Leading Off
● NM-Gov: On Monday, GOP Rep. Steve Pearce announced that he would run to succeed termed-out New Mexico Republican Gov. Susana Martinez. Pearce, who represents the southern part of the state, is the first prominent Republican to enter the race. He could also very well be the last: As local political reporter Joe Monahan puts it, Pearce "will need perfect flying conditions to pull off the upset," or else his bid "is going to look like a kamikaze mission." The latter outcomes seems a lot more likely.
Campaign Action
The once-popular Martinez has seen her poll numbers crater in recent years, and Trump is unlikely to be anything but a liability in a state that backed Clinton 48-40. Unless something changes, the eventual GOP nominee is going to need to convince voters unhappy with both the state and national Republican Party that they should elect another Republican.
Pearce also may not exactly be the best messenger in what has become a Democratic-leaning state in federal elections. Back in 2008, Pearce gave up his House seat to run for an open U.S. Senate seat, and he got crushed by Democrat Tom Udall 61-39, running quite a bit behind John McCain's tough 57-42 statewide loss. Pearce won back his district two years later, but the already-conservative congressman seems to have gotten even worse since returning to D.C.
Most infamously, Peace, a member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, released a 2014 memoir that featured a passage where the congressman, citing the Bible, wrote, "The wife is to voluntarily submit, just as the husband is to lovingly lead and sacrifice." He simultaneously insisted that "submission is not a matter of superior versus inferior," but good luck explaining that one.
Pearce might be feeling buoyed by a late May survey from the Tarrance Group, a GOP pollster that has worked with the congressman in the past. The firm dropped a poll on behalf of an unknown client that gave Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is running in the Democratic primary, just a 47-43 lead over the congressman, though that 43 percent might be closer to a ceiling rather than a floor for him.
Pearce may also be hoping that Lujan Grisham, state Sen. Joe Cervantes, and businessman Jeff Apodaca beat each other up enough in the Democratic primary to weaken the eventual nominee. Meanwhile, he's likely to have a clear field himself: Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, a fellow Republican, announced on Monday that he wouldn't run for governor. Still, Pearce is going to need a lot of luck in what's looking like a tough environment of Republicans in the Land of Enchantment.
2Q Fundraising
● ND-Sen: Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc): $1.3 million raised, $3 million cash-on-hand
● OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): $2.6 million raised, $6.7 million cash-on-hand
● CO-Gov: Doug Robinson (R): $208,000 raised (in two months), $57,000 self-funded, $175,000 cash-on-hand
● CT-Gov: Kevin Lembo (D): $143,000 raised (in nine weeks)
● GA-Gov: Casey Cagle (R) $2.7 million raised, $2.5 million cash-on-hand; Hunter Hill (R): $1 million raised; Stacey Abrams (D): $540,000 raised, $220,000 cash-on-hand
● MA-Gov: Charlie Baker (R-inc): $1.8 million raised (in the first half of 2017), $6 million cash-on-hand
● SC-Gov: Henry McMaster (R-inc): $800,000 raised; Catherine Templeton (R): $751,000 raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand
● KS-03: Kevin Yoder (R-inc): $470,000 raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand
● NE-02: Kara Eastman (D): $30,000 (since late May)
● NY-19: Antonio Delgado (D): $350,000 raised
Senate
● AL-Sen: Rep. Mo Brooks' first ad ahead of next month's fast-approaching GOP Senate primary features the congressman talking directly to the camera to tout his conservative bona fides by promising he'll fight for Trump's Mexico border wall. Brooks even vows he'll filibuster every spending bill without wall funding by reading the Bible if he has to.
● MO-Sen: GOP pollster Remington Research, polling for the Missouri Scout, has good news for several Missouri Republicans who might try to oust Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill next year. Although McCaskill has yet to draw a high-profile GOP challenger, Remington tested four prominent Republicans whose names have come up recently, and they all post modest leads over the incumbent. McCaskill trails Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer 50-43, state Treasurer Eric Schmitt 49-45, Rep. Vicky Hartzler 48-44, and Rep. Jason Smith 48-45. While her opponents likely start out with lower name recognition, only 40 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of McCaskill and 45 percent an unfavorable one.
