A youth emergence, suburban swing, diversified voter base, and energetic “resistance” fueled by diversity, independence, and a thirst for equality, has some Democrats itching for success in the South. 2018 could be the prime opportunity to travel those inroads toward a renewed relevance for southern democrats. With Georgia and North Carolina home to swingy suburbs, South Carolina and Mississippi eager to replenish a long-depleted bench, and Alabama hosting a very contentious senate race, southern democrats have a new spring in their step. For the purpose if this diary we will focus on the following states: North & South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Strong recruiting has southern democrats eager to remake the Gubernatorial Map in 2018, one that has long plagued democrats in southern races like Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida. However, all three states have a fresh face emerging as a strong contender for Governor. In Georgia, Democrats have the chance to elect the nation’s first-ever Black Woman to a Governor’s seat. Stacey Abrams, former House minority leader in Georgia, is campaigning on a strong progressive platform and has a vision to re-engage democrats, and voters, from every corner of the state. She has wowed national groups, received endorsements from big names, and raised a decent amount of money. In her neighboring state of Florida, another woman is looking to shatter the gubernatorial glass, and become Florida’s first woman governor, and first Democrat elected to that office in nearly two decades. Gwen Graham is last democrat to call the governor’s mansion home, as a child of course, when her father was Governor. She is mounting a strong statewide campaign to connect rural southern voters in the panhandle to her platform, whilst remaining competitive in more traditional democratic strongholds (ones that many would not consider “southern”) like Central and South Florida. Nonetheless, she’s from the South, represented a very rural southern seat in Congress, and would be a good Southern Democratic success story. As would South Carolina’s James Smith. A veteran, state representative, and fresh face for South Carolina. He has the potential to make the race competitive, re-engage South Carolina’s Democratic Party, and give the party another southern Governor.
Congressional elections will also entice southern democrats. If Florida can elect a Democrat as Governor, Gwen Graham’s former district might get re-drawn, in redistricting, to be more similar to what she represented- a Tallahassee-based seat that connects rural panhandle counties to elect a democrat with a strong performance in Leon and Jefferson. Stacey Abrams will be looking for her party to perform well in GA-6 and GA-7, and will need strong turnout in both districts to find herself as a victor in ’18. Suburban seats in North Carolina could also add a few Representatives to our bench if veterans, progressive women, and diverse Democratic challengers can flip a few seats, like NC-02, 09, and 13th. In South Carolina, the 5th district will be back in focus for state Democrats, after a closer-than-expected special election saw Archie Parnell get within striking distance of flipping the seat. He’s back for another try, and will put forth a valiant effort. Amy McGrath is running a very well-funded campaign in KY-6 and could give democrats another representative in the South. While there aren’t many “even-in-a-wave” seats left in the south, democrats are contesting where we haven’t in a long time, and fielding long-shot bids in some of the reddest seats in the south. Justin Kanew, of Amazing Race fame, is challenging for TN-07 and James Mackler and Karl Dean are hoping to put TN Senate and Governor in play (even if Bredesden doesn’t jump in against Mackler). We don’t appear to have mid or even top tier challengers prepared for AL-02 or AR-02 but someone could still announce (looking at you Bobby Bright).
In Alabama, Doug Jones has run a well-coordinated campaign, even without state party infrastructure to assist, that could see one of the reddest states elect a Democrat to the US Senate. That would be a huge assist to Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox and Justice Sue Bell Cobb who are both hoping to make next year’s Gubernatorial election in Alabama one to watch. In Georgia, Democrats flipped two house seats in special elections, two seats that we hadn’t even contested in a very long time, while emerging as the top-two in a senate special election, breaking the GOP supermajority in that chamber. If we’re learning anything from the Trump era, it’s that we should contest everywhere, because we’re seeing huge swings even in the reddest areas of Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Those results could have people like Mississippi’s Brandon Pressley primed to run for US Senate soon. The south won’t be immune to that Trump backlash. It just remains to be seen how big that backlash will be, and how far down the ballot it will run. If nothing else, Democrats all across the South will be engaged by candidates: 1) running in places where we haven’t run in a long time, 2) running strong campaigns for seats where we haven’t always fielded the best challengers 3) spreading a progressive message and working to rebuild a southern coalition. All of these are necessary as we challenge gerrymandered districts/maps in North Carolina, look to regain voting rights for thousands in Florida, and hope to strike down other maps, and restore democracy, in places like Alabama and Georgia.
Winning southern gubernatorial elections is our best chance to stop gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement in many states. It also gives us a seat at the table in making some of the state legislative maps a bit more competitive for southern democrats. As the blue wave builds next year (and hopefully in to 2020) senate seats in Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana will be on the table. In some states, like North Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky, it would be a bit easier to name a short list of challengers who could at least make those races competitive. We have a shot at picking off state, congressional, and federal elections in southern states. We won’t be flying to a majority in the south anytime soon. But with just the smallest uptick in energy we could find ourselves flipping seats, regaining voting rights, and rebuilding our bench, all across the south.