The Daily Kos International Elections Digest is compiled by Stephen Wolf and David Beard, with additional contributions from James Lambert, Daniel Nichanian, Daniel Donner, and Julia van Hoogstraten, and is edited by David Nir.
Leading Off
● Spain: Catalonia – independence referendum (Oct. 1) & regional parliament (Dec. 21)
Catalonia is a wealthy region in northeastern Spain that is home to the city of Barcelona and 7.5 million people. Its residents have a distinct national identity and even their own language, called Catalan, as well as a longstanding desire for greater autonomy. That desire has fueled a growth in support for secession that is now embroiling Spain in its greatest constitutional crisis since the end of Francisco Franco's dictatorship and the country's return to democracy in the 1970s.
Campaign Action
On Oct. 1, Catalonia's regional government held a disputed independence referendum, even though the Spanish constitution denied it the authority to do so on its own. The national government in Madrid tried to violently halt the vote, with national police forces injuring several hundred protesters and would-be voters. Nevertheless, 2.3 million Catalans turned out to cast ballots, with 89 percent of them favoring independence. However, with only 43 percent turnout amid an opposition boycott, the referendum appeared to lack legitimacy. Indeed, polls have typically shown most Catalans oppose independence but supported holding a referendum.
Despite the taint of the referendum itself, Spain's heavy-handed response only engendered media sympathy for Catalonia and may have hardened the resolve of soft independence supporters. Just as he had promised, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and the majority that supported him in the regional parliament unilaterally declared independence from Spain.
In return, conservative Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy used an unprecedented constitutional maneuver to entirely suspend Catalonia's autonomy and have the national government exercise direct control over the region. Rajoy's government dissolved Catalonia's parliament and called for early elections to take place on Dec. 21. The national government also engaged in a fierce crackdown by arresting the officials who facilitated the referendum and participated in the declaration of independence on charges of sedition. Catalonia has thus far avoided more violence but has seen mass demonstrations by both independence supporters and those seeking to maintain unity with Spain.
Puigdemont himself left the country for the European Union's de facto capital of Brussels and says he won't return unless he and other separatists are guaranteed a fair trial. Puigdemont maintains that he is not seeking asylum in Belgium, but Catalan separatists have so far received a chilly reception among EU member states, many of which have their own ethnic regions where separatist radicals have long dreamed of independence.
As for the upcoming regional elections, polling shows that there's a good chance that pro-independence parties could lose their majority. Back in 2015 when separatists won control of the Catalan parliament, the two biggest separatist parties ran together on a joint ticket to take advantage of a proportional representation system that somewhat favors larger parties. However, that alliance has since fallen apart. Puigdemont hails from the center-right Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT), whose predecessor had long been dominant among Catalan nationalists. However, the recent push for independence has seen the left-wing Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) eclipse its former ally and become the region's most popular party.
Both PDeCAT and ERC were able to form a pro-separatist regional government after the last election thanks to the support of the small far-left Popular Unity Candidacy, a radical faction that pushed the larger parties toward an increasingly harder line in favor of independence. Should these parties remain entwined, the far left's ascendance could hurt PDeCAT's standing among nationalist-minded voters who abhor left-wing economic policies, pushing them toward the right-of-center parties that oppose independence.
But while the parties that favor unity with Spain could win a majority, they range widely from left to right, and they also differ on how to respond to the independence camp. Rajoy's national government consists of his conservative People's Party and relies on support from the more centrist Citizens, and both regional versions of those parties are vociferously opposed to independence. That's especially true for Citizens, which arose as a pro-business, socially liberal party that made opposition to Catalan nationalism a key part of its platform. Meanwhile, the center-left Socialists (who are in the opposition) also oppose independence but favor greater autonomy.
However, the left-wing Catalunya en Comú, a regional party affiliated with the national left-wing party Unidos Podemos and leftist Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau, takes a more complex stance. Podemos at the national level has supported the idea of a "pluri-national" Spain with far greater autonomy for ethnic-minority regions like Catalonia. Colau herself voted a blank ballot in the independence referendum, but she and Podemos support the right for Catalans to determine for themselves whether to secede from Spain in a constitutionally valid referendum, something that's unlikely to happen thanks to Rajoy's strident opposition.
