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The Congressional Budget Office worked fast in responding to Sen. Ron Wyden's request for an analysis of the long-term cuts to Medicaid in Trumpcare. They must have had the data right at hand, because here it is.
In CBO's assessment, Medicaid spending under the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017 would be 26 percent lower in 2026 than it would be under the agency’s extended baseline, and the gap would widen to about 35 percent in 2036 (see figure below). Under CBO's extended baseline, overall Medicaid spending would grow 5.1 percent per year during the next two decades, in part because prices for medical services would increase. Under this legislation, such spending would increase at a rate of 1.9 percent per year through 2026 and about 3.5 percent per year in the decade after that. […]
The first 10 years of projections in CBO’s extended baseline match the agency’s 10-year baseline projections, which are based on a detailed analysis of the Medicaid program. Beyond the coming decade, however, projecting federal spending on Medicaid becomes increasingly difficult because of the considerable uncertainties involved. A wide range of changes could occur—in people’s health, in states’ decisions about Medicaid eligibility and covered benefits, and in the delivery of medical care—that are almost impossible to predict but that could nevertheless have a significant effect on federal spending on Medicaid. Therefore, for the projections beyond 2026, CBO has adopted a formulaic approach—one that combines estimates of the number of enrollees with fairly mechanical projections of growth in federal spending on Medicaid per enrollee (adjusted to account for demographic changes in Medicaid enrollees). That straightforward approach, which was designed to help make long-term projections of federal deficits and debt, can be usefully applied only when analyzing proposed changes in law that, like this bill, would affect spending in a similarly straightforward manner.
Here’s that figure referenced.
Gee, why didn't Republicans think about taking into account all those thing like increasing prices for medical services and use actual existing data for figuring stuff like this out?
Just so everyone is clear about this now, yes, this is a massive Medicaid cut for the long-term. More than one-third of it—a whopping 35 percent—would be gone relative to current law, the Affordable Care Act. That, by the way, would kill a lot of people.
The end of Medicaid as we know it? No exaggeration. The Senate version of Trumpcare has worse long-term cuts to Medicaid than the House version, to pay for tax breaks to the wealthy. Call your Republican senator at (202) 224-3121, and give them a piece of your mind. Tell us how it went.