Latest news today out of Arizona:
A statewide Arizona survey of 500 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows that just under a year out from Election Day, Democrat Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9) has extended her lead over GOP candidate Dr. Kelli Ward to a 7-point margin, 34-27. The survey, which was conducted immediately after U.S. Senator Jeff Flake announced he would not seek re-election, indicates both candidates have lots of work to do in both defining themselves and their opponent over the coming months.
Q. If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Kelli Ward or Kyrsten Sinema?
34.4% Kyrsten Sinema
26.8% Kelli Ward
38.8% Don't know, Refused
In an August poll of 400 likely voters, HighGround tested a hypothetical match-up between the same two candidates with a much closer margin of 30.5% for Ward vs. 31.8% for Sinema. Despite Ward receiving an endorsement from former White House advisor Steve Bannon in the time since the August poll was conducted and Senator Flake withdrawing, Ward has not seen a bump and in fact, has lost ground. In both surveys, the plurality of voters had not made their mind up in favor of either candidate.
“Even with Senator Flake announcing his retirement and the whirlwind of media attention around Steve Bannon’s endorsement and visit, Kelli Ward has not seen any improvement in her support,” said Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, which conducted the poll. “The numbers continue to show that Ward is a flawed General Election candidate, and her nomination would likely result in a loss of the seat for Republicans. With the apparent ceiling of support for Ward, there is clearly room for a different Republican candidate to emerge as a credible challenger with a path to victory, such as Congresswoman Martha McSally or Great Hearts founder Jay Heiler.”
The latest survey data also showed that Congresswoman Sinema is still not known by 37% of the electorate in Arizona, whereas Ward is not known by more than 40% of the electorate despite challenging Senator John McCain in 2016.
Coughlin continued, “While many have proclaimed Congresswoman Sinema to be a strong candidate, Arizonans are still unsure of her after a haphazard announcement of her Senate candidacy, with no subsequent statewide tour or messaging to support her campaign. We have yet to see the popularity she enjoys within the left leaning Congressional District 9 translate to rural areas such as Yuma and Yavapai counties – home to some of the larger cities outside Maricopa County, where she needs to be competitive.”
General Election turnout in off-Presidential Cycle races in Arizona shows that Republicans historically have a twelve-point turnout advantage, which steepens the climb for any Democratic contender. Today, not a single Democrat holds statewide office in Arizona.
“Quite frankly, Senator Flake stepping out completely opens up the race for a primary challenger to Ward and a more credible Republican to face off against Sinema in November. Ward no longer has a candidate to beat up on, and Sinema can no longer count on a facing a damaged and resource-depleted Republican in November. There is a great deal of uncertainty in the electorate and I think this data shows that we are in for a wild ride,” concluded Coughlin.
The audience tested in the statewide live caller survey was set to reflect the 2018 General Election in Arizona. The General Election sample of 500 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.36%.
Now this is very encouraging however, Ward won’t have the GOP primary to herself:
Congresswoman Martha McSally is planning to enter Arizona's 2018 Senate race, giving Republican Kelli Ward new competition in the GOP primary.
The lawmaker has told her Republican colleagues in Arizona's delegation that she intends to enter the Senate race, but didn't indicate when she would formally announce her bid, according to two people with knowledge of the conversations.
Her decision will further shake up the state's political landscape. Sen. Jeff Flake announced two weeks ago he was abandoning his re-election bid amid sinking polling and high-profile clashes with President Donald Trump.
McSally would be the first high-profile name to join the Senate race since Flake's retirement announcement. Jay Heiler, a longtime lobbyist and member of the state's Board of Regents, has formed an exploratory committee. Others, including former members of Congress Matt Salmon and John Shadegg, have weighed a Senate bid, but have taken a pass, at least for now.
Either way, let’s get ready to flip this seat. Click here to donate and get involved with Sinema’s campaign.