It's hard to tell where this mess will leave Spain and Catalonia after the regional elections next month, particularly if the separatists retain their majority. But this whole ordeal has done a great deal of damage by polarizing Catalans against a national government that resorted to oppressive measures to stop an independence vote that likely would have failed had the opposition not boycotted it. Just as dangerously, it has also polarized a Spanish government and public that opposes the idea of one of its wealthiest regions defying the rule of law and breaking up the Spanish state.
Oceania
● Australia – same-sex marriage referendum (Sept. 12 - Nov. 7)
Australia has approved a referendum by a 62-38 landslide to legalize same-sex marriage, with turnout still reaching 80 percent even though, unlike in regular elections, the vote wasn't compulsory. As we previously explained, this vote is non-binding, but it will very likely provide Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull the political cover to allow a vote on legalization in parliament, which will likely pass even though most of Turnbull's center-right Liberal-National governing coalition opposes it.
● New Zealand – government formation
It took until almost a month after Election Day, but Jacindamania was victorious in the end. At just 37 years old, Labour Party leader Jacinda Ardern became the youngest New Zealand prime minister in 150 years by gaining the support of both the left-wing Greens and the populist anti-immigrant New Zealand First Party.
New Zealand First (usually referred to as "NZ First") took on the role of kingmaker after both the center-right National Party and the Labour/Green partnership failed to win a majority. While NZ First is most prominently known for its anti-immigration policies, it tends toward more progressive economic positions, and indeed, the government's first new bill will be to extend paid parental leave from 18 weeks to 26 weeks. Among other policies, the new coalition supports the idea of holding a referendum on legalizing recreational marijuana.
To add insult to injury for the defeated National Party, it was just hit with a judgment for over $400,000 for using a song almost identical to Eminem's "Lose Yourself" without permission in an advertisement during the 2014 elections. Amazingly, the ad was even called "Eminem Esque." Lose yourself, indeed.
Asia
● Japan – parliament (Oct. 22)
After a wild lead-up to October's snap election, which saw Japan's main opposition party all but dissolve, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe easily won re-election and retained his two-thirds coalition majority. That majority would allow Abe to propose revisions to Japan's pacifist constitution, a long-time goal of his.
Due to Japan's unusual electoral set-up, Abe's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its center-right ally Komeito won two-thirds of the seats despite only winning just under half the votes. Japan mixes single-member districts and proportional seats, but does not use the proportional seats to adjust the overall legislature to match vote percentages (as Germany and other countries do). As Abe's supermajority demonstrates, this system often yields disproportional results and rewards the largest party with an overabundance of seats.
And thanks in part to this system, Abe's opponents are reeling. The Democratic Party, which had been the main opposition party, shattered in the month before the election. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), made up of the center-left side of the Democratic Party, and its allies did better than expected and came in second place. Together with the Communist Party, they received 19 percent of the single-member district votes and 29 percent of the proportional vote, but that still left the left-of-center parties with just 15 percent of all seats.
Reformist conservative Kibō no Tō (Party of Hope), formed less than a month before the election by popular Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike, came in a disappointing third place despite absorbing much of the conservative-leaning parts of the opposition Democratic Party. They and a smaller ally won 23 percent of the proportional vote and 24 percent of constituency votes, but took just 13 percent of the seats.
Europe
● Austria – parliament (Oct. 15)
Austria is in for a big lurch to the right following October's elections. The Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) had long been the biggest center-right party in post-war Austria, but for 11 years it had served as the junior partner in a so-called "grand coalition" with its main rival, the center-left Social Democratic Party rather than ally with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). However, after years of dissatisfaction with the arrangement, the ÖVP picked Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz as its new leader earlier this year, marking a shift toward the nativist right, and following the election, the party will almost certainly form a coalition with the FPÖ.
