Leading Off
● NV-Sen: Sen. Dean Heller is one of the few Senate Republicans whom Democrats can realistically target next year, but so far, no credible candidates have stepped forward to face him. In fact, until this week, no Democrats even publicly expressed interest in challenging Heller at all. However, Rep. Dina Titus tells The National Journal that she's considering. However, Titus would need to give up her safely blue Las Vegas House seat for a risky bid against Heller, a well-funded incumbent who won a very difficult race in 2012 even as Obama was decisively carrying Nevada.
Democratic insiders mention a number of other names to the National Journal. They name-drop ex-Secretary of State Ross Miller, who narrowly lost a race for attorney general during the 2014 GOP wave; ex-Las Vegas Mayor Jan Jones Blackhurst, who left office in 1999 and currently works for Caesars Entertainment; ex-state Treasurer Kate Marshall, who narrowly lost the 2014 secretary of state race; state Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford, who is reportedly considering running for governor; ex-Rep. Steven Horsford, who lost his seat in 2014 after one term; and freshmen Reps. Jacky Rosen and Ruben Kihuen.
A source close to Kihuen told National Journal that the congressman is "focused on his current job," but the source didn't rule out a bid. However, none of the other prospective candidates have done anything to indicate what they're thinking. Over at the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston takes a look at the potential field. Ralston writes that local insiders doubt Titus will give up her safe seat in the end, though Titus will take a look at the political climate is blowing. But he adds that Kihuen could leave behind his light blue House seat and run for the Senate "[i]f Trump's numbers are terrible, and Heller seems weak." There's no word if Rosen is at all interested, though Ralston notes that she'll be a GOP target anyway in 2018 in her swingy seat, and she may just decide she has a better shot against Heller.
Blackhurst and Marshall at least seem to want to return to office, though Ralston believes that Marshall "may not be the party's first choice here." He doesn't elaborate, though national Democrats may have unhappy memories of Marshall from her 2011 special election bid for the 2nd Congressional District. Marshall raised a ton of money but lost to Republican Mark Amodei by a brutal 58-36 margin. The 2nd is Nevada's most conservative seat and Obama had weak approval ratings at the time, but Marshall made a few avoidable mistakes. Rich guy Steven Cloobeck has reportedly already said he'll run for governor but Ralston mentions him just in case he decides to switch races. However, Ralston believes that Horsford and Miller are happy at their new jobs, while Ford seems far more interested in running for governor or attorney general.
The National Journal also notes one other big question for Nevada in 2018. Now-former Sen. Harry Reid built a formidable Democratic voter turnout machine over the years that helped Team Blue win across the board last year on an otherwise awful election night. However, no one's sure what role Reid will play in 2018, or how well the machine will work in a non-presidential cycle without Reid on the ballot.
Senate
● PA-Sen, PA-Gov: We thought GOP Rep. Pat Meehan sounded squiggly about whether he was inclined to seek a promotion—we just didn't know which race. The other day, a Meehan spokesman said that "at this time," his boss wouldn't run for Senate, which we filed in the "not a no" category. Now Meehan himself tells Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Jonathan Tamari that he meant that as a "firm no" (in Tamari's phrasing), but as for a possible gubernatorial bid, the congressman would only say, "I'm not inclined." That's some Bartleby-esque silliness, but it means we can't cross off Meehan's name as a potential challenger to Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf quite yet.
● VA-Sen: Carly Fiorina just loves to lose, doesn't she? On Monday, the disgraced former Hewlett-Packard CEO told a local radio host in Virginia that she's "certainly looking" at a bid against Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, who's up for re-election in 2018. Fiorina, of course, ran an utter failure of a presidential campaign last year, then followed it up with the shortest vice-presidential bid in American history (elapsed time: seven days).
And as anyone reading the Digest knows, Fiorina also sought a Senate seat once before—in California. Back in 2010, Fiorina spent $5.5 million of her own money to try to oust Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, only to lose by a 52-42 margin. Prior to that, Fiorina was best-known for nearly destroying HP, a legendary Silicon Valley company that dates back to the 1930s, by pursuing a disastrous merger with Compaq against all advice. Her tenure—which cost the firm 30,000 jobs and walloped its stock price—was so awful that Yale business school professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld dubbed her "one of the worst technology CEOs in history."
She's proven to be no better as a candidate, and a fourth time is unlikely to be the charm she's looking for. Not only would a race against Kaine be, as even Fiorina acknowledges, "very, very tough," she'd also have to face other Republican candidates in the primary who've lived in Virginia a wee bit longer than she has. Who knows, though? Maybe Fiorina's enough of a glutton for punishment to actually go through with it.
