NV-04: Now that Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen isn't running for a second term next year due to a sexual harassment scandal, the Democratic field to replace him is slowly beginning to take shape. This seat, which includes Las Vegas’ northern suburbs, went from 54-44 Obama to a smaller 50-45 Clinton, and while Democrats should be favored to hold it, it’s by no means a slam dunk.
There’s been plenty of chatter that ex-Rep. Steven Horsford, who narrowly lost this seat in the 2014 GOP wave to Republican Cresent Hardy, could run again. Veteran Nevada politics reporter Jon Ralston wrote at the beginning of the month right after news of Kihuen’s scandal first broke that Horsford was considering a comeback bid, but Ralston now writes that the former congressman "has had a health issue, and he does not want to lose twice in a row." That doesn’t mean he won’t run, and there's still been no word from Horsford himself. However, Ralston also suggests that, while some top Democrats might step aside for Horsford, there are other prominent ones who may not. Some Democrats may also prefer to have a woman running here given the circumstances of Kihuen’s fall.
One of the Democrats who may end up running is state Sen. Pat Spearman, who says she is "strongly leaning toward running." Spearman first won her state Senate in 2012 by ousting conservative incumbent John Lee as a progressive primary challenger. Like Horsford, she is black, while Spearman is also a lesbian, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a Christian minister. That profile could help Spearman earn the support of major progressive organizations that promote more diverse candidates in Congress. Spearman’s North Las Vegas seat is also entirely located within the 4th District. While it’s quite common for Las Vegas-area politicians to hop between the area’s congressional districts depending on the circumstances (then-state Sen. Kihuen didn’t represent a shred of the 4th District in the legislature when he was elected last year), it at least can’t hurt to have a candidate with a local base of support.
State Sen. Yvanna Cancela is another Democrat who had previously been mentioned as a potential candidate, though she has yet to say anything about her interest publicly. Cancela was appointed to succeed Kihuen in the state Senate, and she’s never run for office before. But Cancela used to be the political director of the powerful Culinary Workers Union, so she very connected in the world of Nevada Democratic politics. Cancela also made history last year when she became the chamber’s first Latina member.
However, Ralston wrote earlier this month that Cancela has a full time job and is in law school, which could deter her from running. Her state Senate seat, which doesn’t overlap at all with the 4th, is also up next year, so she’d need to give it up to run here. Ralston also writes that a primary between the Cancela and Spearman could end up being a fraught affair that alienates key Democratic-aligned groups. However, that is by no means destined to happen.
Roll Call has also mentioned several other candidates as possibilities, though no one has said anything publicly. They name-drop John Lee, who was elected mayor of North Las Vegas after he lost his seat to Spearman, though his conservative positions on key issues like reproductive rights should rightly make him anathema to Democratic primary voters and progressive groups.
Finally, another Roll Call report from earlier in December mentioned Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani and former Las Vegas City Councilman Steve Ross as two other Democrats whom unnamed insiders had deemed potential candidates, although neither has said anything publicly. Giunchigliani is currently running for governor in the Democratic primary against fellow Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak, who chairs the commission. However, Sisolak likely starts with an advantage thanks to his huge campaign war chest and the support of Rep. Dina Titus and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who remains a powerful force in state Democratic politics. Giunchigliani may be tempted to run for the House instead, but Roll Call says unnamed operatives doubt she will.
On the GOP side, Las Vegas City Councilor Stavros Anthony has been running for Team Red for a few months. But while Hardy said over the summer that he wouldn’t run for the seat he lost to Kihuen 49-45 last year, he began reconsidering this month. Hardy said that, while he’s still supporting Anthony, he was thinking about jumping in anyway. Nevertheless, Hardy has not said anything publicly since Kihuen announced he was leaving.