The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● AZ-Sen: This could be a very big get for Democrats if it pans out. Earlier in the week, the New York Times tantalizingly reported that Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton was "believed to be considering a campaign" against Sen. Jeff Flake, one of just a tiny handful of vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election next year. Now the Arizona Republic offers just a little bit more, saying Stanton "is expected to make a decision about his 2018 intentions this summer."
There's no direct quote from Stanton that he's even weighing the race, but the context here is remarks Stanton recently made excoriating the GOP's attempt to repeal Obamacare, which he called "an all-out assault on the people of Arizona." As the top elected official in Arizona's largest city, Stanton already represents about 22 percent of the state, giving him a big perch from which to launch a campaign. He'd also be term-limited come 2019, when the mayoralty next goes before voters, so he'd be looking for a new job soon enough anyway. At just 47 years old, even a tough campaign against Flake would make sense, since Stanton's made it evident that he wants to keep moving upward politically.
However, it's also possible that he could be eyeing a bid for governor, something he telegraphed with a speech a few months ago excoriating GOP Gov. Doug Ducey, who, like Flake, is also up for a second term in 2018. This would also be a challenging race for Stanton, but with congressional Republicans intent on fulfilling their suicide pact with Donald Trump, it may be that Flake is looking like the juicier target these days.
Gubernatorial
● WI-Gov: Democratic Madison Mayor Paul Soglin has previously expressed his interest in challenging GOP Gov. Scott Walker next year, and he now says "a decision will probably be made sometime around Labor Day," while he's "preparing" to run for both governor and re-election in 2019. With a career as mayor that includes three separate tenures over the past five decades, it's unclear just how enthusiastic Soglin is about only now seeking higher office.
Democrats thus far have no noteworthy candidates in the running to face Walker, who will likely seek a third term despite no official announcement yet. However, several other candidates are currently considering it for Team Blue, including state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ, and a few others.
House
● CO-06: Democratic state Sen. Rhonda Fields had previously been mentioned as a possible challenger to GOP Rep. Mike Coffman next year in this swingy 50-41 Clinton district, but has yet to say anything publicly about running. However, EMILY's List has reportedly had preliminary talks with Fields according to National Journal, which could mean she's at least somewhat interested. So far the only noteworthy Democrats who have kicked off their campaigns here are men, which could help Fields stand out as the only prominent woman in the race if she runs.
Fields was only first elected to the state Senate last year after serving in the state House, but she notably hails from the heart of this suburban district in Aurora, unlike some of the announced Democratic candidates, who come from outside the 6th in Denver. The current Democratic field presently includes attorney and veteran Jason Crow, attorney David Aarestad, and clean-energy expert Levi Tillemann.
● FL-07: On Thursday, Republican state Rep. Mike Miller kicked off his campaign against first-term Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy in Florida's 7th District, which is located in Orlando and its northern suburbs. Miller won his second term 53-47 last year even as his downtown Orlando state House seat swung from a narrow Obama win to a Clinton 53-41 edge, according to Florida political data expert Matthew Isbell. He thus has experience winning tough races in territory with similar partisanship to the 7th, which went from a razor-thin Obama victory to a voting 51-44 for Clinton.
Miller's entry into the race gives Team Red a potentially top-tier candidate in what is shaping up to be one of their biggest offensive opportunities nationally, but he may end up facing a primary against another GOP heavyweight first. State Sen. David Simmons, who represents roughly three-fifths of this congressional seat in the state Senate, once again reiterated on Thursday that he's "98 percent" likely to run, although he did not give any timeframe for when he might announce his decision.
● MN-01: Iraq War Army veteran Dan Feehan recently confirmed that he will run for southern Minnesota's 1st District next year, becoming the third noteworthy Democrat to join the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Tim Walz, who left the 1st open to run for governor. Feehan previously served as an official in the Defense Department and only recently moved back to the district after growing up there, while this seems to be his first bid for elected office. There's no word on whether Feehan will abide by the state nominating convention process before the primary next year.
