as a solid conservative.
The only recent primary poll we've seen came from a Republican firm called Data Orbital, and they had McCain up 50-29. A pro-McCain group called Arizona Grassroots Action has been airing primary ads against Ward, while McCain has mostly been running commercials focusing on the general election with Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.
● FL-Sen: Rich guy Carlos Beruff spent most of his GOP primary campaign running as the Donald Trump of Florida. However, Trump recently endorsed Sen. Marco Rubio's re-election campaign, and Beruff now seems to be taking a page out of Jeb Bush's presidential campaign playbook instead. Beruff's new commercial features several people saying they used to like Rubio, but are angry that he barely showing up to vote in the Senate. Bush and his allies of course famously tried to make Rubio's spotty attendance an issue, but while Rubio's presidential bid failed for many reasons, this probably wasn't one of them. Rubio himself is out with another commercial that features several veterans praising his work on the VA.
● IL-Sen: The pro-Mark Kirk group Independent Voices for Illinois is out with a TV spot hitting Democrat Tammy Duckworth for her support for the Iran nuclear deal. Politico reports that the ad is running in Rockford and in a few downstate markets. In other words, the commercial is not running in the Chicago market, where about 70 percent of the state lives.
● IN-Sen: Blergh. When Evan Bayh unexpectedly decided to run for his old Senate seat, he insisted he wasn't moving back to Indiana because he'd "never left." But a new CNN report shows that Bayh did indeed move to Washington after leaving Congress in 2010, and listed his DC address on everything from fishing licenses to campaign contribution forms to the deed for another home in South Florida.
Bayh still maintains a home in Indianapolis, but as CNN puts it, his campaign "did not respond directly to questions about how often he stayed at his Indiana residence." All of this, of course, is reminiscent of the experience of former GOP Sen. Richard Lugar, who likewise was very slow to acknowledge how many days he'd spent in Indiana over the course of his long Senate career. (Less then two months before the Republican primary, which he wound up losing, Lugar finally admitted he'd been in-state just 14 percent of the time during his 36 years in office.)
And what's so frustrating is that this is all so unnecessary. Bayh could have easily kicked off his campaign by saying, "You know, I'm a lifelong Hoosier, and I love it here. I spent a few years living elsewhere, but I realized that I just missed Indiana too much, and I knew I had to come back here, where I belong." Instead, he's put himself in a position of defending something that plainly isn't true. Maybe it won't matter in the end, but we'll see if Republicans broaden their attacks to include this issue, too.
● NH-Sen: CBS/ YouGov: Maggie Hassan (D): 42, Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 41 (45-36 Clinton)
● OH-Sen: Republican Sen. Rob Portman has run several ads taking credit for his work on a bill combat opioid addiction. As we've noted before, Democrats have criticized Portman's bill because it lacks funding to pay for the programs it authorizes, though Senate Democrats backed it anyway. Now, AFSCME is out with what the National Journal says is a $1.1 million ad arguing that, despite what his commercials want voters to think, Portman "actually voted against the funding needed for the program." The narrator goes on to charge Portman with "voting twice for budgets that threatened cuts to drug treatment programs."
Portman is also out with yet another commercial focusing on opioids, but this time he targets his Democratic rival, ex-Gov. Ted Strickland. The spot features Montgomery County Sheriff Phil Plummer accusing Strickland of cutting "funding for drug treatment and prevention," and arguing that by cutting mental health services, Strickland made it "tougher for guys like me to keep you safe." As usual, the GOP doesn't mention that Strickland was governor during the worst years of the Great Recession. Unfortunately, Portman has led in recent polls, so Team Red's decision to portray Strickland as an awful governor who mysteriously left Ohio broke and slashed important programs may very well be working.
● PA-Sen: Planned Parenthood is launching a second wave of ads hammering GOP Sen. Pat Toomey on abortion rights, and it uses the most effective material possible: Toomey's own words. The spot features footage from a 2009 interview Toomey did with Chris Matthews when he was first running for the Senate, and it's just killer:
Toomey: I would support legislation in Pennsylvania that would ban abortion, and I would—I would suggest that we have penalties for doctors who perform them.