● WI-Sen: This is the GOP's top choice to run against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin:
GOP lawmaker talks about white terrorism, saying 'good things' came out of the Emanuel AME Church shooting
Just read the whole thing. Sean Duffy comes off even worse than the headline makes it sound, if you can believe it.
Gubernatorial
● AZ-Gov: Tucson state Sen. Steve Farley is the only Democrat who has publicly expressed interest in challenging GOP Gov. Doug Ducey next year, and he's at least given some indication for when he expects to make up his mind. Farley says he'll decide "probably fairly soon" after Arizona's legislative session ends in mid-April. Arizona doesn't get much polling love so we don't have a good read on how popular Ducey is, though other Grand Canyon State Democrats aren't exactly behaving like they think he's particularly vulnerable.
● IL-Gov: Businessman Chris Kennedy, a son of Robert F. Kennedy, announced on Wednesday that he would challenge GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner next year. Kennedy, a real estate developer who also used to run Chicago's Merchandise Mart, reportedly is willing to do some self-funding, though it's unclear how much; Rauner is extremely wealthy and can afford to deploy as much money as he feels like. Back in December, unnamed Democrats told Politico that they'd "welcome" Kennedy's candidacy, though they weren't sure at the time that he'd get in.
So far, the only other Democrat who has entered the race is Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar. Pawar pulled off a huge upset in 2011 when he defeated the "hand-picked replacement" of a 35-year incumbent alderman; however, Pawar begins this race with little money, name-recognition, or influential backers. However, a number of other Democrats are also considering getting in. Here's a look at the developing field:
State Sen. Daniel Biss: Considering
Rep. Cheri Bustos: Considering, says she'll decide by early Match
Rep. Robin Kelly: Considering
State Sen. Andy Manar: Considering
Venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker: Considering
Chicago City Treasurer Kurt Summers: Reportedly considering
Ex-Gov Pat Quinn: Hasn't ruled it out
State Sen. Kwame Raoul: Hasn't ruled it out
State Treasurer Mike Frerichs: Hasn't ruled it out, but sounds unlikely to get in
It's unclear what effect Kennedy's candidacy will have on everyone's calculations. While Rauner is running in a deep dark blue state, he has more than enough money to mount a nasty fight against the eventual Democratic nominee.
House
● House: The DCCC recently released their initial target list, and their counterparts at the NRCC have now done the same. The 36 seats on the GOP's list include all 12 Democratic-held districts that Trump won last year, several incumbents who faced close races in 2014 or 2016, some seats where Clinton's winning margin was considerably smaller than Obama's 2012 performance, and a few seats that Obama narrowly won but where Clinton did well. The GOP list also features a few longshot targets like Bill Keating in MA-09, Derek Kilmer in WA-06, and Denny Heck in WA-10. DCCC head Ben Ray Lujan is also on the list, but Team Red probably is just trolling him; Lujan was also on the GOP's 2015 target list, but they never devoted any attention to his northern New Mexico 3rd District otherwise.
It's of course very early in the cycle, and races will come on and off the target list based on who runs and the national climate. Still, there are a few interesting omissions. In 2014, California Reps. Jerry McNerney and Jim Costa and New York Rep. Louise Slaughter won shockingly close victories against weak GOP foes but so far, Team Red doesn't seem interested in giving them a serious fight. Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider in IL-10 is also missing. This suburban Chicago seat backed Clinton 62-33, but Schneider unseated Republican Bob Dold! by a considerably-tighter 53-47. Dold expressed interest in trying again next year and NRCC head Greg Walden sounded very excited about the prospect. It's possible the NRCC has decided Dold won't run, or they just don't plan to bother targeting Schneider if they can't get Dold.
Legislative
● Pres-by-LD, MN State Senate, MN State House: Our project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation hits Minnesota. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2016 and past cycles here.
While Trump narrowly lost the Land of 10,000 Lakes 47-45, the court-drawn state legislative maps were very good for Team Red. Trump carried 39 of the 67 state Senate seats and 72 of the 134 state House districts. The GOP won a narrow 34-33 Senate majority in November, and expanded their majority in the House to 77-57. The Senate will next be up in 2020, while the House will be up next year.
While the House map wasn't drawn as a GOP gerrymander, it very much helps the GOP stay in power. Four years ago, Obama defeated Romney by a wide 53-45 margin statewide, but he only carried 68 of the 134 House seats—a bare majority. This time, Clinton traded 13 Obama House seats for seven Romney seats.
