MI-Gov: On behalf of the Greater Detroit Regional Chamber PAC, the Glengariff Group is out with surveys of both parties August primaries. With the close of the candidate filing period earlier this week, we're going to take a look at where things stand in the Democratic side first in the contest to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Rick Snyder; we'll be hitting the GOP field in a separate MI-Gov item.
The poll, which was conducted to determine which candidates the local Chamber of Commerce would invite to their late May debate at the Mackinac Policy Conference, shows wealthy businessman Shri Thanedar edging former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer 30-26. Former Detroit Health Commissioner Abdul El-Sayed takes a distant 7 while former Xerox executive Bill Cobbs, who is now running a write-in campaign after failing to make the ballot, is at 3.
That’s a rather different picture from the only other usable poll we’ve seen lately: One month ago, Target-Insyght found Whitmer leading Thanedar 34-20, with El-Sayed at 6. A few other surveys have been released since then, but they've had unacceptably small sample sizes or far too many undecided to tell us much.
Much of the state Democratic establishment, including several influential labor unions, has endorsed Whitmer. It took some time for the party to rally around her though, though: There had been reports, for instance, that Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan was trying to recruit an alternative candidate, but he ended up endorsing Whitmer at the end of February.
Thanedar, though, has spent millions of his own money to start advertising on TV early, and at least this latest poll indicates it's helped him pull ahead of Whitmer, who is evidently waiting until closer to Election Day to go on TV. However, like a lot of political newcomers who take their first steps on to a large stage, Thanedar has had his share of stumbles and earned some bad headlines.
The newest comes from the Huffington Post, which reports that when a company Thanedar owned went bankrupt in 2010, the firm ended up shuttering an animal testing facility and leaving the animals behind. At the time, reports said that animal rights activists saved almost 120 beagles and 55 long-tailed macaque monkeys. Thanedar says the bank took control of the facility after his company declared bankruptcy, claiming he had no knowledge or control of what happened to the animals.
In a very different vein, The Intercept spoke to several Democratic consultants in the state earlier this month who all said—on the record—that when Thanedar interviewed them before he entered the race, he expressed interest in running as either a Democrat, a Republican, or an independent. They also charged that Thanedar was uncertain about his own political beliefs: One consultant said Thanedar "admit[ted] he was pro-life" while another concluded he was "adamantly pro-choice." Thanedar himself doesn't dispute that he "remained noncommittal" but says he did so because he didn't want to "share any information … until such time as I announced my candidacy."
El-Sayed, meanwhile, hasn't really registered in the polls yet, but he has raised a credible amount of money. El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim to be elected governor anywhere in the country, has been running as a progressive outsider. However, he has faced some serious questions about whether he’s even eligible to run for governor in the first place.
A Michigan native who’s spent most of his life in the state, El-Sayed joined the faculty at Columbia University in 2014 and was registered to vote in New York City as recently as March of 2015. El-Sayed didn't re-register in his home state until March 2016, and that’s a big deal because Michigan’s constitution requires gubernatorial candidates to be "qualified electors"—that is, registered voters— for four years before an election.
The issue is murky, because El-Sayed never terminated his old Michigan voter registration when he left the state. However, he’d been placed on a "cancellation countdown" list after surrendering his Michigan driver's license to obtain one from New York, and of course, no voter can have a valid registration in two locations at once.
El-Sayed recently petitioned a state judge to issue a declaratory judgment on whether or not he’s eligible to run, but the court has yet to rule. Both of El-Sayed’s primary foes have said that they won't challenge his eligibility, but Democratic leaders have openly worried that if El-Sayed were to win the nomination, the GOP could then sue and possibly get him knocked off the ballot. Right now, though, El-Sayed looks like a longshot to win the primary.