Matthews: Would you put people in jail for performing abortions?
Toomey: At some point doctors performing abortions I think would, would be subject to that sort of penalty.
Clear as day. There's almost never anything that makes for stronger attack ad footage than video of your opponent saying things he should never have said. Planned Parenthood says it's spending $1.3 million on this campaign, with $1.1 million devoted to TV and the balance for digital ads. In June, PP and EMILY's List spent a similar amount on another abortion-themed ad.
Meanwhile, Mike Bloomberg's super PAC, Independence USA, is airing a second ad on Toomey's behalf, backed by a $400,000 buy. This one features the daughter of the principal at Sandy Hook Elementary School, who recounts how her mother "died that day, protecting the young children in her care." She then goes on to thank Toomey for "cross[ing] party lines to do the right thing" on background checks for gun buyers. This message is in stark contrast with a recent ad from the Senate Majority PAC that also featured a devastating clip of Toomey, this time saying just a month ago, "I have had a perfect record with the NRA."
Incidentally, here's something notable: Thanks to Independence USA's FEC reports, we now know that Bloomberg's pollster is none other than Doug Schoen, a Fox News "Democrat" who dispensed terrible advice to Hillary Clinton during her first presidential campaign (wonder why she's done so much better this time?) and who also infamously opined that Obama should not seek a second term in 2012. How is it possible that anyone pays this guy for anything?
Gubernatorial:
● IN-Gov: Democrat John Gregg ran a few ads against Republican Gov. Mike Pence, only to see Pence drop his re-election campaign in order to serve as Donald Trump's running mate. Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb soon became the new GOP nominee, but Gregg is still sticking with the same basic strategy he was using against Pence.
In a new spot, the narrator argues that Holcomb is Pence's handpicked successor, and says that a Holcomb governorship will mean "four more years of wages not keeping up, a failed economic record. It means teaching to the test, and failing our teachers and kids." The rest of the ad briefly promotes Gregg's plan for jobs and education. So far, the little-known Holcomb has not run any commercials.
● MT-Gov: Wealthy Republican Greg Gianforte is out with another TV spot. Gianforte stands in front of a truck and tells the audience that he's "spent his life serving Montana." Gianforte says his business has created 500 local jobs, and that he started a group "that provides zero interest loans to rural entrepreneurs," as well as a number of local charities. National Democrats have run ads calling Gianforte "a millionaire from New Jersey" (Gianforte moved to Montana 20 years ago), and this spot may be his way of pushing back. Once again, Gianforte's TV ad doesn't mention Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, though his allies at the RGA have aired commercials hitting the incumbent.
● NC-Gov: Last week, Marist released a poll showing Hillary Clinton taking North Carolina by an improbable 9-point margin, and giving Democrat Deborah Ross a 46-44 edge over GOP Sen. Richard Burr. There was also a gubernatorial portion tucked in, and Marist gives Democrat Roy Cooper a 51-44 lead over GOP Gov. Pat McCrory. The only other poll we've seen in North Carolina in the last month came from PPP, and they had Cooper leading just 43-42; that sample backed Clinton by a similar 43-41 margin.
● WA-Gov: In races where the Democratic and Republican nominees are very clear-cut, Washington's top two primary still serves a useful purpose; it acts as a super-poll with a sample size of more than one million. Washington's gubernatorial primary from two weeks ago tells us that Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee has a substantial lead on GOP challenger Bill Bryant, with Inslee outpacing him 49-38 (with the balance going to various minor candidates).
