The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● AZ-Sen, AZ-09: On Friday, local NBC-affiliate KPNX reported that Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is planning on running for Senate against Republican incumbent Jeff Flake, while Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, a fellow Democrat who has reportedly been considering a Senate bid of his own, will instead run to replace Sinema in the House. Neither Sinema nor Stanton has formally declared yet, and Sinema responded only by issuing a statement that she is "seriously considering" running, but that's still the most direct she has been about her interest in the race.
Campaign Action
Sinema would be a top recruit for Democrats in this light-red state, where the party has a relatively thin bench of prominent elected officials for a statewide race, and she has long been seen as one of the likelier potential Democratic contestants against Flake. Sinema has already been fundraising like someone thinking about running for Senate, having brought in $633,000 in the second quarter and finishing the month of June with $3.2 million in the bank, which was even more than Flake's $3 million in cash-on-hand. This hefty fundraising comes even as Sinema won her last race by 61-39 and doesn't appear vulnerable if she were to seek re-election in 2018.
If Sinema does end up running, it may be because Flake has eviscerated his public standing in the Grand Canyon State by pissing off both swing voters and the far-right element of the party base that has long viewed him with skepticism. As one of the Senate's relatively hardcore libertarians on fiscal issues, Flake voted for all of the GOP's recent health care bills, which have been extremely unpopular and would prove especially harmful to states like Arizona that expanded Medicaid. Indeed, one recent PPP poll found Flake's approval rating at an atrocious 18 percent with 62 percent disapproving, and it showed him losing to a generic Democratic candidate by 47-31.
On the other hand, Flake's vocal opposition to Trump has landed him in hot water with the party base, which still adores Trump in Arizona. This hostility to the party's current leader culminated with Flake secretly writing a book where he lambasted the party for making a deal with the devil and abandoning the movement-conservative principles of those like former Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater in order to win power with someone unorthodox like Trump. Flake is notably far less hawkish on immigration than Trump, but Arizona Republicans are notorious for favoring harsh anti-immigrant laws. Consequently, that same PPP poll placed Flake's approval at just 22 percent with 57 disapproving among Republicans.
Flake's visible apostasies have incurred the ire of many prominent hardliners in the GOP, and he currently faces a primary challenge from former state Sen. Kelli Ward, but Ward has her own flaws and raised just $183,000 in the second quarter. However, she held longtime Sen. John McCain to just a 51-40 win in the 2016 primary, and Flake is much less entrenched than McCain was. Previous reports indicated that Trump himself is keen on finding a challenger to Flake, but some Republicans aren't sold on Ward. However, billionaire GOP mega-donor Robert Mercer recently dropped $300,000 on a super PAC to support Ward in the primary. The Mercer family spent $700,000 supporting Ward's 2016 campaign, and their influence with other major donors could open up the doors for even more money this cycle.
There's still about a year to go until Arizona's 2018 primary, and Flake's numbers could recover somewhat as more time passes since the health care debate. However, Flake could emerge damaged even if he ultimately wins renomination, and Democrats are certain to attack him over Trumpcare. Sinema's three-term congressional career has shown her demonstrate remarkable political caution, having evolved from a Green Party-supporter in the 2000 presidential race to maintaining a centrist congressional voting record in likely preparation for an eventual statewide campaign in this Republican-leaning state. Her potential candidacy is a sign that Flake is indeed vulnerable to defeat in what is shaping up to be a Democratic-favoring year nationally.
