Leading Off:
● IN-Gov: In a new TV spot in Indiana's gubernatorial race, Republican Eric Holcomb blandly talks about job creation. But interestingly, Holcomb brags that he worked with former Gov. Mitch Daniels—whose term in office ended nearly four years ago—yet doesn't say a word about current Gov. Mike Pence. Holcomb, who serves as Pence's lieutenant governor, does say that Indiana has "one of the best job climates in America," but it's notable that he won't say anything about Pence directly. And this is no inadvertent omission, seeing as this is the second time in recent weeks that Holcomb has run an ad reminding voters that he worked for Daniels but ignoring Pence.
Pence was locked in a tough re-election campaign with Democrat John Gregg before he dropped out of the race in order to become Donald Trump's running mate. While Pence had baggage all his own (related in part to his disastrous handling of the outcry over the state's anti-LGBT Religious Freedom Restoration Act last year), Holcomb's entry hasn't changed the picture much, as polls still show a tight race, generally with a small advantage for Gregg.
And Gregg has indeed treated Holcomb like an extension of the man he replaced on the GOP ticket, running commercials telling voters that Holcomb would just represent a continuation of Pence's disastrous policies. Gregg evidently thinks this is an effective strategy, though the limited polling we've seen differs on just how popular (or unpopular) Pence may be. An August Monmouth poll gave Pence a strong 54-33 job approval rating, but a more recent survey from Public Opinion Strategies—which, mind you, is a Republican pollster—found the governor with a very meh 47-45 favorable score.
But Holcomb's refusal to even mention his boss' name is a good indication that he doesn't believe that Pence is much of an asset, which would mean that Gregg is indeed on to something. (Daniels, by contrast, left office very well-liked.) That recent POS poll showed that most voters still don't have an opinion about Holcomb, and he doesn't have much time to change that before Election Day. If Holcomb can successfully sell himself as the second coming of Mitch Daniels, that should boost him in conservative Indiana. However, both Holcomb and Gregg's tactics indicate that, if voters see electing the Republican as the equivalent of giving Mike Pence a second term, Holcomb could have problems in November.
Senate:
● AK-Sen: After spending a week publicly flirting with a write-in bid against Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski, ex-Democratic Sen. Mark Begich announced on Thursday that he wouldn't go for it. It never really made any sense for Begich to try this. There's no reason to think that Murkowski was beatable in a general election in this solidly red state under normal circumstances, and Some Dude Democratic nominee Ray Metcalfe made it very clear that he would not step aside for Begich. (In fact, when Roll Call contacted him last week, Metcalfe said that he "tried to get Mark Begich indicted.")
However, there's a good chance we'll see Begich not only running in Alaska at some point in the future, but actually on the ballot. Back in April, state Republicans sounded confident that the former senator would run for governor in 2018, though independent Gov. Bill Walker hasn't made it clear what his plans are. Begich himself didn't rule out a gubernatorial bid when asked about it on Thursday, only saying, "We'll let the cards play out."
● CA-Sen: Days after the Field Poll gave Attorney General Kamala Harris a 42-20 lead over Rep. Loretta Sanchez, a fellow Democrat, the Public Policy Institute of California finds things much closer. They give Harris a 32-25 lead, with another 24 percent saying they would skip the race. In July, PPIC had Harris up 38-20, and even their pollster says that he's "at a loss to explain what happened in that race that would have made it closer or further apart between now and July." We have several other recent polls here and they all give Harris much larger leads, so in all likelihood, this is just an outlier.
● IL-Sen: In the first hard news we've had in some time on the never-ending lawsuit involving Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, the judge hearing the case has scheduled a conference for all sides to talk on Oct. 5. Over the summer, it appeared that the plaintiffs in the case, two former employees of Duckworth's from back when she ran the state's Department of Veterans Affairs, had settled their claims that Duckworth tried to retaliate against them. But soon thereafter they tried to walk away from the deal and even started appearing in ads run by GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. However, the state attorney general's office, which is defending the matter, has said the agreement is final and wants the judge to enforce it. We'll hopefully know more soon.
