in this just up post
The story leads with these key takeaways:
Predict: 76% Democrat, 24% Republican (+/– 3.8%) among Latino voters casting votes for U.S. Representative of either major party
LD Turnout Predict: 62.6% (+/– 2%) of registered Latino voters to cast votes
The partisan break is the midpoint of the range of possibilities:
we predict the Democratic party share among Latino voters will fall somewhere between 72.2% and 79.8%
This paragraph is also worth noting:
Notably, Cuban-Americans, long a reliable source of support for Republican candidates, will split their vote (50.5% Democrat, 49.5% Republican), continuing a trend away from earlier Republican dominance over the past several election cycles. Meanwhile, Puerto Ricans living in the fifty states and those of primarily Puerto Rican ancestry, are expected to cast 76.9% for Democrats and 23.1% for Republicans. Both groups are expected to be of special relevance to close votes in Florida. Overall, Florida Latino voters are expected to vote 60%-40% for Democratic congressional candidates, a figure that may have implications for gubernatorial and senate races in that state.
LD has previously discussed how Latinos were self-organizing, with many possible voters not having been contacted either by a party or a candidate.
I note that the figures LD is reporting is very different than what has been assumed in most likely voter models.
Now consider that the Latino vote is not just crucial in Florida, but will matter significantly in Senate and other races in NV and AZ, in the Governor’s race and the two vacant House seats in NM, for Beto and many Congressional candidates in TX, and in some other places (eg CO) as well.
Keep that in mind as we go into tomorrow’s elections and the current predictions for the Congressional outcomes.
And note how this seems very different than the pattern in the chart used to illustrate this post.
Peace.