Monday's poll released by Elway Research very closely mirrors those results; Elway puts Inslee ahead 48-36, with 16 percent undecided. Inslee's ratings have also improved since Elway's previous poll back in December. Elway uses the irritating excellent/good/fair/poor formulation (which, if you treat the relatively inert "fair" as a negative, tends to make politicians look much worse than straightforward approve/disapprove), but Inslee is at 43 "excellent" or "good" and 52 "fair" or "poor," up from a previous 39/58. And in case you were wondering about whether Donald Trump's odd promises to put Washington into play will generate some coattails for Bryant, well … no. In fact, Hillary Clinton leads 43-24.
Inslee is also out with a new TV ad, which seems to strike a strangely defensive tone for a guy who's facing little current trouble with his re-election. Inslee's commercial pushes back against a web video from the state Republican Party (which probably drew few eyeballs) that hit Inslee over the controversy concerning the state's main mental hospital, which has seen staffing problems and several escapes. The ad touts Inslee's work to improve funding, and, as a toss-in in the last few seconds, links Bryant to Trump for good measure. And that Inslee ad may have actually spooked Bryant into making a move. On Monday morning, Bryant announced that he won't be voting for either Trump or Clinton in November, joining Rep. Dave Reichert in #nevertrump land.
House:
● AZ-04: Rep. Paul Gosar, a member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, doesn't look like he's in much danger in the Aug. 30 primary for his safely red northern Arizona seat. Gosar's opponent Ray Strauss, a pastor and city councilor from the small town of Buckeye, has barely raised anything, and there's no sign that conservative voters are sick of Gosar. Still, Politico reports that a group called Right Way PAC has spent $211,000 on mail and radio ads targeting the incumbent. There's little information on Right Way, though Gosar is arguing that he's being targeted by the House leadership, as well as by lobbyists and Wall Street.
It doesn't look like they're making a particularly serious effort to oust Gosar right now. GOP establishment groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the tea party-friendly Club for Growth spent heavily in the primary for an open Georgia seat (which the establishment-backed Drew Ferguson won) and in the primary that cost Freedom Caucus member Tim Huelskamp his Kansas House seat, and Right Way's expenditures here are paltry in comparison. If more groups get involved in Arizona in the next two weeks it'll be a good sign that Gosar is vulnerable, but that's not happening yet.
● FL-01: State Rep. Matt Gaetz is continuing to make the most of his big financial edge ahead of the Aug. 30 primary for this safely red Pensacola seat. Gaetz's newest spot features several retired soldiers praising Gaetz's work for veterans.
● FL-10: Ex-state Democratic Party Chair Bob Poe is up with another spot ahead of the primary for this safely blue Orlando seat, and he once again focuses on guns. Poe appears in a room full of people and tells the audience that "[t]oday, 91 people will die from gun shots." He continues by noting the massacre at Pulse and decrying that "[i]n too many parts of our community, people wake to gunfire every night, but nobody seems to care. That ends now." Independence USA, which is Michael Bloomberg's super PAC, also recently ran a spot supporting ex-Orlando Police Chief Val Demings that showed her giving a speech where she talked about gun violence. The only recent poll, which came from Demings' allies at the DCCC, gave her a huge lead over Poe and state Sen. Geraldine Thompson.
● FL-19: While ex-Ambassador Francis Rooney has spent massive sums of money on ads ahead of the primary for this safely red seat, a group called Constitutional Conservatives is going up with commercials hitting Rooney's foes, former congressional aide Chauncey Goss and ex-Secret Service agent Dan Bongino. The ads accuse Goss of raising taxes (a charge he denies), and hit Bongino for only recently moving to Florida. According to the FEC (here and here), the group has spent $64,000 on media placement.
● FL-26: Businesswoman Annette Taddeo is up with her second spot ahead of her Democratic primary with ex-Rep. Joe Garcia. Taddeo talks about supporting working families and taking a stand "against the offensive rhetoric of Donald Trump that hurts so many of us." Taddeo does not mention Garcia or GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo.
