Polls:
- IN-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Joe Donnelly (D-Inc): 44, Mike Braun (R): 36
- NJ-Sen: Monmouth: Bob Menendez (D-Inc): 49, Bob Hugin (R): 40 (April: 53-32 Menendez)
- NJ-Sen: National Research (R) for Bob Hugin: Menendez (D-Inc): 42, Hugin (R): 40
- NV-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Jacky Rosen (D): 44, Dean Heller (R-Inc): 44
- TN-Sen: SSRS for Vanderbilt University: Phil Bredesen (D): 44, Marsha Blackburn (R): 43 (Sept.: 50-45 Bredesen)
- WV-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Joe Manchin (D-Inc): 45, Patrick Morrissey (R) 40
Normally, Daily Kos Elections cites poll numbers that include both respondents who definitively pick a candidate and those who say they’re leaning one way or the other, but we had to do something different in the case of Vox Populi. The firm allows respondents to say they support or lean towards one candidate, but it doesn't allow them to say they were undecided.
As we wrote in our post explaining how Daily Kos Elections reports and analyzes polls, we require any poll featured in the Digest to include voters who indicate that they're undecided. If a pollster does not allow voters to say they're still making up their minds and instead forces them to choose a side, they're leaving out a critical piece of information about the state of the race—and not adhering to best practices. However, rather than exclude Vox Populi from the Digest, we've decided that it's better to treat the respondents who, when forced to make as choice, say they're "leaning" towards a particular candidate as undecided voters.
For instance, in Indiana, 44 percent of respondents say they're backing Donnelly, and 11 percent say they're leaning towards him; 36 percent say they're for Braun, and 11 percent say they're leaning Braun. We therefore are reporting that Donnelly leads 44-36 rather than 55-45, and are classifying the 22 percent of "leaners" as undecided voters—which they in fact were when initially asked, until they were compelled to choose a candidate. It's not an ideal solution, but we think its better than excluding Vox Populi's results altogether.
In New Jersey, the Washington Examiner tells us the National Research internal for Hugin was in the field Oct. 6-9.
SSRS's last Tennessee Senate poll, whose trendlines we show above, was conducted for CNN, while this one was taken for Vanderbilt University. While three independent polls from the first two weeks of October showed Blackburn up anywhere from 5 to 14 points, this is the second independent survey this week to show a much tighter race. This is also the first poll we've seen in about a month to give Bredesen any sort of lead.
However, while it's tempting to hope that Bredesen just took a dip earlier this month and has now stabilized his position, we still only have a limited set of data to work with. We don't know if anything has changed over the last few days, or if the firms who’ve polled more recently just happen to be more favorable toward Bredesen than those who were in the field earlier. And since SSRS’s prior poll gave Bredesen a 5-point lead, this latest survey actually shows his support declining.