After years of soaring growth, the number of U.S. jobs in the solar industry fell in 2017, according to the Solar Job Census 2017. Authors of the census, a project since 2010 of the Solar Foundation, calculated the number of solar jobs last year at 250,271, a drop of 9,800 workers from the previous year, and a 4 percent reduction in the solar workforce. Of the total, some 7,500 jobs were lost in installation, sales and distribution, and project development, with about 1,200 shed in solar manufacturing. Given the record-breaking 2016 growth, a number of close observers had expected a modest pullback.
In 2016, more than 51,000 solar jobs had been added to the workforce, a 25 percent gain over the previous year. Over the past seven years, the solar workforce has grown by 168 percent, an addition of 157,000 jobs.
The census authors project that more jobs will be added in 2018, continuing the previous trend. But they made that forecast before the White House announced its 30 percent tariff on solar panel imports.
One big reason given for continuing growth is the number of states that are driving solar and wind installations with their renewable portfolio standards. These mandate that a certain amount of electricity must come from renewable sources by a certain deadline. New York state, for instance, requires 50 percent renewables by 2030, while Arizona requires 15 percent by 2025, and Hawai’i has set its sights on 100 percent by 2045. Emma Foehringer Merchant reports:
“States are still setting their renewable portfolio standards; they’re still increasing them or talking about increasing them,” said Ed Gilliland, senior director of programs at The Solar Foundation. “We will likely experience some headwinds over the next year or two, but certainly the stronger states can sail forward. I think we can still get some emerging states to do well, but they need strong policies to support growth.”
Despite the 2017 job losses in well-established solar markets like California’s, where 40 percent of nation’s solar capacity has been built, 29 other states and the District of Columbia saw their solar workforces grow in 2017.
Measured against the total U.S. workforce, the percentage of African American employees in the solar industry is about half as large and there are 20 percent fewer women. The industry has higher percentages of Latino and Asian employees.
Three key elements were at work last year to reduce the solar workforce: 2016 was a difficult-to-beat record growth year; changes in rate structure and the industry model, and rainy weather in California greatly reduced installations in the state; and uncertainty about fallout from an international trade case in which China’s export of cheap panels was determined to have financially hurt the two U.S.-based, but foreign-owned solar-panel makers who brought their complaints to the U.S. International Trade Commission. The ITC ruled last May and recommended a tariff of as much as 50 percent.
The Solar Census:
First, the solar industry experienced a recoil from its 2016 installation binge. Installed capacity doubled between 2015 and 2016 in anticipation of the expiration of the 30% federal investment tax credit. Although the tax credit was extended in December 2015, many projects,especially utility-scale projects, were already well into the development process. Therefore, 2016 saw an explosion of utility-scale solar development and related employment growth. The decline in 2017 was expected following this unprecedented boom in utility-scale solar installations.
In 2017, installers throttled back to a more moderate level of activity. The most recent U.S. Solar MarketInsight® report found that compared to the record 15.1 GW of installed capacity in 2016, only 11.8 GW were expected to come online in 2017, representing a 22% decline in installed capacity.
As a result, fewer workers were needed to complete the installations. Nonetheless, expected 2017 installations are still almost 13 times greater than the 929 MW installed in 2010, and well above the 7.5 GW installed in 2015 or any previous year.
The trade ruling generated considerable worries among solar insiders about a solar-panel price hike if a tariff were imposed as a result of the ITC ruling. In a survey conducted by the Solar Census last October, “71 percent of all solar companies said they had already felt negative effects from the case in 2017, likely due to the uncertainty over the final decision.” Last month, Pr*sident Donald Trump did, in fact, impose a 30 percent tariff on imports of solar cells and panels.
GTM Research projects that the tariff will generate a 7.6-gigawatt drop in solar demand through 2022. For 2019, GTM Research projects new solar capacity to drop 16 percent from its original forecast.
A majority of experts believe the tariff will reduce U.S. solar jobs substantially in 2018, as much as 28,000, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association. The Solar Census made a different projection, but that was calculated before the tariff was imposed:
