Through a few gimmicks, House Republicans managed to give Donald Trump his permanent reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35 to 20 percent in their tax bill. But Senate Republicans, who haven't released anything yet, aren't likely to be able to deliver the same cut given the budget constraints they face in the upper chamber. One study from the University of Pennsylvania Penn-Wharton model shows the House plan would cut federal revenues by more than the $1.5 trillion allowed over the next 10 years—making the 20 percent corporate tax rate potentially impossible to achieve in the Senate. Politico writes:
“That’s one of the challenges we’re wrestling with,” [Sen. Pat Toomey] told reporters on a conference call Friday. “We would very much like to do that, I hope we can do that, but that is still a work in progress.”
If they can’t, Senate Republicans are certain to face the wrath of Trump, according to several GOP Ways and Means members. Trump has called the 20 percent corporate rate one of his two top priorities in tax reform, along with middle-income benefits.
In fact, it's hard to see how any of the Senate tax plan resembles the House's, given how many conservative feathers were ruffled by it. Here are just a few things they hope to fix:
They’re also aware of real estate interests’ unease with House GOP plans to cut the maximum deduction for mortgage interest in half and cap property tax deductions at $10,000, while doing away with deductions for state and local income and sales taxes. There’s also been unease with restricting tax-exempt financing for infrastructure and low-income rental housing.
Oh, and certain GOP senators are also staking out positions at odds with the House bill.
Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) have raised budget concerns, and there’s less GOP angst about the estate tax in the Senate than in the House. Both Collins and Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) have said it should remain.
In addition, Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) want to boost the child tax credit much more than the House bill does. And Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) simply appear difficult to predict.
Sen. Paul, in particular, may prove a very difficult head to count since he's "out of commission indefinitely" due to his scuffle with a neighbor.
Whatever Senate Republicans deliver, expect it to vary quite a bit from the House’s monstrosity. That doesn’t mean it won’t be a tax giveaway to the rich—it just means that reconciling the bill with the House version will be a huge headache, assuming both chambers are even able to pass their own bills.