● Polls:
● CO-Sen: Colorado Mesa University: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45, Darryl Glenn (R) 32 (44-35 Clinton)
● FL-Sen: Suffolk: Marco Rubio (R-inc) 43, Patrick Murphy (D) 34 (45-44 Trump) (Aug.: 46-33 Rubio)
● IL-Sen: Emerson College Polling Society: Tammy Duckworth (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R-inc) 39 (45-39 Clinton)
● NC-Sen: Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News: Richard Burr (R-inc) 43, Deborah Ross (D) 37 (45-40 Trump)
● NC-Sen: Siena: Ross (D) 46, Burr (R-inc) 42 (41-41 presidential tie)
● NC-Gov: Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News: Pat McCrory (R-inc) 46, Roy Cooper (D) 43 (45-40 Trump)
● NC-Gov: Siena: Cooper (D) 50, McCrory (R-inc) 42 (41-41 presidential tie)
● NV-Sen: Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News: Joe Heck (R) 43, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 36 (43-40 Trump)
● OH-Sen: Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News: Rob Portman (R-inc) 51, Ted Strickland (D) 37 (45-40 Trump)
● WI-Sen: Emerson College Polling Society: Russ Feingold (D) 52, Ron Johnson (R-inc) 42 (45-38 Clinton)
As usual, Fox relies on the combined work of a Democratic pollster, Anderson Robbins Research, and a Republican outfit, Shaw & Company Research. Last cycle, Fox released their final surveys almost a month before Election Day, so it's not a huge surprise that they were very off target (though generally, their polls overestimated Democrats).
Earlier this week, Monmouth released a Florida Senate survey giving Republican Sen. Marco Rubio just a 47-45 lead over Democrat Patrick Murphy, which was much closer than what other groups have found. However, Suffolk gives Rubio a stronger 43-34 edge; the HuffPost Pollster average has Rubio up 49-43, which basically splits the difference between these two groups.
Siena and Fox present very different looks at North Carolina's Senate and especially gubernatorial races. The average gives GOP Sen. Richard Burr a 45-43 lead and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roy Cooper a 47-45 edge. North Carolina gets polled pretty frequently, so we probably won't need to wait long for more numbers.
Gubernatorial:
● NH-Gov: It's been a week since both Democrat Colin Van Ostern and Republican Chris Sununu won their parties' nominations, and neither candidate starts the general election with much dough. Van Ostern leads Sununu in cash-on-hand $102,000 to $57,000. This contest will only receive a fraction of the outside spending that the Senate race is getting, but both contenders will have some air support. The New Hampshire Democratic Party recently began its overall $2 million ad buy, and WMUR reports that the DGA has reserved an additional $2.1 million. The RGA plans to spend $3 million here.
House:
● FL-18: The other day, Democrat Randy Perkins succeeded in getting local TV stations in West Palm Beach to stop airing an ad from the NRCC that accused Perkins's disaster cleanup company of "scamming a school district." Now the NRCC has revised the spot, changing the offending phrase to "grossly overbilling a school district." Perkins doesn't appear to have complained about the updated ad, and given what we know about the incident, he wouldn't appear to have much standing to do so. So it just shows that even if you succeed in knocking a third-party ad off the airwaves, it may be a short-lived victory.
● NJ-05: Democrat Josh Gottheimer recently unleashed a blistering assault on GOP Rep. Scott Garrett in the form of a TV ad that stars retired New Jersey police chief Joe Zadroga, whose son James died of respiratory disease after participating in the rescue efforts at Ground Zero following the 9/11 attacks. The elder Zadroga eviscerated Garrett for his incomprehensible votes against a bill named in his son's honor that provided health care to 9/11 first responders—indeed, Garrett was the only member of New Jersey's congressional delegation to oppose the law.
Now Garrett, who's locked in the toughest race of his career, is trying to respond with an ad of his own. Garrett's spot features a series of first responders who accusing Gottheimer of lying and say that Garrett was "a cosponsor of the very first bill to get first responders their healthcare." This is indeed true, believe it or not, but this fact makes Garrett look far worse, because he ultimately voted against final passage of the legislation that included the Zadroga Act. Garrett claimed at the time that he opposed the overall package because it was a "bloated $1.1 trillion spending bill."
Good luck trying to explain that to voters, though. The final part of Garrett's ad shifts jarringly, as one first responder says, "Josh talks about two massive tax and spending bills," and another claims Gottheimer "would raise our taxes." But there's no attempt to elucidate how these two things are connected, and with good reason: Telling viewers that you tried to block health care for 9/11 responders because of your commitment to abstract conservative principles is never a winner.
This is why multiple police and firefighters unions have taken the unusual step of opposing Garrett's re-election, and a new labor group has joined the fray. The Professional Firefighters Association of New Jersey just issued a slate of endorsements that includes every incumbent member of Congress in the Garden State except Garrett. Instead, they're backing Gottheimer, who is also getting help from another source that also typically supports incumbents, the National Association of Realtors.
The Realtors are spending a hefty $529,000 on mailers for Gottheimer, which is a cost-effective use of funds in a district where TV ads are prohibitively expensive. (This northern New Jersey seat is in the pricey New York City media market.) While Garrett had always enjoyed hefty financial support from the banking and insurance industries, they've finally abandoned him thanks to his retrograde views on gays, and now the real estate industry is following suit.
