Latest news out of Virginia today courtesy of Monmouth University’s latest poll:
The race for Virginia governor is neck and neck in the first Monmouth University Poll of the 2017 election there. Pres. Trump could be having a small but decisive impact on the election as it stands now, driving some voters toward the Democratic nominee. The poll also finds that health care is the top issue for Virginia voters in this election.
Currently, 44% of likely voters support Republican Ed Gillespie and 44% support Democrat Ralph Northam. Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra gets 3% of the vote and 9% are undecided. Gillespie has 91% support among his fellow Republicans and Northam has 88% support among his fellow Democrats. Independents prefer the GOP nominee by a narrow 42% to 38% margin.
Donald Trump may not be the top issue for most Virginia voters, but he is having an impact on the 2017 election. Specifically, 4-in-10 voters say that Pres. Trump is either a major factor (26%) or minor factor (14%) in deciding how they will vote for governor. Those saying Trump is a factor include 52% of Northam supporters, 32% of Gillespie supporters, and 32% of those who are undecided or are supporting the third party candidate.
While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation.
"A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Murray added, "National pundits like to paint Virginia gubernatorial races as referenda on whichever president was just elected and they are almost always wrong. 2017 may turn out to be the first time you can credibly draw a direct link between the Oval Office and the race for governor."
Currently, just 37% of likely voters in Virginia approve of the job Trump is doing as president while 57% disapprove. Among Gillespie voters, 78% approve of Trump and 18% disapprove. Among Northam voters, less than 1% approve of the president's performance and 96% disapprove. Among those who are undecided or support the third party candidate, 22% approve and 60% disapprove of Trump.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 20 to 23, 2017 with 502 Virginia residents likely to vote in the 2017 gubernatorial election. The results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
While other polls like Quinnipac give Northam the lead, we should never take Gillespie and the GOP for granted. This race is still winnable but it’s going to be close and we need to get ready. Click here to donate and get involved with Northam’s campaign.