The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NE-02: In Tuesday's biggest upset, nonprofit head Kara Eastman, who also serves as a member of the publicly elected Metropolitan Community College Board, defeated former Rep. Brad Ashford 51.4-48.6 in the Democratic primary for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Eastman will take on freshman Republican Rep. Don Bacon in this Omaha-based seat that narrowed from a 53-46 victory for Mitt Romney in 2012 to a much tighter 48-46 win for Donald Trump in 2016.
Campaign Action
Eastman's win was a surprise for quite a few reasons. She faced a large financial disadvantage against Ashford, who'd outraised her $559,000 to $356,000 through late April. Eastman did have some support from local Democratic elected officials as well as a few unions, but she didn't have the name recognition of Ashford, a longtime Omaha politician who represented this seat for one term. Ashford also had the advantage of getting placed on the DCCC's Red to Blue list for top candidates, as ex-members seeking comebacks often are, and that may have kept national donors and groups away from his opponent.
While the primary was largely civil (the two candidates' families are close), Eastman did run against Ashford, a former Republican who has always portrayed himself as a moderate, from the left. Most notably, Eastman emphasized her support for "Medicare for all" and ran a TV ad telling the audience she was tired of hearing that Democrats don't stand for anything. Eastman also likely benefited from running at a time when women have been doing well in Democratic primaries.
Long before the primary was decided, most prognosticators concluded that Eastman would be a weaker nominee that Ashford. Observers argued that the GOP would be able to portray Eastman as too liberal for Omaha, a problem that the more moderate Ashford would in theory be able to avoid. However, despite the conventional wisdom, it's far from clear that Ashford was actually the better bet.
Back in 2016, Ashford lost to Bacon 49-48, which was almost identical to the margin of Hillary Clinton's close defeat in the district, so he may not have had the crossover appeal his supporters believed he'd have this year. And Ashford's fundraising—a practice he openly disdained—was always weak, even as an incumbent and despite all his connections. Even though he'd been running for almost a year, his total haul at the end of the first quarter of the year put him at 97th among credible Democratic challengers.
But while Ashford was certainly an imperfect candidate, he was at least a known one. The only thing many national observers know about Eastman is that she beat a Blue Dog-endorsed former congressman while running to the left, so it's pretty easy to caricature her as something like a progressive version of a tea partier. But like most caricatures, it would be inaccurate. Eastman's support for universal health care, tuition-free college, and gun safety reform are about where the Democratic base is now, and these policies tend to poll well with the larger public, too.
The GOP certainly won't waste time trying to portray Eastman's support for expanding Medicare to all as some malign scheme to impose punitive taxes and turn America into a grim socialist hellscape … but it's not like they don't already plan to use that line of attack in every competitive race they can. It will be up to Eastman to push back and make a positive argument about her views rather than let the GOP define her.
One further potential concern for Eastman is that her fundraising up until now has been pretty slow (she was 152nd on the list), but undoubtedly her ability to bring in money was constrained by the fact that she was running against an establishment favorite in a primary. Now that she's the nominee in a competitive seat, she should have a much easier time raising the cash she'll need.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Republican Gov. Rick Scott and his allies have continued to rain down money on Florida's Senate race, and Scott's latest Spanish-language TV ad ups his total spending to a huge $8 million after just a month in the race. Outside groups have also chipped in $3 million on his behalf, bringing the total Republican spending to nearly $12 million.
Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson has yet to go up on the air, but he was sitting on a $10 million war chest as of April 1. While political science research has found the effects of ads diminish very quickly, Scott's enormous personal wealth could let him air all the ads he could want, and Nelson will need every dollar he can get.
● IN-Sen: Senate Majority PAC has launched their first TV ad against newly minted GOP nominee Mike Braun, which they're backing with a $500,000 buy. The spot capitalizes on a recent AP report that portrayed Braun's business practices in a negative light, focusing on how he was a hypocrite when it came to outsourcing jobs overseas and that he faced lawsuits over unsafe working conditions and wage theft.
● NV-Sen, NV-04: The Professional Fire Fighters of Nevada union has endorsed Republican Sen. Dean Heller's re-election bid and former Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford's campaign to regain his old 4th District.
● WI-Sen: Wisconsin Next PAC has dropped $500,000 for an ad buy on TV, radio, and digital on behalf of Republican state Sen. Leah Vukmir. The TV version highlights her recent endorsement from the state GOP and labels her a consistent conservative.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: Democratic firm Tremont Public Advisors has conducted an online poll that included candidates who recently dropped out, but they did test one plausible general election matchup that has good news for Democrats. The pollster finds businessman Ned Lamont, the Democratic front-runner, with a 50-40 lead over Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, who just won the Republican endorsement ahead of the August primary. However, there's been little general election polling to compare with this.
