Leading Off
● Pres-by-CD: Start spreading the news: We have New York! Yes, our project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide has arrived in the Empire State. You can find our complete data set here, which we're updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.
Campaign Action
Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump 59-37 in the two candidates' mutual home state, a drop from Barack Obama's 63-35 win over Mitt Romney in 2012. Clinton carried 18 of the state's 27 congressional districts, losing six seats that Obama won four years earlier. Rep. Sean Maloney is the only Democrat who holds a Trump seat, while Rep. John Katko is the only Republican with a Clinton constituency, so we'll start with a look at their districts.
Obama carried Maloney's 18th District, located in the Hudson Valley north of New York City, 51-47, while Trump took it 49-47. Republicans didn't seriously target this seat, and Maloney beat his underfunded foe 56-44. However, Maloney pulled off a slim 50-48 win during the 2014 GOP wave, and Republicans may be more inclined to target this seat in the future.
Clinton, meanwhile, won Katko's 24th District, which is based around Syracuse in upstate New York, by a 49-45 spread, but that was a much tighter showing than Obama's 57-41 victory. National Democrats hoped that Katko's punishing 59-40 win over incumbent Dan Maffei in 2014 was just a fluke, and both parties spent real money here last year. However, Katko defeated Colleen Deacon, a former district director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, by a huge 60-39 margin.
We'll turn next to the five GOP-held seats that swung from Obama to Trump.
The 1st District, which covers eastern Long Island, gave Obama a tight 49.6-49.1 victory, but it lurched violently to the right in 2016 and supported Trump 54-42. Team Blue lost this seat in 2014 to Republican Lee Zeldin, but they hoped to retake it last year. However, national Democrats didn't end up spending much in this expensive district (which falls into the New York City media market), and Zeldin defeated Anna Throne-Holst 58-42. The neighboring 2nd District also went from 52-47 Obama to 53-44 Trump. Democrats haven't made a serious effort to oust longtime GOP Rep. Pete King in ages, and Trump's easy win isn't going to help things.
The Staten Island-based 11th District, which is held by Republican Rep. Dan Donovan, went from 52-47 Obama to 54-44 Trump. Staten Islanders are notorious for embracing the exact kind of resentment-fueled politics that's Trump's stock-in-trade, so the result here was unsurprising. In 2014, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm defeated his Democratic opponent 55-42 despite being under indictment on tax evasion charges, portraying his prosecution as politically motivated. Grimm resigned the next month after pleading guilty, but Democrats were unable to find a competitive candidate for the ensuing special election. Donovan won that race 58-40, and Team Blue didn't target him last year.
The 19th District, located in the rural Hudson Valley, was the scene of heartbreak for Democrats. While Obama carried the seat 52-46, Trump won it 51-44. Team Blue hoped that well-funded law professor Zephyr Teachout could beat ex-state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso in this open-seat race, but Faso won 54-46. Finally, the rural 21st District in New York's North Country, hard up by the Canadian border, swung from 52-46 Obama to 54-40 Trump. Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik decisively won the race to succeed a retiring Democratic congressman in 2014. National Democrats showed some momentary interest in trying to unseat her last year but didn't spend much here, and Stefanik easily won her second term 65-30.
Two upstate New York House seats that narrowly backed Romney in 2012 were also very amenable to Trump. The Utica-area 22nd supported Romney only 49.2-48.8, but went for Trump 55-39. Democrats targeted this open seat in 2016, but Republican Claudia Tenney beat Democrat Kim Myers 46-41, with wealthy independent Martin Babinec taking 12. (Babinec had pledged to caucus with the GOP if he won.) The 23rd District, which includes New York's Southern Tier, went from 52-48 Romney to 55-40 Trump. Unsurprisingly, Republican Rep. Tom Reed won another term 58-42 in a race that dropped off national Democrats' radar long before Election Day.
There was one competitive seat where Clinton improved on Obama's performance. Obama carried the 3rd District, which is located in the middle of Long Island, 51-48, while Clinton took it 51.6-45.5 Democratic Rep. Steve Israel retired in 2016, and while both parties initially planned to compete heavily here, national Republicans canceled their ad reservations a month before Election Day; Democrat Tom Suozzi ended up winning 53-47.