Kurz is a telegenic 31-year-old who built up a cult of personality upon taking over the ÖVP; in fact, he even changed the party's formal name to "Sebastian Kurz List—The New People's Party," ditching its traditional black color for turquoise. ÖVP didn't just change its clothes, though: Kurz also moved the party markedly closer to the FPÖ's authoritarian xenophobia on immigration and national identity, a shift so profound that FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache even accused Kurz of "stealing" the FPÖ's ideas.
Nevertheless, the ÖVP's strategy paid electoral dividends when it surged from 24 percent of the vote in 2013 to 31 percent this year, taking 62 of 183 seats in parliament and surpassing the SPÖ as the largest party. SPÖ held steady at 27 percent and 52 seats, but the left suffered its worst performance since World War II thanks to the center-left Green Party fragmenting into two blocs. Former Green member Peter Pilz created his own list, which just barely passed the minimum 4 percent threshold and won 8 seats, but the rump Greens just barely fell below that same threshold and lost all 24 of theirs. Adding further to their troubles, Pilz himself resigned his seat shortly after the election over sexual assault allegations against him.
Although the ÖVP made a calculated move to win over nativist-minded FPÖ voters, the FPÖ nonetheless grew from 21 percent to 26 percent of the vote and won 51 seats, although that actually marked a sizable drop from their mid-30s polling lead before the ÖVP elevated Kurz and stole their thunder. Still, the FPÖ's 2017 result almost matched their all-time high of 27 percent in the 1999 elections, which incidentally also saw the FPÖ enter into an ÖVP-led coalition. Such a repeat alliance of the two parties would have a solid 114-seat majority, but such a partnership is unlikely to get treated as it was in 2000.
Back then, ÖVP's coalition with the far-right sent shockwaves across Europe, with many European Union nations imposing sanctions. However, after two decades of normalization of the radical-right across the continent, this renewed alliance, which is likely to come together, just won't draw the outrage that it should in the age of authoritarians like Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Austria will thus become the first Western European country in years with an actual far-right party in government.
Despite moving much closer to the FPÖ on immigration and issues regarding national identity, the ÖVP will still likely push for conservative economic policies now that it doesn't have to rely on the SPÖ to govern. While ÖVP's turn to nativism still didn't sink the FPÖ, the latter party betraying its working-class base by supporting the former's free-market economic proposals just might. Indeed, this very thing happened after the two parties first joined forces in 2000, but it remains to be seen whether the once-dominant SPÖ can win back over the working-class voters it lost to FPÖ with immigration still so salient amid Europe's ongoing refugee crisis.
● Czech Republic – parliament (Oct. 20)
Billionaire media mogul Andrej Babiš, who is the Czech Republic's second-richest man, won a dominant victory in parliamentary elections last month while the left suffered electoral oblivion. Babiš' populist centrist party ANO, whose acronym means "Yes" in Czech, sprang onto the scene in 2013 by railing against corruption, and it surged from 19 percent in the last election to take a 30 percent plurality of votes and 78 of 200 seats in parliament. The mainstream conservative Civic Democratic Party took second place with 11 percent and 25 seats, but they quickly ruled out joining a coalition even with the pro-business Babiš.
The center-left Social Democratic Party, which had led the outgoing government coalition with ANO as a junior partner, plummeted from 21 percent of the vote in 2013 to just 7 percent in 2017, earning only 15 seats. That drop put the Social Democrats in sixth place behind the Communists, who similarly hemorrhaged votes from 15 percent to just 8 percent and also took 15 seats. Filling the void to an extent was the left-leaning pro-direct democracy Pirate Party, which surged to a record 11 percent to enter parliament for the first time with 22 seats, marking the second-best result for a pirate party in any country after their sister organization took 14 percent in Iceland in 2016.
Meanwhile, the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy took fourth place with 11 percent and 22 seats, improving on a predecessor party's 7 percent in 2013, while a handful of more traditionally conservative or Christian-democratic parties won the remaining 23 seats in the proportionally elected lower chamber.