Meanwhile on the Republican side, attorney Peter Lumaj dropped out after failing to obtain the 15 percent support at the recent GOP convention needed to proceed to the primary without having to gather voter signatures.
● FL-Gov: A new internal poll from Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, conducted by Change Research, argues that, unlike other surveys of the August Democratic primary that have shown him a distant third, he's actually a somewhat close second. The poll finds wealthy Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine in front at 20, but Gillum and former Rep. Gwen Graham are tied at 13 apiece, while businessman Chris King is well behind at just 3. Undecided voters make up a majority of the sample—52 percent—so these numbers suggest a potentially volatile race as well.
(As an interesting aside, this poll was conducted online and also featured an informed ballot portion that included candidate photos, a methodology we don't think we've seen before.)
Speaking of King, he's looking to burst his way out of the caboose with his first flight of TV ads. According to Politico's Marc Caputo, he's reserved $823,000 in four broadcast markets across the state (Gainesville, Orlando, Panama City, and West Palm Beach), and Caputo suggests that more may come.
His initial spot is a little more catchy than most: A waiter asks a man in an expensive suit if he'd like "more sugar, sir?", to which the well-heeled patron responds, "Yes, of course." The server then proceeds to dump an entire bag of granulated sugar into the man's mug. At this point, King intervenes to explain, "It's the same old politics: Big Sugar buys influence in Tallahassee and then pollutes our environment." King goes on to vow never to "take a dime" from the sugar industry and promises to expand Medicaid, support affordable housing, and increase community college opportunities.
● GA-Gov: With less than week to go before Georgia's primaries, Atlanta-based TV station WXIA has released a new poll from SurveyUSA of both the Democratic and Republican contests, as well as two potential general election matchups. Among Democrats, former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams has a wide 43-24 lead on former state Rep. Stacey Evans, a similar gap to Abrams' 33-15 advantage in a University of Georgia poll last month.
Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle is the front-runner on the GOP side, with a 35-17 lead on Secretary of State Brian Kemp. State Sen. Hunter Hill is the only other candidate in double digits with 10, while the fourth main player, businessman Clay Tippins, is at just 8. If Cagle can't snatch enough of the undecided vote to clear 50 percent, he'd face a runoff with the second-place finisher on July 24.
Cagle would also begin the general election with a similar lead on both Democrats: 46-41 versus Abrams and 45-41 over Evans. But this poll shows there's a real chance he'll have to spend another two months fighting for his party's nomination, while there's no possibility of a Democratic runoff since there are only two candidates competing.
● MN-Gov: In a reflection both of his weakness with party activists and his belief that he doesn't need them in order to win the Republican nomination, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced this week that he would not compete for the state GOP's endorsement at its convention next month. A Pawlenty spokesperson offered the lame excuse that his candidate's "late entry into the race effectively precluded a fair fight" for the endorsement, but the reality is that delegates are likely to favor Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who was the Republican nominee for governor in 2014.
But unlike in other states, where winning a convention might come with tangible benefits (such as guaranteeing a spot on the primary ballot), in Minnesota, the principle outcome, at most, is that some or perhaps all of those who don't win might choose to drop out. The emphasis here is on "choose": No one is obligated to quit, or even to contend for the party's endorsement in the first place. Candidates are free to forge on to the August primary no matter what happens at the convention, and that's exactly what Pawlenty plans to do. And with his greater resources and name recognition, he's the favorite, even if Johnson wins the Republican endorsement.
Meanwhile on the Democratic side, the SEIU State Council has endorsed state Rep. Erin Murphy, who is relying on a win at the June state party convention.
● NV-Gov: Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak's latest Democratic primary ad features Rep. Dina Titus bemoaning the attacks against him as false. Titus claims Sisolak is a "progressive Democrat" who supports a woman's right to choose and will stand up to Trump and the NRA.
● SC-Gov: Palmetto PAC, which is supporting Gov. Henry McMaster in the GOP primary, has debuted a TV ad attacking former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. The spot uses footage of Trump uttering his classic, "You're fired," to call Templeton a failure who was fired from three government positions.
● WY-Gov: Businessman Sam Galeotos has unveiled his first TV ad ahead of the Aug. 21 Republican primary. The spot focuses on his business success, saying he's a conservative who wants to create jobs by getting government out of the way of small businesses.
House
● CA-45: Democratic pollster PPP has conducted a hypothetical general election survey of California's 45th District for the progressive group End Citizens United, and their results have good news for Democrats. The poll has UC Irvine professor Katie Porter, a Democrat, with a 46-43 edge over Republican Rep. Mimi Walters. However, they did not release any results for the top-two primary, where Porter and fellow UC Irvine professor and Democrat Dave Min are likely in a competitive race for the chance to face Walters.