Rep. Ann Wagner, who had looked like a possible frontrunner, recently surprised the political world by not running, thus opening up the floodgates for other Missouri Republicans. Hartzler previously refused to rule out running, and a former campaign manager recently reiterated that she still hasn't made up her mind, relaying that she has no timeline for making a decision. Meanwhile, Smith's political director said on Friday that his boss isn't "actively considering" it, which isn't exactly a no. Schmitt was previously reported to be thinking about running while Luetkemeyer's name has only been mentioned in news reporters; neither man has said anything about their interest in the race publicly yet.
While Republicans may be salivating over challenging McCaskill, the incumbent posted yet another gangbusters fundraising quarter, hauling in $3.1 million and finishing June with $5.1 million on hand. McCaskill faces a tough challenge to win a third term in this 56-38 Trump state, but a potentially crowded Republican primary would only give her more time to build up her war chest ahead of next year while her opponents expend their resources to win the GOP nomination.
● WV-Sen: On Monday, West Virginia state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey kicked off his long-expected Senate campaign, becoming the second prominent Republican in the race against Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin. Morrisey has served in his current post since ousting a longtime Democratic incumbent in 2012, and he easily won his second term last year amid Donald Trump's 68-22 landslide in this ancestrally Democratic state.
Morrisey's entry into the race sets up a battle-royale GOP primary with Rep. Evan Jenkins, and both men may have some vulnerabilities in this famously parochial state. Jenkins served 18 years in the legislature as a Democrat until switching parties to run for House in 2013. Democrats still hold a large registration advantage in conservative West Virginia, and Jenkins' conversion might not bother many of those Democrats In Name Only who are accustomed to voting Republican in general elections, but the state's closed primary means they'll have to finally switch their registration if they want to support him over Morrisey.
On the other hand, Morrisey's GOP bona fides stretch back much further, seeing as he ran for U.S. House in 2000 as a Republican … in New Jersey. Morrisey only moved to West Virginia in 2006, and Jenkins could try to paint his Brooklyn-born opponent as a city-slicker from that dreaded libruhl wasteland of New York City.
Morrisey's allies have already been marshaling resources behind a super PAC over the last two months, training their fire on Jenkins over his relatively late conversion. Jenkins, meanwhile, was sitting on $1 million in cash-on-hand at the end of March and has likely plumped up his stash since, but a high-profile primary will undoubtedly drain resources that he had probably hoped to stockpile against Manchin.
West Virginia has lurched hard to the right over the past two decades at the federal level, and Manchin's association with national Democrats give Republicans a solid opening against him even if they have to overcome a bruising primary. However, the moderate incumbent's personal popularity and the Democratic party's relative resilience at the state level are encouraging signs for Manchin's hope of winning another term next year in Trump's second-best state nationally.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: A legit "whoa, if true" story: According to a report in the Denver Post that popped up on Monday evening, Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter will announce on Tuesday that he's dropping his bid for Colorado's open governorship next year. Much more to come, no doubt, so we'll save any further analysis if and when this all comes to pass (or if it doesn't).
● ME-Gov: State Attorney General Janet Mills joined next year's Democratic primary for governor on Monday, instantly becoming the most prominent Democrat in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Paul LePage. Unlike most states, Maine's attorney general isn't directly elected, but is instead chosen by a joint session of the legislature. Mills has served as attorney general for over six years on and off since 2009, and she previously won four terms in the state House before that.
She has often opposed LePage's administration in her capacity as the state's top law enforcement officer and said his recent decision to shut down the state government over the budget helped spur her to finally run for governor.
In addition to Mills, the Democratic field already includes businessman Adam Cote and activist Betsy Sweet, but neither has the kind of name recognition Mills does. However, Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap has also said he's considering running, as have some other Democrats.
House
● MI-08: On Monday, national security expert Elissa Slotkin made her campaign official against two-term GOP Rep. Mike Bishop, giving Democrats their first noteworthy candidate in Michigan's 8th District. Slotkin does not appear to have run for office before, but she worked in the Department of Defense and State Department during the Obama administration and also served three tours of duty in Iraq as a CIA agent.
Covering Lansing and Detroit's wealthy northwestern suburbs, Republicans gerrymandered the 8th to remain securely red, and Bishop easily defeated a touted Democratic foe last year as Trump won the seat 51-44. However, Romney won it just 51-48, and it's the type of relatively well-educated suburban seat that Democrats hope to put into play in their quest for a House majority next year.
● MN-08: St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber announced his candidacy on Monday for the 8th District in northeastern Minnesota's Iron Range, giving Republicans their first major challenger to vulnerable Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan for 2018. Stauber has served on the Duluth police force for over two decades, attaining the rank of lieutenant. He also worked for the Detroit Red Wings hockey organization during his youth, and while he never made it to the NHL, Stauber captained a team that won the national championship in 1988 when he was in college in Michigan.
