Rep. David Jolly is one of the most endangered Republicans in the House, but a new survey for St. Pete Polls for the blog Florida Politics gives him a small 46-43 lead over Democrat Charlie Crist. Back in June, just before Jolly officially announced that he would drop his Senate bid and run for re-election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, St. Pete Polls showed the two tied 44-44. This sample gives Hillary Clinton a 47-40 lead in this St. Petersburg seat, which would represent a drop from Obama’s 55-44 victory here four years ago.
But there are a few reasons to be skeptical of this poll. Just days ago, Jolly’s own campaign released a survey showing him tied with Crist 46-46; it’s always good to be wary when an independent pollster shows a candidate doing better than his own internal polls do. St. Pete has also had some problematic results in the past. Most recently, the firm took a look at the Democratic primary in Florida’s 9th District a few days before the Aug. 30 vote, and they did not distinguish themselves. They gave eventual winner Darren Soto just 19 percent of the vote, while Dena Grayson and Susannah Randolph took 33 and 27 percent, respectively.
At the time, St. Pete admitted on Twitter that they even believed their Hispanic sample size was “too small,” noting that just 13 percent of their respondents were Hispanic even though member of this group made up around 23 percent of the electorate in past primaries. And sure enough, Soto (the only viable Hispanic candidate in the contest) did far better than St. Pete Polls predicted, taking 36 percent of the vote; the other two candidates grabbed 28 each. House primaries are tough to poll, but it’s not great that St. Pete released a survey that even they didn’t think provided a realistic snapshot.
However, while Jolly is likely still the underdog, he can’t be counted out. Back in July, Crist released an internal poll giving himself a 50-38 lead, but his campaign had dropped a survey from a different pollster a month before showing him up just 46-43. And while the NRCC, which has a horrible relationship with Jolly, sounds reluctant to spend on his behalf, the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC has reserved $1.6 million to help Crist, a good indication that they don’t think this is an automatic pickup. Daily Kos Elections rates this seats Lean Democratic.