Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/8

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Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 5:35:28 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

PA Redistricting: Pennsylvania will soon redraw its congressional map after the state Supreme Court struck down the GOP's gerrymander, and it will likely be up to the court itself to create new nonpartisan districts. With that in mind, we're asking you to show us how you would draw the lines in this post by Stephen Wolf. Daily Kos Elections has also prepared two proposals to submit to the court, and we also present those maps with detailed demographic and electoral data. So fire up Dave's Redistricting App and post your proposals in the comments!

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 6:19:56 PM +00:00 · David Nir

NJ-07: Saying she wanted to avoid a "bloody primary," teacher Lisa Mandelblatt dropped her bid for Congress on Wednesday and endorsed former State Department official Tom Malinowski to take on Republican Rep. Leonard Lance this fall. Mandelblatt hadn't raised a ton during her time as a candidate, but she'd loaned her campaign $300,000, so she was competitive on the money front. Malinowski, however, completely cleaned up: In the fourth quarter of 2017 (his first in the race), he pulled in a monster $527,000 from donors, leaving him with $446,000 in the bank.

However, there are still four other Democrats running, though they all trail in fundraising, and none have a profile like Malinowski's (he's a prominent diplomat and was a longtime director of Human Rights Watch). But as Politico notes, one of Malinowski's rivals, bank executive Linda Weber, has the official party line on the June 5 primary ballot in Somerset County, which makes up a plurality of the district by population—roughly a third in total. That gives Weber an important advantage, but she only raised $89,000 in the last quarter and had just $133,000 on hand, so Malinowski is still likely the frontrunner.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 6:41:39 PM +00:00 · David Nir

CT-Gov: Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, who'd been considering a gubernatorial run for some time, announced on Thursday that she was dropping her bid for state Senate and would instead create an exploratory committee for the governor's race. Due to Connecticut's campaign finance laws, candidates almost always go the exploratory route before making their campaigns official, so this almost certainly presages a full-blown bid.

Bysiewicz's last several statewide campaigns have all gone very poorly, though. She twice sought to run for governor (in 2006 and 2010), only to drop out both times. She then tried to run for attorney general in 2010 but was ruled ineligible to run by the state Supreme Court because she lacked the necessary legal qualifications for the job. She then got demolished in a 2012 primary for Senate by Rep. Chris Murphy, who beat her by a 67-33 margin.

However, Bysiewicz is still almost certainly better-known, especially to Democratic primary voters, than her opponents, none of whom have ever held statewide office. She also remains a good fundraiser. It therefore wouldn't be surprising to see Bysiewicz emerge as the Democratic nominee, though despite Connecticut's decidedly blue lean, this will be a very difficult seat for Democrats to hold thanks to outgoing Gov. Dan Malloy's deep unpopularity.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 7:29:49 PM +00:00 · David Nir

AL-02: Good grief. Former Rep. Bobby Bright, who won a dark red Alabama seat as a Democrat in 2008, just announced a challenge to the woman who beat him two years later, Republican Rep. Martha Roby … in the GOP primary. In his lone term in Congress, Bright compiled one of the most conservative voting records of any Democrat in the House, so his party switch isn't a real surprise. What is shocking, though, is that Bright kicked off his campaign at the headquarters of the Alabama Republican Party! Considering that he's running against, you know, a Republican incumbent, that is deeply strange.

And while Roby found herself on the outs with conservatives in 2016 after she called on Trump to step down from the GOP presidential ticket when the "Access Hollywood" tapes came to light, she's served as a quiet team player ever since—even, to her shame, biting her tongue during the entire Roy Moore imbroglio. It's therefore quite stunning that the very same establishment of which she's been a loyal member would send a signal like this that they want her to get lost.

But Bright may not exactly be the right sort of fellow to deliver that message. Roby survived the general election in 2016 by a surprisingly tight 49-42 margin after furious conservatives mounted a write-in campaign following her abandonment of Trump, who carried Alabama's 2nd District by a far wider 65-33 spread. And even though Bright was on the far-right edge of the Democratic caucus, the fact still remains that he was a Democrat.

The experience of other similarly situated ex-Democrats is instructive. In Alabama's 5th District, which is located at the other end of the state but is just as red, Rep. Parker Griffith sought to survive the same onslaught that felled Bright by switching parties while in office. But as we noted at the time, "to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn't enough just to vote a certain way." Rather, there's a much more stringent standard you need to adhere to:

You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging—you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn't matter how right-wing you are ….

Griffith indeed failed this test, quite badly: He lost the Republican primary by a punishing 51-33 margin to now-Rep. Mo Brooks, and he later rejoined the Democratic Party. Roby also came very close to failing this test, but it's hard to see Bright turning in better marks.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 7:43:05 PM +00:00 · David Nir

NJ-11: Former NFL center Nick Mangold, who spent his entire 11-year career with the New York Jets before getting cut after the 2016 season, is apparently considering a bid for New Jersey's open 11th District, according to Essex County GOP chair Al Barlas. Despite the team's name, the Jets actually play in New Jersey (their stadium is located in the neighboring 9th District), so they have a devoted local fan base. And while the team hasn't reached the playoffs in a long time (it has a famously "long-suffering" fan base, too), Mangold had a successful career as a seven-time Pro Bowler and was always a popular player, so he'd start off any campaign with a different level—and type—of name recognition than you typically see.