● HI-01: On Saturday, Colleen Hanabusa took 80 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary for her old House seat. Hanabusa had given up her place in Congress in 2014 to run against appointed Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz, a primary she lost by just 1,636 votes. However, a few weeks before the candidate filing deadline, freshman Rep. Mark Takai announced that he would not seek re-election due to pancreatic cancer. Hanabusa soon began making noises about running again, and she cleared the field of any serious challengers: Takai also endorsed her before he died last month. Hanabusa faces only minor Republican opposition, and she should also have no trouble winning the November general election to fill the final months of Takai's term.
● IN-04, IN-05: On Saturday, Reps. Todd Rokita and Susan Brooks won back the GOP nominations for their safely red seats.
Both members had won the Republican primaries in May with ease. However, because Indiana law forbids anyone from appearing on the general election ballot twice, Rokita and Brooks had to drop their campaigns to run for governor after Gov. Mike Pence was picked as Donald Trump's running mate and ended his own re-election campaign. But the state Republican Party chose Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb as the new gubernatorial nominee, and Rokita and Brooks quickly announced that they would seek re-election to the House.
While several local Republicans expressed interest in running for an open seat in Congress, only a few Some Dudes chose to go up against the incumbents. Unsurprisingly, the caucus of local precinct chairs in each House seat gave Rokita and Brooks their nominations back.
● MN-08: Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan is up with his first TV spot of the cycle, but instead of beginning with the usual positive messaging that almost every candidate starts their ad campaigns with, Nolan goes right after GOP opponent Stewart Mills. The narrator accuses Mills of running a smear campaign, and argues that Mills "broke his promise to run a positive campaign, spending millions on personal attacks." The narrator then lauds Nolan for fighting for "tougher security on refugees, and a tougher and smarter strategy against ISIS," pushing back on Mills' ads portraying Nolan as weak on national security.
● NY-01: According to Newsday, the NRCC has reserved $1.8 million in TV time to help Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin against Democrat Anna Throne-Holst in this swingy Long Island seat. The Democratic group House Majority PAC made a smaller $545,000 reservation here back in March.
● NY-21: Last week, the New York State United Teachers threw its support behind Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik. Stefanik faces Democratic veteran Mike Derrick, who has aired ads noting that, like Donald Trump, he opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.
Mayoral:
● Honolulu, HI Mayor: Honolulu held its non-partisan primary and to no one's surprise, Democratic incumbent Kirk Caldwell and ex-GOP Rep. Charles Djou both advanced to the November general election. However, while two polls gave Djou a 9-point edge over Caldwell, the mayor actually outpaced Djou 44-43; ex-Mayor Peter Carlisle took just 9 percent.
While Honolulu is very blue, the candidates' stances on the controversial $8 billion Honolulu Rail Transit Project is likely to play a much larger role in the general election than their party affiliations. Caldwell and Carlisle have both been major boosters of the project, while Djou has been much more skeptical, though he's conceded that it will go forward in some manner. It's possible that Carlisle's supporters will flock to Caldwell over the rail issue; however, Carlisle has refused to endorse either candidate.
Grab Bag:
● Demographics: This won't come as a big surprise to anyone who's interested in migration trends—hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans moving from their island to the Orlando area in the last few years is a huge red flag—but the numbers on the changes in the racial composition of Florida's electorate are still pretty remarkable. Politico's Marc Caputo reports on the newest release of voter registration data in the Sunshine State, and the results should terrify Republicans: Florida's voter rolls have expanded by 436,000 since the 2012 election, and only 24 percent of that increase came from non-Hispanic whites.
The gain among Hispanics was 242,000 registrations, or 55 percent of the total, taking Hispanics up to 15.4 percent of all registered voters in Florida. (Non-Hispanic whites still make up 65 percent of the total, but that's a 1.5 percent decline in their share since 2012.) Caputo also adds that currently polling might be underrepresenting these newly-added Hispanics. Pollsters are more likely to be able to reach Cuban-Americans, who tend to be older, likelier to have landlines, and likelier to respond to English-speaking pollsters (and who are more Republican-leaning than other ancestries); they may not be adequately reaching the more recent generations of Puerto Rican and South American immigrants.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.