Senate
● AL-Sen: In the horrifying but likely event that Sen. Jeff Sessions is confirmed as U.S. attorney general, Gov. Robert Bentley, a fellow Republican, gets to pick a new senator and choose the year for the special election. Bentley has announced that the special will occur in 2018 and line up with Alabama's regularly scheduled primary and general election; if Bentley had wanted, he could have instead scheduled the race for this year. Bentley has interviewed a number of Yellowhammer Republicans and says he might announce his pick as early as the week of Jan. 9. The seat will be up again in 2020 for a regular six-year term.
● TX-Sen: Just after the election, Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke said he was considering running for the Senate in the future, either against Ted Cruz in 2018 or John Cornyn in 2020. On Thursday, O'Rourke said it was "very likely that I will run for Senate in 2018" against Cruz.
If he gets in, O'Rourke has a very tough hill to climb. While Donald Trump's 52-43 win in Texas was the worst GOP performance there in decades, the state is still very red. Democratic turnout also tends to disproportionately drop in midterm elections, though things may be different with a Republican in the White House. O'Rourke represents an El Paso seat that backed Hillary Clinton 68-27, so he doesn't have much experience winning over the type of crossover voters any Democrat would need to win statewide in Texas.
Still, while O'Rourke would be a massive underdog, his campaign against Cruz may not be quixotic. Cruz's time in the Senate and his failed presidential bid have made him utterly despised by… well, almost everyone who pays attention to politics. A competent Democrat should be able to raise money from Cruz-hating liberals across the country, though O'Rourke would still need to bring in a ton of cash to win in a state this large and expensive. However, national Democrats need to defend incumbents in plenty of tough races, and outside groups are unlikely to commit much money to Texas unless they're convinced they have a solid shot.
Cruz's many Republican detractors wouldn't be in a hurry to pony up to O'Rourke or another Democrat, but one of them may decide to challenge the senator in a primary. Back in October, wealthy Rep. Michael McCaul refused to rule out a bid against Cruz, though he hasn't said much since then. Trump himself could also make trouble for the man he dubbed "Lying Ted." While Cruz eventually sucked it up and endorsed The Donald's campaign, Trump isn't exactly the forgiving type.
An O'Rourke upset would likely depend on a perfect storm of events that are largely out of his control. Trump would almost certainly need to be unpopular in 2018 even in states as red as Texas, and a number of conservatives would need to decide that a Democrat is preferable to Cruz. Some Texas GOP infighting will also probably be necessary to hurt Cruz enough to give Team Blue an opening.
Democrats also would love it if an independent ran who could appeal to conservatives who can't stomach Cruz. Matthew Dowd, an ABC News presence who served as an advisor to George W. Bush before publicly criticizing him over the Iraq War, says he's considering running as an independent, though he probably doesn't have much name recognition with many Texans. It's unlikely that Texas becomes one of the major Senate races of the cycle, but Cruz may have made enough enemies to at least put himself on the watch list.
● UT-Sen: GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch is keeping everyone waiting as he mulls running for an eighth term, and one prominent Utah Republican seems content to just wait with him. Ex-Gov. Jon Huntsman says he won't decide on a Senate bid until Hatch makes up his mind. However, Huntsman didn't say he wouldn't run against the incumbent if it came down to it, deflecting the question saying, "I don't think there's any use in speculating on that at this point."
Huntsman doesn't seem to have learned much from his doomed 2012 presidential primary campaign, saying that if he runs, he'll emphasize what brings Americans together, declaring, that "[t]he nation is hungry for healing." Has Huntsman ever met a Republican primary voter from the last 20 years? KUTV also quotes GOP Rep. Chris Stewart expressing interest in a Senate run. But unlike Huntsman, Stewart made it clear he wouldn't challenge Hatch.