He also wouldn't be the first NFL star to run for Congress in New Jersey. In 2010, longtime Philadelphia Eagles offensive tackle Jon Runyan handily won the GOP primary, then defeated Democratic Rep. John Adler in South Jersey's 3rd District, though he retired from the House after just two terms.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 8:15:15 PM +00:00 · David Nir

NY-24: Democratic Party committees in three upstate New York counties—Cayuga, Wayne, and Oswego—voted on Wednesday night to endorse Syracuse University professor Dana Balter as their preferred choice to take on sophomore GOP Rep. John Katko in November. However, the decision has no binding impact on the race, meaning that the other three contenders could still forge ahead to the primary. What's more, those three counties collectively make up just a little over a third of the district's population. The lion's share is contained in Onondaga County, where Democrats won't conduct a similar vote until Feb. 24, and it's possible they could go another way. Both Balter and her main rival, businesswoman Ann Messenger, raised very little in the fourth quarter, while Katko has over $1 million on hand.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 8:26:13 PM +00:00 · David Nir

PA-07: Tax attorney Greg McCauley, who also owns nine Wendy's franchises throughout Pennsylvania and New Jersey, just became the second Republican to join the race for Pennsylvania's open 7th Congressional District. On the one hand, McCauley's message doesn't seem like the kind that GOP primary voters like to hear: "Both sides are just so far apart," he said in kicking off his campaign. "If they could just sit and talk, we could make great strides for our children." On the other hand, his hostility to immigrants might make the base quite happy, since he added, "I really don't want to hear what immigrants expect from us. I want to hear what they're going to do for us."

More importantly, though, is the fact that the Rorschach-blot 7th District is almost certain to get completely rearranged now that Pennsylvania's court-ordered redistricting is about to go forward. And once it does, the 7th is bound to get considerably bluer, so Republicans reaching for this particular brass ring might not be so thrilled once they grasp hold of it.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 8:59:50 PM +00:00 · David Nir

IL-Gov: Hrm. State Sen. Daniel Biss has just released a new PPP poll of Illinois' race for governor, but it's not about next month's all-important primary. Instead, it's all about the general election and shows him pounding GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner by a 47-30 margin. That's great, but it also finds that Biss' chief rival for the nomination, billionaire J.B. Pritzker, is pummeling Rauner, too, 48-35. Is the argument, then, that Biss is more electable because Rauner is at 35 instead of 30 against Pritzker? That seems weak.

The poll also includes Pritzker's favorability numbers, which are underwater at 33-42—unsurprising, given that Rauner has long expected Pritzker to be his opponent and has been pummeling him on the airwaves. However, in a completely transparent omission, the survey doesn't mention Biss' favorables. Obviously Biss is not well-known, so his numbers would have shown that most voters don't have an opinion of him yet, but again, this makes it harder to argue that he has an electability advantage over Pritzker.

One thing's for sure, though: Rauner is in massive trouble. His own favorability rating is a beyond-abysmal 26-63. To put that in context, even Donald Trump is more popular in Illinois! Trump's favorability is still an awful 37-58, but how in hell can Rauner get re-elected when he's even more hated than the guy in the White House?

Speaking of polls, there's a second new survey out, and this one does concern the Democratic primary. However, it's from Republican pollster Victory Research, whose principle, Rod McCulloch, has a black record when it comes to basic honesty: He falsified signatures for a candidate seeking to get on the ballot in 2008 and was convicted of perjury in connection with the case, receiving a sentence of probation.

We have no way of saying whether McCulloch has since redeemed himself, but his past is worth bearing in mind as you consider the results, which show Pritzker barely edging Biss 27-24, while businessman Chris Kennedy takes 17. This is by far the closest any survey has found the race, though a recent We Ask America poll showed a considerable tightening from 39-6 Pritzker in October to 30-17 Pritzker last month.

And finally, switching gears to the Republican primary, we now know that state Rep. Jeanne Ives didn't merely release her infamous racist and transphobic campaign ad in a play for media attention. She actually wants voters to see it, since she put $137,000 behind the buy,

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 9:04:20 PM +00:00 · David Nir

NJ-11: Welp, that was fast. Nick Mangold has already said he’s not running for Congress. Credit to him for speaking up both quickly and clearly: In a short statement, Mangold led by saying, “I am not running for Congress.” If only every potential candidate would be this plain!

