Democrats are winning special elections because liberals are fired up right now and conservatives are not. Republican voters may still like Trump—but they despise Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan. Over and over again, a lot of Republicans are simply staying home rather than vote another Republican into office.
We saw it again in PA-18's special election last Tuesday. Democrat Connor Lamb won with 78.5 percent of the votes Hillary Clinton received in that district, while the Republican buffoon who opposed him received just 52.5 percent of Trump’s totals. There are several ways to interpret those numbers (maybe a chunk of Trump voters crossed the aisle to vote for Lamb), but the biggest pattern is this: there's an enthusiasm gap right now, and it's working to Democrats' advantage.
One of our big goals heading into 2018 is keeping GOP voter intensity low. If they're thinking about how a vote for a Republican is just another vote for Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, then they're not going to be excited, they're going to stay home, and we’re going to win. If Republican candidates can only manage half of Trump’s vote total—as in PA-18—then Dems will pick up 119 House seats this November.
Just how much do Republicans hate their congressional leadership? I'll show you, starting with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Note, the chart above is McConnell’s favorable ratings among Republicans, who give him no love even after stealing a Supreme Court seat from President Barack Obama and ramming through last year’s tax scam.
Meanwhile, these same Republicans remain fickle (or maybe ambivalent) on House Speaker Paul Ryan:
They hate him when he fails to eliminate Obamacare, but then they’re okay when he allows billionaires to pocket tens of millions. … So what will happen when he fails to accomplish nothing much else the rest of this Congress, including leaving the ACA on the books? A smart super PAC should run ads on talk radio blasting Ryan (and McConnell) for failing to repeal the ACA.
It’s clear that Republicans aren’t happy with their congressional leadership. Running hard against them motivates liberal voters, while doing nothing to motivate conservatives to rush to the polls in their defense—an electoral win-win.