ANO and the Civic Democratic Party are the only two large enough to form a majority together, so the latter's refusal to work with the former means that any governing coalition will have to include at least three parties. Although Babiš has by far the largest party and other conservative parties could theoretically provide him with a majority, he may find governing difficult due to his own personal corruption allegations and his campaign stances against further integration with the European Union. Babiš says he will attempt to form a minority government when parliament convenes on Nov. 20. However, other parties may try to force ANO to nominate a different candidate for prime minister given the criminal investigation into Babiš over his business practices, but that may be easier said than done given the tight reins Babiš holds over his own party.
● Germany: Lower Saxony – state parliament (Oct. 15)
Despite a disappointing federal election result, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) won a come-from-behind victory in the state of Lower Saxony last month. The election had been called after the SPD/Green coalition lost its one-seat majority due to a Green MP defecting to the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). However, the SPD gained six seats to beat out CDU, which had been expected to come in first. But because the Greens lost eight seats, the SPD/Green alliance failed to win a majority of seats, even though left-of-center parties narrowly won a majority of votes.
With Die Linke (a far-left party whose name literally translates as "The Left") missing out on the 5 percent threshold needed to win any seats at all, the only option left was a grand coalition between SPD and CDU, which is what transpired. This is actually the second straight election where the winning party didn't end up with the coalition they wanted: CDU came in first in 2013, but the SPD/Green coalition amounted to one seat more than a CDU/Free Democratic Party (FDP) partnership and took power. The addition of the far-right anti-immigrant Islamophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD) to parliament this time around meant that neither side had a sufficient majority.
● Iceland – parliament (Oct. 28)
Iceland's previous center-right governing coalition collapsed after less than a year in office when it came to light that Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson's father had written a letter to help a convicted pedophile officially "restore his honor" so that he could legally seek certain employment again. Although the prime minister didn't write the letter himself, he and his party were accused of trying to cover up its existence for months. In the wake of the scandal, polls showed the left-leaning opposition potentially poised for victory, but center-right parties once again out-performed pre-election projections . However, Iceland's party system itself still saw some major shakeups, leaving the county's new governing coalition in doubt.
The outgoing prime minister's right-wing Independence Party still maintained a plurality with 25 percent of the vote, but fell to 16 of 63 seats in parliament. Although the left-wing Left-Green Movement had hoped to become the largest party for the first time, they made limited gains to take 17 percent and 11 seats. The center-left Social Democrats surged from their historic low of 6 percent in 2016 to take 12 percent and 7 seats. However, the left-leaning pro-direct democracy Pirate Party fell from its historic 14 percent last year to take just 9 percent and 6 seats, making a left-of-center coalition with the Left-Greens and Social Democrats numerically impossible.
But while the Independence Party managed to hang on to first place, somewhat ironically its small coalition partners were the ones to suffer the biggest losses. The center-right Reform Party faded to just 7 percent and 4 seats, while the centrist Bright Future lost all of its seats. However, right-leaning parties still maintained a majority. Shortly before the election, former Prime Minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, who was brought down by the Panama Papers scandal in 2016, split off from the center-right Progressive Party to form his own Centre Party. This new party debuted at 11 percent and 7 seats while the Progressives held steady at 11 percent and 7 seats. Lastly, the populist People's Party entered parliament with 7 percent and 4 seats.
Although Independence, the Progressives, Centre, and Reform could theoretically form a right-leaning majority, that doesn't appear to be in the cards. Instead, the Progressives in particular have pushed for a coalition that includes the left-leaning opposition, though that has yet to take shape. Left-Green leader Katrín Jakobsdóttir began talks about a four-party coalition with the Social Democrats, Pirates, and Progressives, but they concluded that such a one-seat majority would be unstable.
Most recently, the Left-Greens, Independence Party, and Progressives have discussed forming a coalition with Katrín as prime minister, but such an ideologically broad coalition could be unwieldy and spark backlash on both its left and right flanks. It could furthermore prove detrimental to the Left-Greens in their push to become the biggest party in future elections if they partner with Independence instead of acting as its chief opponents.