● CT-05: Businessman Rich DuPont has announced he'll continue to the August primary after attaining enough support to do so at the recent Republican convention. He'll face former Meriden Mayor Manny Santos, who has the party's endorsement, and retired psychology professor Ruby O'Neill.
● KS-02: State Sen. Dennis Pyle has decided to make a late GOP primary bid to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Lynn Jenkins, whom he actually lost to by a relatively decent 57-43 in a 2010 primary challenge when she was seeking her second term. Pyle joins a GOP field that includes Army veteran Steve Watkins and state Sens. Steve Fitzgerald and Caryn Tyson.
Republicans have struggled to find a strong contender for this 56-37 Trump district, while likely Democratic nominee Paul Davis continues to stockpile his cash. However, a hardline conservative like Pyle may not be the GOP's white knight. Despite holding a state Senate seat that backed Trump by 71-23 and Romney by 68-29, Pyle massively underperformed with a 58-42 re-election victory in 2016, while he only won by a razor-thin 50.7-49.3 margin in 2012. His association with the failed budgetary policies of former Gov. Sam Brownback could make him similarly vulnerable if he becomes the GOP nominee in the 2nd District.
● MT-AL: Attorney John Heenan has launched his first TV ad ahead of the June 5 Democratic primary. It features a woman whose bank tried to foreclose on her house, but she says Heenan took on her case and successfully stopped them. The ad argues Heenan will fight for Montana families.
● NM-01: Former deputy Bernalillo County Assessor Damian Lara's first Democratic primary ad shows the candidate detained in an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency van driving along a highway while he talks about the danger of letting Trump get his way on deporting undocumented immigrants. Lara promises to stand up to Trump and stop him from terrorizing immigrants.
● NY-19: Retired Army intelligence officer Pat Ryan has begun airing his first TV ad ahead of next month's Democratic primary, and it packs a powerful punch on the issue of gun safety. Ryan relays how, after he came home from the Iraq War, he started a company to develop technology to protect soldiers. The ad then shows him in a warehouse where he holds up an assault rifle and says, "... we were protecting them from weapons like this."
Ryan bemoans how assault rifles are on our streets and in our schools, asserting that if children are going to go up against them, they should have the same body armor as soldiers. While he provides a voice-over, the spot shows several young children suiting up in military gear while they go to school, and Ryan closes by offering a far more serious solution: "Or we could just get rid of assault rifles."
● OH-12: On behalf of the progressive group End Citizens United, Democratic pollster PPP took a look at the August special election and found Republican Troy Balderson leading Democrat Danny O'Connor 45-43. This is the first poll of the general election we've seen since both candidates won their primaries last week, so we're still eager for more data about how things are looking in this 53-42 Trump seat.
● TX-02: With Honor Fund, a super PAC that backs veterans in both parties, is out with a spot praising retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw and bashing state Rep. Kevin Roberts, his rival in Tuesday's GOP runoff. The narrator asks what "politician Kevin Roberts" thinks of Crenshaw's service before playing a recording of Roberts asking, "You want to get bad policy? Send a bunch of people who have never worked in the real world." The narrator takes umbrage at that and reminds the audience that Crenshaw lost his eye in Afghanistan only to deploy two more times, but Roberts worked in a law firm.
As the Houston Chronicle recounts, Roberts' "bad policy" line came at a forum a few weeks ago after Crenshaw touted his Harvard degree and work in public policy. Roberts insisted afterward Crenshaw started attacking him over it a few days later that he was only talking about business experience, which he compared favorably to Crenshaw's Ivy League master's degree. The whole thing is reminiscent of John Glenn's "Gold Star Speech" during his debate with Howard Metzenbaum in the 1974 Ohio Senate Democratic primary. (Spoiler alert: Glenn won.)
● TX-21: The Club for Growth has thrown down another $140,000 on a TV spot for next week's GOP runoff that tries to connect businessman Matt McCall to Nancy Pelosi in a pretty indirect way.
The narrator argues that McCall ran for Congress twice and "got swamped," which is true, and says that if he loses again, it will make Nancy Pelosi speaker. The ad doesn't mention that McCall's two losses were in primaries against retiring Rep. Lamar Smith, though they're probably right that McCall would be a weaker general election candidate in this 52-42 Trump seat than the Club-backed Chip Roy. Still, it's hard to see this seat being the district that decides control of the House.