The 8th was once a Democratic bastion, but Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee in 88 years to win the territory covered by the current district lines last year. His 54-39 rout there marked an enormous swing to the right from Obama's 52-46 edge in 2012, and it also gives Nolan the unpleasant distinction of holding second-reddest district of any House Democrat.
Despite the intense headwinds, Nolan eked out razor-thin margins in two fiercely contested races against wealthy businessman Stewart Mills in both 2014 and 2016. Mills has previously said he's considering a third straight campaign, but Republicans may want to look elsewhere after Democrats effectively pilloried Mills as an out-of-touch rich guy in this historically working-class rural district, where Stauber's background could be a better fit. Trump's daunting margin of victory here combined with the region's long-term GOP trend mean Nolan will likely be in for another hard-fought race in the event he seeks a fourth consecutive term next year.
● NC-02: Vodka distillery owner Sam Searcy launched his campaign against wealthy Republican Rep. George Holding on Monday in the 2nd District, which includes Raleigh's suburbs/exurbs and Rocky Mount. Searcy, a Democrat and North Carolina native, worked in clinical research before recently opening up his small distilling business. He's making his first bid for elected office, so we'll have to see whether he has the skills needed for a tough race.
Holding has won his last three terms with ease ever since Republicans hyper-aggressively gerrymandered North Carolina following the 2010 census, but a round of court-ordered redistricting last year left him with the GOP's best-educated seat in the state. Trump's 53-44 margin here gives Searcy or any other Democratic contender very challenging terrain, but the 2nd is just the type of relatively well-off suburban seat that Team Blue might be able to put into play if the national environment next year favors them thanks to a Trump backlash.
● NC-03: Republican Rep. Walter Jones has been the source of many headaches for the House leadership for a long time, and he's faced primary challenges for years in his safely red seat in coastal North Carolina. Jones has always won, but yet another Republican is hoping that the base has finally had enough of Jones' iconoclastic ways. Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey has kicked off a primary bid against the 12-term incumbent, arguing that Trump needs someone more supportive of his agenda in D.C.
Jones said back in early 2015 that he "like[s] to be a thorn in people's ass," and he's continued to prove himself true. This year alone, Jones voted against the House version of Trumpcare, arguing that he couldn't support the bill because there was no updated Congressional Budget Office score.
Jones was also the rare Republican who voted for the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act that added new restrictions on the financial industry to protect consumers after the 2008 financial crisis, and last month, he was the only Republican in the chamber to vote against repealing major parts of the law. And while Jones was originally such an ardent Iraq War supporter that he was one of the brains behind "freedom fries," he's long since become one of the GOP's loudest voices against foreign intervention.
Thanks to his many apostasies, Jones earned his first primary opponent back in 2008, winning just 59 percent of the vote, but he avoided serious opposition over the next two cycles. In 2014, some establishment Republicans banded together behind a challenge issued by former George W. Bush aide Taylor Griffin, who held Jones to a dicey 51-45 win. However, while Griffin sought a rematch last year, he received little outside support and crashed and burned. Jones ended up outpacing another underfunded primary foe 65-20, with Griffin taking just 15.
We'll see if primary voters continue to put up with Jones, or if Dacey can finally convince them that this seat needs a more reliable Republican representative. North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, which includes New Bern and much of the coast, backed Trump 61-37.
● NM-02: GOP Rep. Steve Pearce's decision to run for governor opens up New Mexico's sprawling southern 2nd District, a seat Trump carried 50-40. Republicans therefore start out favored to keep it, though longtime election watchers will remember that in 2008, when Pearce ran for the Senate, Democrat Harry Teague flipped the district. (Redistricting barely changed New Mexico's House map, so the 2008 version of this district is almost identical to today's.) Pearce returned and unseated Teague two years later during the GOP wave, however, and he's faced little opposition since then.
On Wednesday, just before Pearce made his announcement, GOP state Sen. Cliff Pirtle told the Roswell Daily Record that he was interested in running here. (Pearce had been publicly contemplating his run for governor.) Back in 2010, before he had ever won elected office, Pirtle ran for this seat and lost the primary to Pearce by a humiliating 85-15 margin. However, Pirtle narrowly won a state Senate primary two years later and went on to unseat a Democratic incumbent.