Gubernatorial
● CA-Gov: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has been mentioned as a possible 2018 gubernatorial candidate or as a Senate candidate if fellow Democrat Dianne Feinstein retires this cycle, but he has said little about his interest in either post. However, thanks to a longshot mayoral opponent, we at least know that Garcetti isn't closing the door on a statewide bid this cycle.
Mitchell Schwartz, who ran Barack Obama's 2008 campaign in California, has insisted that Garcetti pledge to at least serve out a year of his new term if he wins re-election in March (which Garcetti should have no trouble doing) and stay out of any statewide races during that time. Garcetti hasn't taken the bait, and his political consultant says that the mayor "hasn't made any decision about running for any political office other than the mayor's office."
Meanwhile, another Southern California mayor isn't ruling out a gubernatorial bid. Kevin Faulconer, the GOP mayor of San Diego, actually did say during his successful 2016 re-election campaign that he would serve out his new full four-year term. But ex-Los Angeles Mayor Dick Riordan recently said that Faulconer told him in December that he intended to run for governor, and other people told Politico that Faulconer was considering getting in. Faulconer's office put out a statement saying that, "Many people are encouraging Mayor Falcouner to run, which he sees as a testament to the progress San Diego is making. Mayor Falcouner looks forward to continuing to serve as mayor." That's far from a no.
● IL-Gov: A number of Illinois Democrats are either publicly or privately considering challenging GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner, while Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar recently became the first declared candidate. Back in August, "a source close to" Chicago City Treasurer Kurt Summers told the Chicago Sun-Times that Summers was also thinking about a gubernatorial bid, but we'd heard little about his interest since then. However, Politico now reports that Summers recently spoke to potential donors and campaign staffers about running.
● NJ-Gov: Ray Lesniak is running for governor again—but who knows what he'll say in another week? The Democratic state senator said he filed paperwork for a gubernatorial bid with state elections officials on Thursday, and he also told Politico that this time, he's "made up his mind" (in Politico's words, not Lesniak's). But Lesniak's given a master class in pulling a Hamlet act, one that we've documented extensively, so don't trust him. In fact, on Wednesday, he said he'd announce his decision "next week," but then did so the very next day! So who knows what's going on his brain, which Lesniak himself has likened to a "roller coaster."
More importantly, even if he really does run, Lesniak's almost comical level of indecision has left him far behind the Democratic frontrunner, former Goldman Sachs executive Phil Murphy, in terms of organizing a campaign; while Lesniak's dithered, Murphy's been locking down support from establishment figures. There's also the matter of Assemblyman John Wisniewski, a prominent Bernie Sanders supporter who looks like a serious underdog compared to Murphy but at this point has to be an overdog compared to Lesniak and will compete for some of the same votes. Indeed, Lesniak admitted that he faces an "uphill battle." Too uphill to bother actually engaging? We can only wait and see.
● TN-Gov: There are a ton of Republicans considering running for this open seat next year, and state Sen. Mark Green has decided to make the first move. Green recently filed paperwork with the state and confirmed that he's decided to run. Green insists that he'll only make his formal announcement after the legislative session ends because he doesn't "want the session to be clouded by my run for governor." Modest guy, isn't he?
House
● CA-34: Another one! Former Los Angeles city planning commissioner Maria Cabildo just became the 11th Democrat to enter the special election for California's 34th Congressional District, which will be called when the state legislature confirms Rep. Xavier Becerra as the state's next attorney general. A little strangely, Cabildo said she believes the district "is really tired of career politicians and candidates that have really carefully crafted their careers around eventually running," which could be perceived as a jab at Becerra, who has served in Congress since 1993. Safe to say, Becerra is well-regarded and not exactly the kind of incumbent you want to campaign against.
● TX-03: We have our first retirement of the 2017-18 cycle: GOP Rep. Sam Johnson, who's 86 years old and has represented a seat in the Dallas suburbs since 1991, announced on Friday that he won't seek re-election. Texas' 3rd Congressional District is deeply conservative, but it was also very hostile to Trump. After going 64-34 for Mitt Romney in 2012, it gave Trump a considerably smaller 55-41 win in 2016. There are plenty of Republicans who could run here, and we'll take a look at the emerging field in our next Daily Digest.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.