● Italy – electoral reform
Italy has passed yet another new electoral reform law and is now ready for its parliamentary elections coming up in the spring of 2018. After the country's Supreme Court found parts of the previous election laws passed in 2005 and 2015 to be unconstitutional, Italy's upper and lower houses of parliament, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, each found itself governed by a different electoral system. As Italian prime ministers need the support of both chambers, this unwieldy arrangement significantly increased the chance that an election would either not produce a government or produce a highly unstable one.
The new system uses a mixed-member proportional representation system similar to Germany's, where 36 percent of the seats in both chambers are elected in single-member districts. The remaining 64 percent are awarded proportionally in a way that ensures that the overall makeup of each chamber is proportional to the overall vote percentages.
As this system often results in broad coalition governments (as we've seen in Germany), the anti-establishment Five Star Movement strongly protested its adoption, as it has ruled out working in concert with other parties. Some small leftist parties also opposed the new law, but with support from the governing center-left Democratic Party as well as the center-right, it passed easily.
● Netherlands – government formation
Seven months after elections last March produced historic fragmentation in the Dutch parliament, four right-of-center parties finally reached an agreement to form a coalition that will have a tenuous one-seat majority in the 150-member lower house. Prime Minister Mark Rutte's conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy had won a plurality of seats, and they agreed to form a coalition with the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal, a natural ally.
However, the other two parties in the coalition will have to bridge some major policy differences. The classical-liberal D66 is socially progressive but strongly in favor of free-market economic policies, while the Christian Union is very socially conservative but backs a more progressive economic approach. This new coalition will consequently represent a rightward shift in policy, but it could prove too unwieldy to last a full four-year term. Nevertheless, by locking out left-leaning parties entirely, as well as the far-right Party for Freedom, the fragmented left could rebound from its historic defeat last spring and coalesce as the main opposition.
Sub-Saharan Africa
● Kenya – president (Oct. 26)
Kenya had to re-run its presidential election after the country's Supreme Court invalidated the results of August's balloting, but opposition leader Raila Odinga of the center-left Orange Democratic Movement decided to boycott the new election amid protests by his supporters. President Uhuru Kenyatta of the conservative Jubilee Party thus won re-election in a 98-1 landslide with abysmal turnout. His party had also retained its dominant position in the legislature during the August election as only the presidential contest was later annulled.
Odinga and the opposition claimed that election officials still had not fixed the mistakes they allegedly made in August ahead of the latest round of voting. However, it's unclear if Odinga could have even won a new election after international observers generally deemed the initial election to be free and fair.
Ethnic differences still deeply divide Kenyan politics, with Kenyatta hailing from the plurality Kikuyu group while Odinga is a member of the smaller Luo group. Unfortunately, this election saw politically motivated violence just as previous elections had, with at least 30 people killed. However, Kenya has so far avoided the sort of mass violence that claimed over 1,000 lives after Odinga lost the 2007 elections. Nevertheless, this election has done little to stabilize Kenya's fragile democracy.
● Liberia – president & legislature (Oct. 10)
The candidates from the two leading parties in Liberia, Vice President Joseph Boakai of the centrist Unity Party and former star soccer player and senator George Weah of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC), advanced to a presidential runoff in elections last month. The runoff was scheduled to take place on Nov. 7 but was indefinitely delayed by the Supreme Court when third-place finisher Charles Brumskine challenged the results. The runoff will be rescheduled once the court's inquiry is complete.
International observers noted some irregularities but had not raised major concerns. It's unlikely that high court will change the result, particularly given the wide margin. Weah finished first with 38 percent of the vote and Boakai second with 28 percent, while Brumskine was a distant third with just 10 percent. The two major parties similarly dominated the legislative elections, with the CDC winning 21 of 73 seats and the Unity Party winning 19. No other party won more than five seats.
North America
● Canada – New Democratic Party leadership election (Oct. 1)
Canada's left-leaning New Democratic Party, left rudderless after jettisoning its previous leader, Thomas Mulcair, in a 2016 leadership review vote, finally settled on a replacement: Jagmeet Singh, the deputy leader of the Ontario NDP and a member of Ontario's provincial legislature (a post he resigned on assuming his new role). Singh, the only candidate in a four-way contest without experience in Canada's federal parliament, overperformed expectations by securing a win at his party's convention with 54 percent of the vote.
The 38-year-old Singh, the first politician to lead a major federal party who is a member of what Canadian demographers call a "visible minority group," garnered attention during his campaign for possessing a stylish and personable approach that the staid Mulcair lacked. Singh, however, faces a daunting task ahead of him in convincing left-leaning voters to abandon Justin Trudeau's governing Liberals ahead of Canada's next election, expected to be held in 2019. Current polling suggests that the NDP has not gained much, if any, ground since their disappointing third-place showing in 2015.
● Canada: Alberta—United Conservative Party leadership election (Oct. 28)
Back in July, the membership of Alberta's two right-of-center parties, the Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives, voted to merge into a single entity in order to increase their chances of confining Alberta's center-left NDP government to a single term in power. The new organization, which christened itself the United Conservative Party, held a leadership vote on Oct. 28, and the landslide winner was Jason Kenney, a one-time cabinet minister in former Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative federal government.
Kenney, who has a reputation as a sharp strategist, is both an economic and social conservative, and the UCP under his leadership has already tussled with the NDP over the issue of gay rights in the province's school system. However, at this point, the UCP enjoys a commanding lead on the NDP in public opinion polling, and they must be considered the early favorites in the province's next election, expected in 2019.
Elsewhere, another potentially interesting subplot in Alberta politics has emerged: Greg Clark, the leader of the centrist Alberta Party, resigned just days after his party scored a major success by successfully luring an NDP lawmaker to switch allegiances to his caucus, thereby enabling the tiny party to obtain official status in the legislature. Clark is ostensibly resigning his post in order to allow a leadership race, and many former Progressive Conservatives, disaffected with Kenney's hardline edge on social issues, are rumored to be interested in the job. It remains to be seen whether the next leader of the Alberta Party will morph the fledgling brand into a new home for disaffected PC voters and become a potential contender for government, or if they will simply assist the UCP by siphoning left-leaning moderates away from the NDP.
● Canada – mayoral elections
Four of Canada's major cities held mayoral elections in recent weeks. On Oct. 16, voters in Calgary and Edmonton (the fourth- and fifth-largest municipalities in Canada, respectively), voted to re-elect their progressive incumbents. In Edmonton, Mayor Don Iveson faced no serious opposition and romped to a second term with nearly 74 percent of the vote.
More interestingly, in Calgary, a city still feeling the effects of a severe recession as a result of slumping oil prices, Mayor Naheed Nenshi secured a third term by beating Bill Smith, a former president of the province's Progressive Conservatives, by a 51-44 margin. Nenshi's win was a stunning repudiation of public polling conducted by Canadian firm Mainstreet Research, which repeatedly showed Smith leading Nenshi by double-digit margins in the final stages of the campaign, and a rebuke of the city's conservative and business elites, who heavily backed Smith's insurgent bid. (A spokesman for the NHL's Calgary Flames, a franchise upset with Nenshi's approach to negotiations for a new publicly-funded hockey arena, even tweeted that the outcome of the vote was "worse than Trump being President"!)
A few weeks later, voters in Montreal sent first-term Mayor Denis Coderre, a former federal Liberal cabinet minister, to a stunning defeat at the hands of Valérie Plante, by a 51-46 margin. Plante, who campaigned heavily in favor of improved public transit, becomes the first woman to serve as Montreal's mayor, while Coderre becomes the city's first mayor to lose an election after a single term in over a half-century. Meanwhile, in Quebec City, voters re-elected Mayor Régis Labeaume, a businessman and former staffer for the separatist Parti Québécois, to a fourth term.
● Nunavut – territorial parliament (Oct. 30)
Voters in Nunavut, a northern Canadian territory encompassing the country's most remote and sparsely-populated land masses, elected a new territorial parliament late last month. Nunavut's legislative assembly is one of only two territorial political systems in Canada to feature non-partisan elections and a consensus-style government in keeping with the traditional Inuit approach to decision-making. (The vast majority of Nunavut's 38,000 residents identify as Inuit.) In this system, the premier is not directly elected but rather chosen in a secret ballot cast by fellow legislators.