Feehan joins a Democratic field that includes former state Sen. Vicki Jensen and businessman Colin Minehart in this historically swingy district, which lurched rightward from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump in 2016. Democratic state Sen. Nick Frentz had previously said he was thinking about running here, but he recently stated that "right now, [he's] leaning against" jumping in.
● NV-03: According to the Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston, professional golfer Natalie Gulbis, a D-lister whose name made every sad roster of celebrity Trump backers just below Scott Baio's, has met with the NRCC about a possible run for Nevada's 3rd Congressional District. According to an unnamed GOP operative, "Republicans are excited about Gulbis," who we guess would be the first full-time golfer to make it to Washington. Oh, wait, whoops. The second.
What's a bit surprising here is that the GOP certainly has other options for this seat (which will likely soon be open, as freshmen Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen is almost certain to launch a Senate bid soon), including state Sen. Scott Hammond, who recently said he's exploring a run for the House. However, a massive problem lurks for them in the form of wealthy perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who lost a squeaker to Rosen last year and sounds eager to run again. Perhaps Gulbis tests better against him in a primary? We'll see.
Meanwhile, the first possible Democratic name has also surfaced, per Ralston, who says that education activist Susie Lee "is believed to be interested." Lee ran in the neighboring 4th District last year and finished third in the Democratic primary with just 21 percent of the vote, though the eventual winner, now-Rep. Ruben Kihuen, had the backing of Harry Reid's powerful political machine—a difficult force for anyone in Nevada to beat. Lee might be appealing to DC recruiters because of her personal wealth (she self-funded her campaign with about $678,000), and because there aren't too many alternatives in this district that Trump narrowly won, 48-47.
● NY-22: Just days after he joined the race, Democratic Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi earned the endorsement of New York's powerful senior senator, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The senator's rare foray into House recruiting demonstrates unambiguously that Brindisi will have national party support in his challenge against GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney in this Utica and Binghamton-area seat, which swerved from a razor-thin Romney win to a 55-39 Trump edge last year. Brindisi's moderate record could theoretically give a primary opponent an opening with the base, even though it's likely a plus with swing voters in this historically GOP seat. However, he appears unlikely to face a major primary foe.
● PA-07: Democrats look like they have a top-tier recruit to take on GOP Rep. Pat Meehan in the form of state Sen. Daylin Leach, who appears set to announce a bid next month, but Leach won't have the Democratic primary to himself. Paul Perry, a former teacher, also recently launched a campaign, and though he doesn't have a prominent background, he does have an interesting profile: He's the adoptive son of two fathers (both military veterans), and his biological mother (who he says "struggled with addiction") was pregnant with him while in prison.
Perry also has the support of a new organization called Brand New Congress, which is run by former Bernie Sanders staffers and aims to elect people who support Sanders' political platform. Several other Democrats are also running in this swingy district in the Philadelphia suburbs, including attorney Dan Muroff, realtor Elizabeth Moro, and research scientist Molly Sheehan.
● TX-32: Former Hillary Clinton staffer Ed Meier has scored the backing of Obama's ex-Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in a recent fundraising email ahead of next year's Democratic primary. The support of a former cabinet member with no ties to the district might normally not be that noteworthy, but Lew is the type of official who likely knows a whole host of wealthy and well-connected people who might donate. Meier currently faces civil rights attorney Colin Allred in a competitive Democratic nomination battle to take on GOP Rep. Pete Sessions in this suburban northern Dallas seat, which flipped from 57-41 Romney to 49-47 Clinton.
Mayoral
● Seattle, WA Mayor: Outgoing mayor Ed Murray's endorsement of ex-U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan got most of the press on Thursday, but there have been a series of recent lower-profile endorsements in the Seattle mayoral race that haven't really gone according to type: state Sen. Bob Hasegawa is generally considered the "labor" candidate in the race, but so far most of the labor endorsements in the race have gone to ex-state Rep. Jessyn Farrell, who, for lack of a better one-word pigeonhole, usually gets assigned the "urbanist" lane.
