On Wednesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is the official party organization devoted to electing Democrats to the House, unveiled the first round of its “Red to Blue” program for the 2018 election cycle, highlighting key races where the committee thinks it has the strongest chance of picking up seats from Republicans next year. The full list of candidates making the DCCC’s initial roster are below:
|
|
|
Presidential Margin |
District |
Democrat |
Republican |
2016 |
2012 |
AZ-02 |
Ann Kirkpatrick |
Martha McSally |
5 |
-2 |
CO-06 |
Jason Crow |
Mike Coffman |
9 |
5 |
IA-01 |
Abby Finkenauer |
Rod Blum |
-4 |
13 |
IL-12 |
Brendan Kelly |
Mike Bost |
-15 |
2 |
KS-02 |
Paul Davis |
OPEN |
-19 |
-14 |
MI-08 |
Elissa Slotkin |
Mike Bishop |
-7 |
-3 |
MN-02 |
Angie Craig |
Jason Lewis |
-2 |
0 |
NC-09 |
Dan McCready |
Robert Pittenger |
-11 |
-12 |
NV-03 |
Susie Lee |
PRIMARY |
-1 |
1 |
NY-22 |
Anthony Brindisi |
Claudia Tenney |
-16 |
0 |
PA-06 |
Chrissy Houlahan |
Ryan Costello |
0 |
-3 |
Most of these choices are precisely what you’d expect, since they’re top-tier candidates running in competitive districts, along with one important defensive priority in Nevada’s 3rd District. Perhaps the most interesting selection is Dan McCready, an Iraq veteran and executive at a solar energy firm, given that North Carolina’s 9th District wasn’t close on the presidential level in either of the last two elections. But McCready raised much more money in the last fundraising quarter than his GOP opponent, Rep. Robert Pittenger, who is also dealing with a serious primary challenge for the second cycle in a row. As for Paul Davis, the other candidate in a deep red seat, he actually carried Kansas’ 2nd District when he (unsuccessfully) ran for governor in 2014, so Democrats are hoping for a repeat, especially since this seat is now open.
But while most of these hopefuls are the only serious contenders running in their respective races, a few are involved in contested primaries: Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona’s 2nd District, Jason Crow in Colorado’s 6th, and Abby Finkenauer in Iowa’s 1st. Kirkpatrick’s inclusion is unsurprising, since she’s a former member of Congress (though she represented a different House seat than the one she’s seeking now) and has swamped her rivals in fundraising since entering the race. Similarly, Crow, an attorney and former Army Ranger, was reported to be a favorite of the DCCC from the moment he kicked off his campaign. He’s also led the pack in fundraising (albeit not to the extent Kirkpatrick has), and more importantly, he’s drawn by far the most fire from Republicans, who appear to fear him the most.
Abby Finkenauer’s appearance is somewhat less expected, since she hasn’t raised money like gangbusters (and whether we like it or not, this is a key measure of electability that groups like the DCCC rely on). But she’s a state representative and thus may have deeper ties to her district than her chief primary opponent, former Labor Department official Thomas Heckroth, who only recently moved back to Iowa after living out-of-state for many years.
So why would the D-Trip (as it’s colloquially known) want to weigh in on these races? It’s probably not because they’re hoping to influence the outcome of any primaries: Kirkpatrick certainly doesn’t need the help, and Crow and Finkenauer are likely the frontrunners in their contests, too. However, the general elections in all of these districts are all going to be very expensive, and by giving these candidates the committee’s seal of approval now, that could help them get better prepared for the post-primary phase.
Of course, the DCCC could be wrong in some of these cases, and their picks might not all emerge with their party’s nomination—it’s certainly happened before. And while Republican primary voters have been far more likely to rebel against their national party’s selections than Democrats have, there’s still a risk that a Democratic rival could beat the DCCC choice by making the case that “D.C. insiders” are trying to “hand-pick” their preferred option. But obviously that’s a risk the D-Trip is still willing to take.
Meanwhile, in addition to their Red to Blue launch, the DCCC also released a list of what it calls “Majority Maker” districts—83 in all. This is basically a full catalog of almost every imaginable seat Democrats could potentially put in play next year, ranging from “sure to be competitive” to “serious reach.” Rather than reproduce the entire list here, we’ve summarized these races in the map at the top of this post, which displays every congressional district in the country as equally sized. In addition, the map also includes the DCCC’s new “True Blue” districts, which are Democratic-held open seats that shouldn’t be competitive, as well as the committee’s “Frontline” members, incumbents who face potentially difficult re-election bids.