Pirtle almost certainly wouldn't be alone, though. GOP Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, who had been considering running for governor himself, told NMPolitics on Monday that he wouldn't oppose Pearce's gubernatorial bid and instead might run for his open seat. However, Dunn also said he could run for re-election or for the state's Public Regulation Commission.
A few Democrats were already running before Pearce bailed. One who drew our attention recently was Tony Martinez, an Army veteran and a former pharmaceutical executive. We'll see if other Democrats take an in interest in this tough seat now that it's open.
● OK-02: Last week, Republican Rep. Markwayne Mullin announced that he would seek re-election rather follow through with his 2012 pledge to leave the House after three terms. That unsurprisingly did not sit well with ex-Sen. Tom Coburn, a Republican who represented a previous version of this conservative eastern Oklahoma seat in the 1990s and actually did leave the House after he hit his self-imposed term limit.
Last cycle, when Mullin started to back away from his old promise, Coburn backed Army veteran Jarrin Jackson in the primary. Mullin won 62-38, but Coburn told NewsOk that he'll support Jackson if he tries again. Jackson's website says he is interested in another try, though he adds that unnamed "things need to line up for that to happen."
It looks likely that Coburn will try to undermine Mullin regardless of who runs, though: Coburn declared that Mullin has decided that truth and integrity don't matter because "that's part of the Washington Kool-Aid that he's drunk." (What flavor is that exactly?)
● SD-AL: With GOP Rep. Kristi Noem running for governor, South Dakota's lone congressional district will be open next year for the first time since 2004's celebrated special election, and Democrats will shortly have a noteworthy candidate in the race. Former state court judge Tim Bjorkman, who stepped down from his prior post last month, says he'll announce a bid on Thursday. Bjorkman's candidacy was greeted warmly by the executive director for the state Democratic Party, who praised his "distinguished record" and called him a "strong fighter." Bjorkman also has experience winning elections, albeit nonpartisan ones: He won his first eight-year term on the bench in 2006 and was successfully re-elected in 2014.
However, he may not have the primary to himself. At a Democratic Party town hall on tribal issues just a few days ago, two of the headliners, state Sen. Troy Heinert and state Rep. Shawn Bordeaux, didn't rule out bids of their own, and it seems that former state Secretary of Tribal Relations J.R. LaPlante may have held the door open for himself, too. Bjorkman does not appear to have been in attendance at the event.
Whomever Democrats tap, though, will face a very difficult time winning here. No Democrat has won a federal election in South Dakota since 2008, and the GOP holds every statewide office—not exactly a surprise in a state that Donald Trump carried 62-32. Republicans also have two prominent candidates already running, former public utilities commissioner Dusty Johnson and Secretary of State Shantel Krebs.
● TX-23: For the first time, former USDA official Judy Canales has confirmed she's looking at a challenge to GOP Rep. Will Hurt next year, saying she's "very enthusiastic" about a possible bid. EMILY's List is also reportedly interested in Canales. So far, however, no Democrats have yet to announce a run against GOP Rep. Will Hurd, who represents Texas' one legitimately swingy district, and a big reason is because the seat could get heavily redrawn as a result of a long-pending redistricting lawsuit. Canales, though, says she's unconcerned about the case, making it sound as though she's planning to run no matter what happens in court.
● VA-07: Virginia's 7th Congressional District—yes, Eric Cantor's old seat—has never been hospitable turf for Democrats, but Donald Trump slipped from Mitt Romney's 56-44 victory four years earlier, winning by a slimmer 51-44 margin. That gives Team Blue a bit of hope that they could put this seat in play, and on Monday, the first notable Democratic candidate, former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger entered the race. Spanberger spent her career gathering foreign intelligence and investigating money laundering, which is a pretty appropriate skillset for anyone wanting to do battle in the Trump era.
First, though, she'll have to go up against tea partying GOP Rep. Dave Brat, who etched his name into lore three years ago when he defeated Cantor, at the time the number-two ranking Republican in the House. So fluky was Brat's win, and so distressing was it to establishment-minded Republicans, that they began circling behind a serious primary challenger. However, Brat allies took control of the district-level GOP committee and voted to eschew a primary in favor of a convention, which would have almost certainly been dominated by ideological activists friendly to the incumbent.
As a result, Brat was able to avoid any intra-party warfare and cruised to a second term last November. It's possible that the Republican-on-Republican violence we were all waiting for last year could still materialize, but unless anti-Brat forces experience a resurgence, it's likely gonna be conventions all the way down.