Most notably, Farrell got the backing of the Aerospace Machinists union on Thursday, who represent Boeing assembly-line employees and are probably the biggest local union prize. But she's also recently gotten the backing of the local United Food and Commercial Workers (who backed Mike McGinn in the 2009 and 2013 elections), and even more surprisingly, Teamsters local 117. (That's surprising because Hasegawa used to be a leader within the Teamsters, though that was for local 174, which is still expected to back him.) The UFCW, for their part, cite Farrell's work in the legislature on the statewide minimum wage and on-the-job protections for pregnant employees.
Grab Bag
● ME Ballot: Electoral-reform proponents scored a major—and unexpected—victory on Wednesday when Maine's state legislature failed to advance a measure to repeal the state's new instant-runoff voting (IRV) law, leaving it on course for implementation in 2018. In a non-binding opinion issued in May, Maine's state Supreme Court opinion said that IRV (sometimes called ranked-choice voting) was unconstitutional for state-level general elections, but not for primaries or federal races. That opinion gave IRV's opponents, who are mostly Republicans but include some Democrats, a pretext to unsuccessfully try to repeal the voter-approved statute, but that effort failed.
Republicans control the state Senate while Democrats run the state House, and the two parties reached a deal to hold a vote on a constitutional amendment that would eliminate the apparent legal conflict. However, it was all political theater, because GOP opposition meant that the amendment would never reach the two-thirds supermajorities needed to send it to a voter referendum for eventual ratification.
After the amendment predictably failed last week, the Senate proceeded to pass a billto fully repeal IRV, with a few Democrats siding with the Republicans. However, under pressure from activists—who had threatened to place a "people's veto" on the ballot to block any repeal legislation—the House instead passed a competing measure. That proposal would implement IRV for primaries and federal races while merely suspending it for state general elections unless and until the constitution were amended to make that aspect kosher. Faced with differing bills, the opposing chambers failed to reach any compromise, taking repeal off the table this year as the 2017 legislative session draws to a close.
So where does that leave Maine voters? With the legislature at an impasse, the current legal landscape has IRV slated for full implementation starting in 2018. But thanks to the state Supreme Court's advisory opinion, there will almost certainly be lawsuits to block IRV from going into effect for state general elections, which have a good chance of success. However, barring a major change of course by either legislative Democrats or the high court, IRV will be used in all primaries next year, plus the November general elections for the U.S. House and Senate.
As a result, Maine will become the first state in America to adopt instant-runoff voting statewide, although utilizing it for state-level general elections would have been the most important aspect of this reform since no candidate has won a majority in nine of the state's last 11 gubernatorial races. Hopefully, if this more inclusive electoral system produces meaningful changes in primary outcomes on both sides of the aisle, voters of all stripes will demand their legislators pass a constitutional amendment to finally implement IRV for all races.
● Radio: Carolyn Fiddler was on Friday morning's edition of the Bill Press Show to talk state politics. Even though it's a radio show, there's video of the occasion, and you can watch her on the radio here (her segment is the last leg of the show, starts at 1:39).
● Voting Rights Roundup: In May, Donald Trump created a "Voting Integrity Commission" that has now launched the opening barrage in its campaign to undermine confidence in the electoral process. The board is proposing to scrutinize each state's voter registration records and intimidate the states into conducting voter registration purges—and it's named America's most prominent voter-fraud scaremonger to the commission itself. These actions are designed to give Trump and congressional Republicans a pretext to finally impose new voting restrictions at the national level. Read more about this story and other news in Daily Kos Elections' weekly Voting Rights Roundup.
● Where Are They Now?: On Thursday, Trump nominated Republican former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to become the next U.S. ambassador to NATO. Hutchison's 1993 Senate special election landslide to succeed Bill Clinton's first Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen gave Texas two GOP senators simultaneously for the first time since Reconstruction. She made an ill-fated Republican primary challenge to then-Gov. Rick Perry in 2010 that saw her lose 51-30, after which she ultimately retired from office in 2013.
