UT-04: On Tuesday, another 7,700 ballots were counted in conservative Utah County while 9,800 were tabulated in Salt Lake County, causing Democrat Ben McAdams’ lead over GOP Rep. Mia Love to drop from 4,906 votes to 1,357, a margin of 50.3-49.7.
Love won the Utah County ballots 74-26, which is about where she’d been performing in the county prior to this latest batch. The bigger concern for McAdams is that, while he’d been carrying his Salt Lake County base 54.7-45.3 before Tuesday, he only won this latest group of ballots 51.8-48.2. That’s better for McAdams than the batch released on Friday, which Love actually won, but it’s still a lot narrower than what he was getting before.
The big question is whether the remaining Salt Lake County ballots will continue to be more conservative than the county as a whole, or if these were just two good days for Love. The Salt Lake Tribune’s Robert Gehrke estimates that, in the 4th District, there are still about 34,500 ballots left in Salt Lake County, 5,400 in Utah County, and 260 in conservative Juab and Sanpete Counties. Under this math, if each candidate wins the remaining ballots by the same percentages that they’re currently earning in each county, McAdams would ultimately prevail by about 1,680 votes. However, if McAdams were to win Salt Lake County’s remaining ballots just 52-48 instead of 55-45—in other words, what he got on Tuesday, as opposed to how well he was doing before Tuesday—Love would win by 578 votes.
It’s worth reiterating, though, that Gehrke’s estimates of how many votes remain in each county are just that: estimates. Overall, there are 62,000 votes left to be tallied in Salt Lake County and 32,000 in Utah County, but both counties are split between multiple congressional districts. Gehrke has estimated how many ballots remain in just the 4th District alone based on historic election results. However, if this year turns out to be different and those patterns change, it could have a big impact on Gehrke’s projections for this tight race.
We still have a while yet to go before we learn our final answer: Salt Lake County will continue to report vote totals every weekday, while Utah County says their next update will be on Friday.