Hurricane Michael is rapidly intensifying and will soon be an exceedingly dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 miles per hour. Michael’s central pressure has dropped rapidly to 947mb and winds on the weak side were apparently just measured at 110knots — the top of category 3. The Panama city region of Florida is in extreme danger as Michael is intensifying to a more powerful storm than forecast. National Hurricane center forecasters have been carefully using the best models to make their forecasts, but predicting the intensity of hurricanes continues to be a challenge. Evacuations need to be expedited because this storm may be significantly more destructive than models have predicted. If you are in an evacuation zone you should have left by now. If you are near the margin of an evacuation zone I recommend you leave as quickly as you can in the dead of night because you won’t have time to leave if officials expand the evacuation zone later. People have died stuck in traffic in a hurricane so what ever you do, find shelter on high ground before the storm hits.
The NHC’s latest 10 pm central time 11PM EDT discussion vividly reviews the astounding intensification that Michael has been undergoing over the past six hours.
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL1420181000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased to 110 kt.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has not measured thus far.
Michael’s eye wall is forecast to come ashore near Panama City Beach midday tomorrow. The eye is forecast to be just offshore at 1pm Wednesday afternoon. Destructive storm surge will begin early in the day and buoy measurements show waves of 30 feet or higher will add to the destruction caused by the surge. If the storm continues to intensify, storm surge forecasts will need to be updated.
The official NHC storm surge forecast at 8pm was:
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and thetide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded byrising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has thepotential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft
The best measurements of hurricane wind speed and intensity are the direct measurements by hurricane hunter meteorologists but those measurements are supplemented by satellite data. Satellite data may also be useful to help predict storm intensification. A method improved and used by the University of Wisconsin, called the Advanced objective Dvorak technique. indicates that Michael is likely to continue to intensify, possibly to a strong category 4 and potentially up to the low end of category 5. The combination of extremely cold cloud tops and a warm eye indicates that Michael could spin up to 135 knots — over 150 mph. Actual wind speeds have been lower than ADT numbers for most of the day, probably because the eye wall has had weaknesses and instabilities. However, the ADT numbers have accurately indicated that Michael would strengthen rapidly and waters are warm enough to support a category 5 hurricane if wind shear does not disrupt the eye wall.
The latest hurricane hunter pass at 10:10pm shows the pressure continues to drop and hurricane Michael continues to intensify.