JMC Analytics takes a look at the Sept. 26 GOP primary runoff, and gives Roy Moore, the former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, a huge 51-32 lead over appointed Sen. Luther Strange. This is the first poll we've seen of the runoff since last week's primary, where Moore led Strange 39-33 and Rep. Mo Brooks took 20. However, Cygnal dropped a mid-August poll of what was then a hypothetical Strange/Moore runoff that gave Moore a 45-34 edge, while an in-house poll for the conservative blog RRH Elections gave Moore a small 34-32 lead around that same time. We'll need to wait for more data to see if Strange really does start in this deep of a hole with a month to go.
If Strange really is badly losing, he may still be able to spend his way to victory. Moore brought in little cash during the first round of the primary, while Strange has the help of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's and his well-funded allies at the Senate Leadership Fund. Unless outside groups come to Moore’s aid, Strange and his allies will once again dominate the airwaves.
However, Moore has long been long popular with social conservatives for his strident anti-gay views, and he became a martyr for his fans after he was permanently suspended from the court for trying to defy the U.S. Supreme Court's order legalizing same-sex marriage. Primary turnout was anemic in August, which benefited Moore and his energized base. If a similar thing happens in September, Strange may have a tough time holding on no matter how much his side spends.