Crossover voting also helped the House GOP last year quite a bit. While seven Democrats represent Trump constituencies, 12 Republicans hail from Clinton districts. Democratic state Rep. Paul Marquart in the rural northwestern HD-4B managed to win re-election 54-44 even as Trump carried his seat by a massive 57-35 margin, The Donald's best performance in a Democratic-held seat. Four years before, Romney took this seat by a modest 51-47. The other six Democrats in Trump seats represent districts that backed Obama in 2012. The traditionally Democratic Iron Range in the northwest corner of the state dramatically swung towards Trump last year, but the area hasn't abandoned Team Blue downballot yet.
Clinton's best GOP-held House seat is HD-49A around Edina, a suburban Twin Cities seat that swung from 52-47 Obama to 60-33 Clinton. Republican Dario Anselmo narrowly unseated Democratic Rep. Ron Erhardt, an incumbent whose problems were largely his own. Of the remaining 11 Republicans in Clinton seats, seven represent districts that backed Romney.
Democrats last won a House majority in 2012, so it's not at all impossible to imagine them retaking the majority next year. Still, they'll need to defend a lot of Trump-friendly turf and flip several seats that still vote GOP downballot. One other way to illustrate Team Blue's challenges is to sort each seat in each chamber by Trump's margin of victory over Clinton and see how the seat in the middle—known as the median seat—voted. Because Minnesota has an even number of House seats, we average the Clinton and Trump percentages for the middle two seats to come up with the median. The median point in the House backed Trump 47-44, a few points to the right of the state. Five Democrats hold seats more conservative than the median seat, while 15 Republicans represent seats to the left of it.
Back in 2012, the state Senate map was much better for Democrats, with Obama winning 38 of the 57 seats. But the bottom fell out for Team Blue last year: Trump took 11 Obama seats while losing only one Romney district. (To put it another way; Romney won the same number of Senate seats when he was losing badly statewide as Clinton did when she was narrowly winning.) Trump won the median seat 47-44.
Unlike in the House, crossover voting overall helped Team Blue far more than the GOP: Seven Senate Democrats hold Trump seats, while two Republicans hold Clinton Senate districts. Surprisingly, the most conservative Democratic-held Senate seat and Clinton's best GOP-held seat are not only each represented by freshmen, they were held by the opposite party until last year. Democrat Matt Little won SD-58, located south of the Twin Cities, by a narrow 50.5-49.5 even as it swung from 56-42 Romney to 54-38 Trump.
In the Twin Cities suburbs, Republican Paul Anderson won SD-44, which was vacated by unsuccessful Democratic congressional candidate Terri Bonoff, by a very close 50.2-49.8 even though the seat went from 51-47 Obama all the way to 55-37 Clinton. Barring a party switch or a seat flipping in a special election, Anderson's tiny win made all the difference in determining control of the Minnesota Senate for the next four years.
Mayoral
● Charlotte, NC Mayor: Charlotte Mayor Pro Tem Vi Lyles formed an exploratory committee at the end of December, and this week, she announced that she would run for mayor this year. Lyles is the first candidate to announce that she will oppose Mayor Jennifer Roberts in the September Democratic primary, though state Sen. Joel Ford has also formed an exploratory committee. Lyles didn't say why she's opposing Roberts in her announcement, but in the past, she's argued that the mayor didn't work well with the council during the unrest in the city after Keith Scott, a 43-year-old black man, was killed by police in September; Lyles also said at the time that Roberts went too far when she publicly criticized Police Chief Kerr Putney.
Grab Bag
● Pres-by-CD: We have a few small updates in three states:
- Pennsylvania: We had an error where some third-party ballots were left out of Allegheny County. Our new calculations change PA-14 from 66.8-30.9 Clinton to 66.0-30.5 Clinton. We also received official precinct reports from Carbon and Somerset Counties (we relied on unofficial reports before), but there were only very minor changes.
- New York: Ulster County, which is entirely contained within NY-19, updated its vote totals last month. NY-19 goes from 51.0-43.7 Trump to 50.8-44.0 Trump.
- Kansas: Until now, tiny Pawnee County did not provide us with any precinct-level results. Since 95 percent of Pawnee is in KS-01, we assigned 95 percent of its vote to that seat and the balance to KS-04. We now have official precinct results and… five Clinton votes moved from KS-04 to KS-01, while 25 Trump votes moved from KS-01 to KS-04. Aren't you glad we didn't delay the entire state for three weeks while waiting for Pawnee?
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