● UT-04: This is so weird. Sandy Webb is a Utah woman whose father was a deceased Korean War veteran and whose mother had been entitled to monthly death benefits from the Veterans Administration as a result. But in a bit of bureaucratic perversity, when Webb's mother died on Dec. 29 two years ago, the VA demanded Webb return the money it had sent her for the final month of her life, saying "Benefits are terminated the last day of the month before the survivor's death occurs." In other words, had Webb's mom lived three more days, she'd have received full benefits for December free and clear.
Webb was naturally perturbed, and she reached out to two people for help: Republican Rep. Mia Love, her congresswoman, and Matt Gephardt, a consumer reporter for a local TV station. Guess who wound up coming through? Gephardt's team made multiple calls to the VA on Webb's behalf, and ultimately, the VA decided to make an exception, allowing Webb to keep the money. But Love's office didn't even lift a finger:
Sandy says she has been trying to advocate on behalf of other military families, specifically reaching out to Rep. Mia Love, to see what can be done to change the law. She says neither Love nor anyone from her office would even bother to call her back.
Love also didn't want to comment for this story but her spokesperson said, "Good job resolving it for her."
What a glib response! "Yeah, well, we didn't bother to do anything, but nice work doing our job for us." But here's where things get strange. Just the other day, Love started airing an ad that features Webb praising her! Amazingly, the narrator has the chutzpah to say, "When the VA denied a local military family their benefits, Congresswoman Mia Love took action," and even Webb says, "Thanks to Mia Love, I was heard." But we know that none of this happened! What could possibly be going on here? It defies explanation.
Grab Bag:
● Demographics: Pew has a great new report out showing the changing composition of Republicans and Democrats since 1992, with tons of data. When it comes to race, religion, age, and education, the country and Democrats are changing. Republicans, however, are not changing as fast as the nation, if at all. Daniel Donner surveys the trends, with a second piece focusing on education.
● Ad Roundup:
● MO-Sen: In their first spot, the NRSC argues that Democrat Jason Kander has voted to raise taxes and "even voted in favor of Obamacare." The bill the ad brings up was an attempt in the state legislature to establish a state health insurance exchange in 2011, a year after Obamacare was passed, but the narrator's wording makes it sound like Kander was actually in Congress to support Obamacare (he wasn't).
● NV-Sen: The NRSC has a Spanish spot arguing that Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto took luxurious trips while serving as state attorney general.
● PA-Sen: Prosperity for Pennsylvania, a new super PAC set up to help Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, is spending $1 million arguing that Democrat Katie McGinty wants to raise taxes. The commercial features bobbleheads of McGinty, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Senate Majority PAC features a clip of Toomey declaring, "I think the solution is to eliminate corporate taxes altogether."
● NC-Gov: The League of Conservation Voters launches a $700,000 TV buy linking Republican Gov. Pat McCrory to Duke Energy. The narrator invokes the 2014 coal ash spill, where a burst pipe at a Duke stream station spilled 39,000 tons of coal ash into the Dan River. The spot then features newscasters saying that McCrory used to work for the company and benefits from their political contributions, before the narrator accuses McCrory of covering up how dangerous the state's drinking water was after the spill.
● AZ-01: Republican Paul Babeu is out with his first few commercials (here, here, and here). The first two spots, which are each 15-seconds, praise Babeu for his record as Pinal county sheriff. The third is more interesting. The narrator references "smears from outside money" before various people praise Babeu as "honest" and as someone who cares. It concludes with Greenlee County Sheriff Larry Avila declaring, "I am a sheriff, I am a Democrat, and I support Paul."
The commercial doesn't mention any specific allegations against Babeu. However, the DCCC recently ran a spot that featured news reports of the abuse that happened under Republican Paul Babeu's watch at the Massachusetts boarding school he ran. Babeu's ad also starts with a shot of that D-Trip ad.
● AZ-02: Republican Rep. Martha McSally features an Air Force pilot praising her military record and work protecting the A-10 fighter.
● FL-18: Democrat Randy Perkins is out with two more ads (here and here). He promotes his humble origins in the first one, and ties Republican Brian Mast to tea partying ex-Rep. Allen West in the other. This is the second time that Perkins has invoked West, who narrowly lost re-election here in 2012, in his ads.
● MI-07: Republican Rep. Tim Walberg features a father who lost his son to heroin praising the congressman for working with Democrats to combat drug addiction.
● NY-24: The DCCC accuses Republican Rep. John Katko of saying he'd support funding for Planned Parenthood during his 2014 campaign, only to vote to defund it four times in Congress.
● PA-16: In his first ad, Republican Lloyd Smucker goes biographical.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