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 9:09:22 PM +00:00 · David Nir

TN-01: On Thursday, GOP Rep. Phil Roe announced he would break a term-limits pledge and would in fact seek a sixth term in Congress, despite raising just $3,700 last quarter. When Roe ran for this seat in 2008, he declared that members of the House should serve no more than 10 years and promised to limit himself accordingly. However, he's conveniently forgotten that vow, and so, it seems, has everyone else, since none of the recent reporting about whether Roe would run again has even mentioned it. We remember, though.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 9:19:39 PM +00:00 · David Nir

PA-18: Democrat Conor Lamb is going on the attack with a new ad, though he doesn't hammer his Republican opponent, Rick Saccone, but rather Paul Ryan—and he does it in exactly the manner you'd want to see. In the spot, which he narrates himself, Lamb blasts Ryan for "using the term 'entitlement reform' to talk about Social Security and Medicare as if it's undeserved, or it's some form of welfare." Lamb rejects that calculus, saying, "It's not any of those things. People paid for it. They worked hard for it. And they expect us to keep our promises to them." He then goes on to talk about a 65-year-old man he met who's caring for his 14-year-old niece. "If you mess with his Social Security," says Lamb, "he won't be able to take care of her anymore." More like this, please.

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018 · 11:15:56 PM +00:00 · Carolyn Fiddler

Statehouse Action: This Week In Statehouse Action: I Want To Know What Law Is edition has everything you love (and everything you love to hate): the latest special election win, Pennsylvania Republicans going crazy (like foxes), record numbers of women running for state legislative seats this year, and Kansas lawmakers blaming porn for, like, everything.

Love keeping yourself up on the latest state politics news each week? Sign up here to get This Week In Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each Thursday!

Friday, Feb 9, 2018 · 12:08:55 AM +00:00 · David Nir

GA-Gov: Fundraising reports for the most recent reporting period, covering July 1 through Jan. 31, are now available for Georgia gubernatorial candidates. On the Democratic side, former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams outraised former state Rep. Stacey Evans more than two-to-one, bringing in $1.7 million to Evans' $800,000. However, Evans also added another $1.25 million in self-funding, leaving her with a wide $1.5 million to $460,000 cash advantage.

The real gap is actually considerably bigger, though, since as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein notes, only $180,000 of Abrams' remaining stockpile can be used ahead of the May primary; the rest can only be spent if she makes it to the general election. But in a leaked strategy memo (that doesn't seem like one that Abrams wanted to be made public), Abrams' campaign manager argued her high burn rate was born of a "strategic decision" to build out campaign infrastructure early, in contrast with a "'raise and hold' for television advertising model" that she says "has been the losing formula for Georgia campaigns."

As for Republicans, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle led the field with $4.4 million raised and $5.8 million in cash-on-hand. Among other current or former elected officials, Secretary of State Brian Kemp took in $1.2 million and has $2.1 million in the bank, while former state Sen. Hunter Hill raised $1.1 million and has $1.5 million left. State Sen. Michael Williams brought up the rear with just $230,000 raised, but thanks to a $500,000 loan (on top of previous self-funding), he still has $1.3 million on hand. But the second-biggest fundraiser was actually businessman Clay Tippins, who raised $1.65 million and loaned himself another $450,000, leaving him with a $1.7 million war chest.

Friday, Feb 9, 2018 · 12:32:50 AM +00:00 · David Nir

CA-Gov: We have a pair of new polls of California's top-two gubernatorial primary, and one of them differs considerably from what we've seen for a long time. That survey comes from the Public Policy Institute of California, which finds Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom with just a 23-21 edge on former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, with state Treasurer John Chiang in third at 9, and the best-performing Republican, Assemblyman Travis Allen, at 8.

Just before PPIC's poll came out, though, Newsom released his own numbers from David Binder Research, which shows him with a much more comfortable 30-11 lead over both Villaraigosa and Chang, who are tied; businessman John Cox was the top Republican here, but with just 7 percent. That's very similar to a poll that came out just the other day from Policy Analysis for California Education, a nonpartisan research center, that had Newsom up 29-11 on Villaraigosa.

Friday, Feb 9, 2018 · 1:56:33 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI-Sen: Despite the fact that five of her colleagues sit in states that both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney carried, Wisconsin Democrat Tammy Baldwin has been by far the biggest target of Republican attack ads so far this cycle, and the onslaught isn't letting up. A Koch-backed front group called Veterans America is the latest to join in, pouring $1.5 million to run a new ad hitting Baldwin over the death of a resident at a Veterans Administration facility in Tomah, Wisconsin from prescription opioids.

Like else everything the Kochs churn out, this spot is totally bogus. The ad claims that Baldwin ignored an inspection report she received in 2014 detailing problems at Tomah, but Baldwin had already asked for investigations into opiate abuse at Tomah from the Tomah VA, the VA itself, and the VA's Office of Inspector General. Baldwin nevertheless apologized for not pursuing the problem (which the VA ultimately took responsibility for) even more aggressively, but she didn't let matters rest there.

Notably, the ad fails to mention the name of man who died at Tomah, but it's talking about Marine veteran Jason Simcakoski. It's a pointed omission, because in 2016, Baldwin passed legislation to strengthen the VA's opioid prescription guidelines called the Jason Simcakoski Memorial and Promise Act, and she did so with the vocal support of Simcakoski's widow and parents. Nevertheless, even though Simcakoski's own father declared he was "grateful to Senator Baldwin and her staff for their tireless work on this reform," the Kochs have stooped to using his son to attack her.