The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MO-Sen, MO-02: Very interesting. In response to reports (all of which have relied only on anonymous sources) suggesting that GOP Rep. Ann Wagner might be reconsidering her decision not to run for the Senate, Wagner herself isn't shooting down the notion. In a new interview with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Wagner didn't rule out a run, instead saying, "I am focused on my work … in the 2nd Congressional District." When pressed further as to whether that constituted a proverbial "Shermanesque" disavowal, Wagner would only say, "I won't be quoting Sherman today."
Campaign Action
If Wagner goes for it, of course, that would set her up on a collision course with state Attorney General Josh Hawley. And while his campaign has gotten bruised up lately, he still remains the apparent favorite of much of the Missouri GOP establishment. But Wagner at least is unlikely to blame human trafficking on the sexual revolution, and while she has her weaknesses, she's a very strong fundraiser, an area where Hawley has lagged. (His burn rate, in particular, was much higher than Claire McCaskill's in the fourth quarter of last year.)
There's also another reason why Wagner might want to seek a promotion. On Tuesday night, Democrats flipped a dark red seat in a state House special election in Missouri (see our item below), a district that happens to be contained almost entirely within Wagner's congressional seat. Ominously, that legislative district, the 79th, is considerably redder: Donald Trump won it 61-33, a far wider margin than his 53-42 win in the 2nd Congressional District. By contrast, Trump won Missouri 56-38, though of course Wagner would be a challenger rather than an incumbent if she ran for Senate, and McCaskill is no pushover.
But even at home, it's not necessarily smooth sailing. Wagner's drawn a credible Democratic opponent in attorney Cort VanOstran, who actually outraised her last quarter, $115,000 to $104,000. Wagner still has a huge cash lead of $2 million to VanOstran's $334,000, but Missouri's 2nd is one of the best-educated and most affluent districts in the country—precisely the sort of suburban turf where Trumpism plays worst. Wagner might have a rocky 2018 no matter where she runs.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Three new polls of a hypothetical matchup between Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and term-limited Republican Gov. Rick Scott just popped, and they all show completely different things. Florida Atlantic University finds Scott leading by a wide 44-34 margin, but that doesn't entirely make sense, because last August, they had Nelson up 42-40. Scott's approval ratings seem to have nosed upward in the wake of his handling of Hurricane Irma (despite the horrific series of nursing home deaths on his watch) and his head-to-heads might have as well, but it wouldn't follow that Nelson's standing should also have dropped, and so dramatically, too.
What's especially weird is that the University of North Florida saw the exact opposite transpire. Their latest survey has Nelson on top 48-42, even though in October, he sported a narrow 38-37 edge. Splitting the difference is Mason-Dixon, which puts Nelson ahead just 45-44. More importantly, that's virtually unchanged from the last time they were in the field (also in October), when they pegged the race as a 44-all tie. Whether their toplines are correct is unanswerable, but Mason-Dixon's steady trendlines track best with reality.
● WY-Sen: Weird. Zillionaire GOP megadonor Foster Friess says he's still considering a bid for Senate, but in the same new interview with USA Today, he also heaped almost ridiculous levels of praise on the man who stands in his way—the current Republican incumbent, Sen. John Barrasso. "I love the current senator," said Friess. "I think he's an incredible human being." Whoa, ease up, buddy!
But it gets even stranger from there: Friess also said he thinks it wouldn't be "honorable" if he used his personal wealth to outspend Barrasso, because the senator was an orthopedic surgeon prior to getting elected to Congress, "and orthopedic surgeons can't make as much money as I've been able to make." This, from the guy who spent a fortune bankrolling a "Rick Santorum for president" super PAC in 2012. Perhaps Friess thinks he can push Barrasso to retire through flattery, but Barrasso is just 65, considerably younger than Friess' 77 years. Wyoming's filing deadline isn't until June 1, so we might not have a resolution to this silliness for some time.
Gubernatorial
● IA-Gov: Our first poll of Iowa's 2018 gubernatorial race comes from Des Moines-based pollster Selzer & Company, which is well-known for their quality polls of their home state. Their new survey, taken on behalf of the Des Moines Register, finds GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds leading her potential Democratic opponents, albeit not all that impressively:
41-37 vs. state Sen. Nate Boulton
42-37 vs. businessman Fred Hubbell
41-30 vs. former Obama official John Norris
42-30 vs. former state party chair Andy McGuire
44-31 vs. local SEIU president Cathy Glasson
As you can see, Reynolds, who was elevated from the lieutenant governorship to the top job last year after Gov. Terry Branstad was named Trump's ambassador to China, largely remains stuck in the low 40s, regardless of her opponent. That's a little bit surprising given her 48-32 favorability rating (and similar 47-33 job approval score), meaning there are folks who say they like her but aren't yet willing to commit to voting for her.
And while there's no data on how well-known any of the Democrats are, it's a safe bet that their name recognition is far lower than Reynolds'. So if Selzer's read is right, then these numbers point to a competitive general election in November.
● IL-Gov: Feeling a little heat, are we? Gov. Bruce Rauner in theory should have little to fear from his ultraconservative GOP primary opponent, state Rep. Jeanne Ives, especially since Ives didn't even try to gainsay a We Ask America poll just last month that had Rauner up by a giant 65-21 margin. But something must have changed since then, because Rauner just launched an ad attacking Ives as "Mike Madigan's favorite Republican"—Madigan being the powerful state House speaker who's long been Rauner's number one antagonist and also a target of some of the Democratic candidates for governor.