If Sinema does take the plunge, she would leave behind a suburban Phoenix and Tempe-based 9th District that swung from a narrow 51-47 Obama edge to a wide 55-38 Clinton victory. Having served as mayor of Arizona's largest city since his initial 2011 election, Greg Stanton would be a strong contender for Democrats and would likely be favored to hold this seat for Team Blue if he ends up running to replace Sinema. However, Republicans appear to have a viable candidate in this seat. Retired Navy physician Steve Ferrara raised a credible $253,000 from donors from April to June, and he had $245,000 in the bank at the end of June.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Alabama-based pollster Cygnal returns for what may be their final poll of Tuesday's upcoming Senate special election GOP primary. The pollster gives Roy Moore a plurality of 31 percent, while Luther Strange takes 23 percent, and Mo Brooks earns just 18 percent and fails to make the September runoff. In a hypothetical second round, Cygnal says Moore would beat Strange 45-34. These numbers are a reversal from Cygnal's late-July poll, where Strange led Moore 33-26 in the first round, but that survey also had Brooks getting eliminated with a similar 16 percent. These latest numbers fit a trend from other pollsters where Moore and Strange take first and second place, respectively, while a hypothetical runoff between them is still far from settled.
Trafalgar Group also weighed in with what's likely their first and last poll ahead of Tuesday's GOP Senate primary, and they unsurprisingly have Roy Moore with a comfortable plurality of 35 percent. However, although they agree with other recent polls that Luther Strange takes second place and would thus face Moore in a runoff, his 23 percent is much closer to Mo Brooks' 20 percent than some of those other recent surveys, which would add some suspense to who snags the second runoff spot if these numbers are accurate.
Brooks aired one more ad bashing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, which starts off with a screenshot of an angry Trump tweet bemoaning how McConnell can't get anything done. The cheaply produced segment then features Brooks blaming McConnell and Strange for failing to repeal Obamacare and pursue other conservative policies because they're weak. Brooks promises to be strong and fight for Trump's agenda if elected.
Meanwhile, Democrats have their own potentially problematic primary to deal with. The party has one rather serious candidate, former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones. However, multiple polls have shown him struggling against businessman Robert Kennedy, Jr., an almost completely unknown candidate who just happens to share a name with the famous Kennedy family scion despite no relation.
To ensure that Jones wins the nomination, or at least prevents Kennedy from winning Tuesday's primary outright without a runoff, several prominent Alabama and national Democrats have come to the rescue to endorse Jones. That list includes Rep. Terri Sewell, who is Alabama's lone Democratic member of Congress, former Vice President Joe Biden, plus legendary civil rights leader and Georgia Rep. John Lewis.
Gubernatorial
● GA-Gov: On Thursday, news broke that former President Jimmy Carter had given his support to former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams in the Democratic primary for governor; while Carter didn't issue an official endorsement at the time, his expression that "she's going to be—possibly, and hopefully for me—our next governor of Georgia" was clear enough.
However, Carter walked back those remarks on Thursday, releasing a statement declaring that he would not be taking sides in the primary between Abrams and fellow state Rep. Stacey Evans. Both Abrams and Evans have already drawn official support from other prominent Georgia Democrats in what's shaping up to be a competitive primary.
● FL-Gov: On Friday, Republican state Sen. Jack Latvala went ahead and filed the paperwork to run for governor next year, eagerly tweeting about it while a formal announcement will likely come on Aug. 16 like he had originally planned. Despite being term-limited in the state Senate next year, Latvala's fundraising strongly hinted at a gubernatorial campaign for a while after he already had $3.8 million in cash-on-hand at the end of July. He also chairs the Senate's appropriations committee, which should give him useful connections to raise a whole lot more in this expensive state.
Latvala is a relative moderate in a state where Republican primary voters have recently favored the more hardline conservative choice the last time there was an open gubernatorial or Senate race, which could give him problems. However, unlike most Southern states where it takes a majority to avoid a primary runoff, Latvala could prevail with just a plurality against a divided GOP field.
So far, well-funded state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is the only other prominent Republican in the race, but it wouldn't be surprising if another big name or two jumps into the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Rick Scott. State House Speaker Richard Corcoran, Rep. Ron DeSantis, and wealthy businessman "Alligator Ron" Bergeron have all said they're considering it before.
