OK, so six republicans have come out publicly against the House bill:
www.nbcnews.com/…
Not only does that mean that there are not enough votes in the Senate to stop a filibuster, there are not enough votes to pass the bill straight up nor to drop the nuclear option, eliminate the filibuster, and ram the bill through.
Neither the Senate nor the house are willing to vote on a compromise bill, nor have they considered democratic amendments.
Here’s the thing. If allowed an up or down vote, the 54 Billion plus up to defense in the ‘budget deal’, DACA fix, CHIP fix, FAA re-authorization, and other ‘government maintenance’ measures would pass easily. It might even be a 70% plus condorcet winner of all the available options. It might even be a decent spending bill in its own right.
Republicans know this.
The House is pushing a bill, and McConnell has given up any pretense of leadership on the issue. He telegraphed days ago that he would take the bill from the House, and put it up for a vote at the last minute, come what may. He might have a shot t the narrative on a party line vote, but he just looks completely ineffectual if he loses by an outright majority.
He might not even get that far. The real magic number is 17 Republicans who strongly oppose a shutdown. 11 Republicans would make for a supermajority that could invoke cloture on a bill and push through a bipartisan cleanup amendment. 17 republicans could amend the senate rules under regular order, force an immediate vote, and send an amended bill back to the house, essentially turning Paul Ryan’s tactic against him.
We might even see Yurtle face a vote of no confidence.
Conclusion:
OK, so this diary is happy talk and shameless speculation, but I’ve never seen such a weak republican position in my life. We’ve been on bizarro world for a hell of a long time now.