The most significant recent development we can point to is the huge cash infusion that Ives has gotten from megadonor Dick Uihlein, who since the end of January has given Ives an astounding $2.5 million. And note, this isn't for a super PAC or somesuch: Illinois has absolutely no campaign finance limits when it comes to donations to candidates. Indeed, Rauner received a $20 million donation from hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin last year, though Rauner himself is also a billionaire and has self-funded his own campaign heavily. As such, even a few million for Ives can't possibly match Rauner's war chest, but either he's playing it super-duper safe, or he's legitimately spooked with just six weeks to go before the primary.
Finally, we need to issue a correction. In yesterday's Digest, a statement critical of J.B. Pritzker was mistakenly attributed to Chris Kennedy. It was proclaimed by a different Democratic primary opponent of Pritzker's, Daniel Biss.
● MN-Gov: After a poor showing in a straw poll at precinct-level party caucuses on Tuesday night, former state House Speaker Paul Thissen announced on Wednesday that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary for governor. That leaves five contenders still in the running: former St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, state Rep. Tina Liebling, state Rep. Erin Murphy, state Auditor Rebecca Otto, and Rep. Tim Walz, who led the voting in the straw poll. (The results aren't binding on the party's formal endorsement process, though.)
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson was the clear winner of the GOP's simultaneous straw poll—"undecided" came in second. However, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is weighing a comeback bid, could completely upend the race should he enter.
● NM-Gov, NM-Sen: Despite threatening to run for governor last year, Republican-turned-Libertarian Aubrey Dunn—who, rather remarkably, is New Mexico's elected land commissioner—has decided instead to run for the Senate. Had Dunn opted for a gubernatorial bid, he could have complicated Republicans' already-difficult chances of holding the governor's mansion. But the Senate race is a dud for the GOP no matter what, as Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich is the overwhelming favorite for a second term over businessman Mick Rich, who raised just $66,000 last quarter.
● OR-Gov: Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, who is up for re-election for a full term this November just two years after winning a special election, holds a wide 46-29 lead over her likely Republican opponent, state Rep. Knute Buehler, according to a new survey from local pollster DHM Research. That big gap, though, is a product of Buehler's low name recognition: Fully 65 percent of voters don't have an opinion of him yet, with just 23 percent saying they view him favorably to 11 percent who don't.
Brown, by contrast, maintains a solid 49-37 favorability score, and she's the strong favorite to win. Between Oregon's blue hue—Republicans haven't won a gubernatorial race here since 1982—and the political environment, Buehler has a tough race ahead of him.
House
● CA-39: Navy veteran Gil Cisneros, one of the leading Democrats in the race for Southern California's open 39th District, has released his first TV ad of the election. In the minute-long spot, Cisneros briefly references his military background but speaks more extensively about the foundation he created to help send kids to college after he won a $266 million lottery drawing in 2010 (which he alludes to by saying "fortune struck"). He then transitions to his policy priorities, like lowering health care costs and protecting school funding. There is no word on the size of the buy, but Cisneros had over $1 million in his campaign account at the end of the fourth quarter and obviously has the ability to do much more self-funding.
● PA-18: Yet another ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund hits Democrat Conor Lamb for "opposing your tax cuts" along with Pelosi, saying that the GOP's recent tax bill offers a "$2,900 middle class tax cut for our community" (a totally garbage claim, since it absurdly relies on the average tax cut, not the median). The ad is part of a reported $1.7 million buy.
● TX-05, AZ-08: Ted Cruz's super PAC, called the Jobs Freedom & Security PAC, is spending some money on behalf of a couple of House candidates that Cruz has endorsed who have primaries coming up soon. In Texas's open 5th Congressional District, Cruz is laying out $57,000 on unspecified "media" for former Tyler City Councilman Jason Wright, who was once a staffer for the senator. Meanwhile, in Arizona's vacant 8th District, Cruz is spending $75,000 (also on "media") to help former state Sen. Steve Montenegro. Copies of any ads do not appear to be available online.
● TX-21: Former Ted Cruz chief of staff Chip Roy, who led the Republican field in fundraising in the fourth quarter, has launched his first TV ad ahead of next month's GOP primary. The spot describes Roy as a "constitutional conservative" and rails against the "Washington establishment" for "telling us how to live our lives" as grainy photos of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer scroll by. Most amusingly, the narrator explains that because Roy knows that "what works in California doesn't work in Texas," he'll "defend the 10th Amendment," which is not a common topic even in the crazy world of Republican primary ads.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Oh yeah! Did you see what happened Tuesday night? Cuz it was good—real good. Johnny Longtorso has a quick recap:
Missouri HD-39: Republicans held this seat, with Peggy McGaugh defeating Democrat Ethan Perkinson by a 64-36 margin. Donald Trump won here 71-24.
Missouri HD-97: Democrats scored a huge pickup in this district, as Mike Revis defeated Republican David Linton by a 52-48 margin. Trump carried this seat 61-33.
Missouri HD-129: Republican Jeff Knight defeated Democrat Ronna Ford by a 69-31 margin in this 80-16 Trump district.
Missouri HD-144: Republicans held on to this seat, though Chris Dinkins only defeated Democrat Jim Scaggs by a 53-47 margin. This was a huge 53-point swing from 2016, when Donald Trump dominated 78-19 here.
The amazing thing is that Democrats didn't contest a single one of these seats in 2016, three of which are in rural Missouri, but as you can see, they wildly outperformed Trump's margins in every single race. In fact, that monster 53-point shift in the 144th District is the largest we've seen all cycle. What's more, the GOP's loss in the 97th District has already sparked intra-party recriminations about the role that Gov. Eric Greiten's ugly blackmail scandal may have played in hurting the Republican candidate.
And yes, as a reminder, special election results are closely correlated with general election outcomes. Are Republicans sure they want to breathe a sigh of relief over their recent bounce in the general congressional ballot?
