As "Congress speeds toward [a] shutdown over Dreamers,” according to Politico, it's Republicans who hold the keys. Though they can't control the votes of all their members, they do control which bills make it to the floor. That gives them a choice between finding a fix for a program Donald Trump is killing that protects some 800,000 Dreamers from deportation or failing to do so and setting up a GOP-led government shutdown.
The rub is that the House GOP's own caucus is too erratic to pass funding bills that keep the government's lights on, so Republican leadership must rely on Democratic votes to push the funding bill over the finish line. That has given Democrats a leverage point for providing a legislative fix for Dreamers if they are going to help Paul Ryan do what his caucus won't.
“We want a clean DREAM Act,” said Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.), referring to legislation that provides a pathway to citizenship for the young adults. “That is what it’s going to take for me and others to sign on.”
For now, both Ryan and [Leader Nancy] Pelosi are falling in line with the more combative wings of their parties.
Ryan told reporters in early November that there was no need to address DACA by year’s end because the program expires in March under President Donald Trump’s orders.
Pelosi vowed at a news conference earlier this month, “We will not leave here without the DREAM Act passing, with a DACA fix,” adding: “We're not kicking the can down to March.”
But Ryan has the bigger problem by far. Failure to keep the government funded can easily be blamed on the Republican majority given their triumvirate of government control. A shutdown will simply reinforce America’s perceptions about the GOP’s disastrous run at governing.
Meanwhile, the very same House Republicans who consistently work to doom funding bills mistakenly think they have a leg to stand on in this debate.
The right is trying to ensure Ryan and McConnell don’t make any immigration deals. They've taken their case to the White House and convinced Trump, at least momentarily, that government funding and DACA should be negotiated separately.
“We do not want DACA on the [spending] bill," said House Freedom Caucus leader Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).
That's rich. Jordan and his crew have made themselves irrelevant in funding debates by virtue of their history of voting against the U.S. government. Jordan, for instance, voted against the 2017 omnibus bill in May and the short-term extension in September. So trying to win over his vote is a fool's errand anyway. Meanwhile...
Moderate Republicans, who rarely go against GOP leaders, recently held a news conference calling for Ryan to act on DACA by the end of 2017. Centrists in the Tuesday Group huddled last week with the New Democrat Coalition and agreed to find a bipartisan solution.
At the same time, the Problem Solvers Caucus, another bipartisan group of moderates, is getting ready to drop its own bill to extend DACA in exchange for heightened border security. And one moderate Republican source even suggested centrists could take a harder line against their own leaders if Ryan doesn’t embrace a compromise soon.
Ryan is reportedly being pulled between his saner members who want to avoid a shutdown and those who are threatening his speakership if he gives a bill providing relief for Dreamers a vote.
But Republicans have a choice—fix what Trump broke and keep the government funded or don't, full stop. If they reaffirm their inability to lead on a no-brainer like keeping the government funded, voters themselves will remove Ryan from the Speakership come 2018.