● HI-Gov: Hawai'i Public Radio recently reported on developments in Hawaii's gubernatorial contest, and their summary indicates that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is indeed considering whether or not to run against first-term Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary. They unfortunately don't provide a direct quote to that effect, but did relay that Hanabusa said "I'm always contemplating how best to serve the people of Hawaii." They write that Hanabusa intends to make a decision about whether to run by the end of August. Meanwhile, state Sen. Jill Tokuda had previously said she was considering running for governor, but she recently announced that she will instead run for the position of lieutenant governor next year.
● NV-Gov: Republican state Treasurer Dan Schwartz said last month that it was "virtually certain" that he'll run for governor, and all signs point to that being the case. Schwartz stated on Thursday that he won't run for a second term as treasurer, but would instead announce his future plans on Sept. 5. No other major Republicans have yet joined the gubernatorial primary to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, but state Attorney General Adam Laxalt is widely expected to run, which would set up a contested primary between him and Schwartz if they both do jump in.
● VA-Gov: Republican nominee Ed Gillespie launched two new ads ahead of this November's race for governor. The first spot blasts special interests in Richmond, with Gillespie promising to fight for tougher ethics and lobbying reforms. The second ad dishes out red meat to the base by showcasing Poquoson and York County Sheriff Danny Diggs singing Gillespie's praises as someone who will be "tough on crime." He says Gillespie will "ban sanctuary cities … and get tough on illegal immigration."
House
● CO-07: Last month, Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter dropped his bid for governor of Colorado, and announced that he would not turn around and seek re-election to his suburban Denver seat. However, several unnamed sources tell Colorado Politics that Perlmutter is reconsidering his plans to leave the House. An unnamed Democratic candidate for the 7th also relays that Perlmutter said he wanted to discuss the possibility of him running for re-election. It's unclear which direction Perlmutter is leaning. Several Democrats have entered the Democratic primary for this 51-39 Clinton seat.
● MA-03: Immediately after Democratic Rep. Niki Tsongas announced that she was retiring on Wednesday, speculation began that Daniel Koh, the chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, could seek the Democratic nomination to succeed her. Koh has said nothing yet, but Walsh relayed to the Boston Globe that he's told Koh that if he runs, he'd be "100 percent behind him," so Koh does seem to be considering. While none of Boston is in this district, Koh grew up in the 3rd District. Koh, who is 32 and was previously chief of staff to Arianna Huffington at the Huffington Post, is very well connected, and he's generated plenty of attention from the Boston media while serving in what's often a behind-the-scenes job.
A few more Democrats have also come forward and expressed interest in this Merrimack Valley seat. State Rep. Rep. Harold Naughton told State House News Service that he wasn't ruling out a bid, though he said he hasn't "given this much thought." George Ramirez, a former Lowell City Councilor who currently serves as an executive at the Massachusetts Development Finance Agency, said he'd consider, but only if state Sen. Eileen Donoghue didn't run.
Clinton carried this seat 58-35, and the GOP will have a very tough time flipping it. However, Republican candidates have won this seat in other statewide races, so it's possible a strong Republican could make this interesting. Wealthy businessman Rick Green, the founder of the conservative advocacy group Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance, has not said anything yet. But Paul Craney, who works for the group, says that Green is considering. Green considered challenging Sen. Elizabeth Warren for re-election earlier this cycle but passed.
● UT-03: Just ahead of the Tuesday's GOP primary to succeed Jason Chaffetz, Dan Jones & Associates is out with a poll on behalf of UtahPolicy.com. They give Provo Mayor John Curtis a 31-23 lead over ex-state Rep. Chis Herrod, who is backed by the anti-tax group the Club for Growth. Consultant Tanner Ainge, the son of Brigham Young University basketball star and current Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge, takes third with 15.
Curtis has decisively outspent each of his opponents. However, the Club aired an ad on Herrod's behalf against Curtis and Ainge. A new group called Conservative Utah also has been airing an ad on behalf of Ainge, and we recently learned that it is almost entirely funded by his parents' $250,000 contribution.
The GOP nominee will be favored in November in what is usually a very red seat, though special elections in the age of Trump have been anything but predictable.