Following the vote, the new legislative assembly convened on Nov. 17 to select Paul Quassa as the territory's fourth premier. Quassa previously served as Nunavut's Minister of Education, and was a negotiator in the 1993 land claims agreement that allowed the creation of the territory itself in 1999.
Central America/Caribbean
● Honduras – president & legislature (Nov. 26)
In a troubling development, Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández is running for a second term despite an explicit ban in his country's constitution that precludes presidents from seeking re-election. Hernández's conservative National Party, which controls the legislature, removed and replaced four the five justices on the Honduran Supreme Court in 2012 in a move that constitutional scholars called out as blatantly "illegal." Those same justices later decreed that the one-term limit was void, even though it had been expressly written into Honduras' original 1982 constitution. The same experts attacked the court's decision as "strikingly weak" and branded it a political move, not a legal one. But while rival parties have strongly disputed both the seating of the replacement justices and their ruling, their complaints have been to no avail, and Hernández has forged ahead.
The last time a Honduran president attempted such a maneuver, though, things turned out very poorly. In 2009, left-wing President Manuel Zelaya was ousted from power in a coup for proposing a non-binding poll on changing the one-term limit—a coup that, remarkably, Hernández supported! (And one that the United States sanctioned, to widespread condemnation.) This prior incident, however, raises obvious questions about why the military and others removed the left-wing Zelaya but have allowed the right-wing Hernández to seek another term.
The opposition is still hoping to stop Hernández, though. The left-wing Libre Party and center-left PINU have jointly nominated Salvador Nasralla, a journalist and popular TV host who took fourth place in 2013 by running under the banner of the Anti-Corruption Party, while the center-right Liberal Party has nominated Luis Orlando Zelaya, the former president of the Central American Technological University. There is no runoff, so the candidate who receives the most votes will become president.
South America
● Argentina – legislature (Oct. 29)
Conservative President Mauricio Macri's center-right alliance performed better than expected in the president's first midterm election, when seats in one-third of the Senate and half of the Chamber of Deputies were up. Macri's "Let's Change" coalition picked up new seats in both chambers and now holds sizable pluralities, but it still fell shy of an outright majority in either the upper or lower house.
Nevertheless, the results were a big blow to the Peronist opposition led by leftist former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who left her Justicialist Party to form Citizens Unity, which remained in a distant third place in seats despite making considerable gains by taking away from the Justicialists. However, the two factions lost their joint majority in the Senate even as Fernández herself won a seat in the chamber.
These elections mean Argentina will continue shifting more toward the conservative economic policies that Macri has pushed after years of leftist rule under Fernández and her late husband, President Néstor Kirchner.
● Chile – president & legislature (Nov. 19 & Dec. 17)
Chile bans its presidents from serving consecutive terms in office but does allow them to seek election to another term after an intervening four years have passed. Consequently, center-left President Michelle Bachelet, who had served from 2006-2010, was able to run again in 2014 and is currently serving her second non-consecutive term. Now, former center-right President Sebastián Piñera, who served between Bachelet's two terms, is seeking a second non-consecutive term of his own.
Piñera, who heads a broad center-right electoral coalition, is comfortably leading in the polls with around 40 percent and will likely face a left-of-center candidate in a runoff. Sen. Alejandro Guillier hails from the same center-left coalition that supported Bachelet and is currently polling in second in the low 20s, while a coalition of left-wing parties is supporting journalist Beatriz Sánchez, who is polling in the mid-teens. Piñera has been leading both candidates in runoff polling, but it's possible that the race could become more competitive once a single left-of-center standard bearer is chosen. Piñera is the only successful right-of-center candidate to win the presidency in Chile since the country's transition from a military dictatorship to democracy in the 1990s.
Half of the Chilean Senate and all members of the Chamber of Deputies are also up for election. The center-left coalition currently has majorities in both chambers.
