If the gubernatorial election were held today, Democrat Phil Murphy would beat Republican Kim Guadagno by 15 points, at least among those who have made up their minds in the race to replace Governor Chris Christie. The most recent statewide survey of likely voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Murphy with the support of 47 percent of the voters. The two-term lieutenant governor has some distance to cover if she is to become New Jersey’s second female governor, as significantly fewer voters (32%) intend to vote for her. Five percent say they like someone else, and 13 percent remain undecided.
Democrats and Republicans break for their respective candidates as expected, but among independents who don’t align with either party, both candidates get about a quarter of their support (25% Guadagno; 26% Murphy; 26% undecided).
“It’s been an uphill climb for Guadagno in this race. She’s facing an electorate that is not very fond of the governor, and a majority align themselves with the opposing party. Despite the difficult odds, you can never say never in politics. With another debate looming, there’s still time to convince voters she’s the right choice,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of the poll.
Neither candidate hit a home run in the debate last week. Only a third (33%) of likely voters said they watched or listened to the debate. Among all likely voters, there was no consensus as to who outperformed the other, with Guadagno (29%) and Murphy (27%) polling about even, and a third saying neither can claim a win (31%). However, it’s notable that among those who describe themselves as independents, Guadagno (25%) performed significantly better than Murphy (5%).
“If the tide is to turn in her favor, she’s going to need to not only do well, but get more people to actually watch or listen to the debate this week,” said Jenkins.
The long shadow of Chris Christie is visible in this race, and appears to be complicating Guadagno’s chances. He is deeply unpopular among likely voters, with only 16 percent approving of his job performance. And 43 percent say he is a factor in the gubernatorial election, with a full third (34%) who indicate he is a major factor and another nine percent who rate his influence as minor. Fifty-six percent say Christie is not a factor in their choice to replace him.
A majority of those who consider Christie a major or minor factor say they’re supporting Phil Murphy. Seventy-nine percent who say Christie figures prominently in their minds like Murphy, as do 60 percent who consider Christie a minor factor. Of those who do not report influence by Christie, a plurality (48%) are supporting Guadagno.
“He’s a tough act to follow, and he leaves in his wake big concerns about the direction the state is headed and significant disappointment with his leadership,” said Jenkins. Around three-quarters (73%) say the state is headed down the wrong track, with only 17 percent happy with the way things are going. She continued, “For better or worse, and whether it’s fair or unfair, Guadagno seems paired with Christie in the minds of many voters. By an almost three to one margin, the wide swath of the electorate who disapprove of Governor Christie find Murphy more palatable than Guadagno.”
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