The rest of the spot argues that McCall "uses the same fake news attacks against Chip Roy that liberals use against Donald Trump." We're not sure what that means, but hearing "Speaker Pelosi!" and "Fake News!" spoken in anger in a primary ad may be all Republican voters are looking for.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso recaps Tuesday's proceedings, in which Democrats and Republicans swapped a pair of seats in Pennsylvania:
Alabama SD-26: Democrats had no trouble holding this one: David Burkette defeated Republican DJ Johnson by an 89-11 margin.
Alabama HD-04: This was a Republican hold. Parker Moore defeated Democrat Juanita Allen Healy by a 67-20 margin, with independent Pete Willis taking 12 percent.
Pennsylvania HD-48: Republicans scored a pickup here: Tim O'Neal defeated Democrat Clark Mitchell Jr. by a 54-44 margin, with Libertarian Demosthenes Agoris taking the remaining 2 percent.
Pennsylvania HD-68: This was an easy Republican hold. Clint Owlett defeated Democrat Carrie Heath by a 76-24 margin.
Pennsylvania HD-178: Democrats picked this one up. Helen Tai defeated Republican Wendi Thomas by a 50.4 to 49.6 margin.
Primary Recap
● ID-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brad Little defeated Rep. Raul Labrador 38-31 to win the GOP primary to succeed retiring Gov. Butch Otter; physician and developer Tommy Ahlquist, who began airing ads a year before the primary and decisively outspent his primary foes, came in third with 27 percent. Little will be the clear favorite in this very red state against former state Rep. Paulette Jordan, who upset wealthy 2014 nominee A.J. Balukoff 59-40. Idaho is a very red state, but if Jordan pulls off another upset in November, she would become the nation's first Native American governor.
Little, who hails from a famous ranching family, was the choice of much of the state political establishment. Otter backed him early, and Sen. Jim Risch and Rep. Mike Simpson both endorsed him as well. All three candidates represented different wings of the party: Little appealed to more establishment types, Labrador was a prominent tea partier, and Ahlquist portrayed himself as a businessman outsider. But Ahlquist and Labrador also both hailed from the state's large Mormon community, and they may have cost one another votes.
It's also worth noting that with Labrador's defeat, four of the six GOP House members who have run for statewide office have lost their primaries. Last week, both Todd Rokita and Luke Messer lost in Indiana's Senate race, while Evan Jenkins was defeated in the West Virginia Senate primary. Ohio's Jim Renacci and Pennsylvania's Lou Barletta did win their Senate primaries, though they had the full support of the White House and party establishment against underwhelming foes.
● OR-Gov: State Rep. Knute Buehler defeated businessman Sam Carpenter 47-29 to win the GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Kate Brown. Carpenter had been going after the self-proclaimed "pro-choice" Buehler on abortion, and he was trying to establish himself as the main anti-abortion candidate. But retired Navy pilot Greg Wooldridge took 19 percent of the vote, and he and Carpenter seem to have split the same group of voters too much to give either of them a chance against Buehler.
Oregon is usually a reliably blue state, but Team Red hopes that Buehler can be the first Republican to win the governorship since Vic Atiyeh was re-elected in 1982. While Buehler used most of his war chest on the primary, he's close to plenty of big donors, and he should have plenty of money in a state that has no contribution limits. Still, he'll face an uphill climb against Brown in what's looking like a tough year for the GOP nationwide. Interestingly enough, this will also be the second time the two have tangled: Back in 2012, Brown beat him 51-43 in her re-election campaign for secretary of state.
● PA-Gov: Wealthy state Sen. Scott Wagner beat businessman and retired Army Ranger Paul Mango 44-37 in the GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, while attorney Laura Ellsworth finished with 19.
Wagner had the state party endorsement and a big spending edge over Mango, so it wasn't a surprise he prevailed. The contest between the two was exceptionally bitter, though. One Mango ad accused Wagner of being a "slum lord" and a "deadbeat dad," while Wagner's daughter countered by calling Mango "not half the man my father is" in a spot for the state senator. But unlike some other defeated GOP primary candidates, Mango encouraged his party to come together and beat their common Democratic foe.
The battle between Wolf and Wagner will likely be another pricey and nasty fight, but the governor starts as the clear favorite. Most polls show Wolf with a positive approval rating, and that's usually enough for an incumbent to win in a friendly political year. Wagner is also a hardcore conservative who has a volcanic temper (back in June he aggressively tried to grab a Democratic tracker's phone, bloodying the tracker in the process; state Attorney General Josh Shapiro declined to bring charges), which could contrast badly with the more low-key Wolf.
● ID-01: Former state Sen. Russ Fulcher, who had the support of outgoing Rep. Raul Labrador, decisively beat attorney and longtime Idaho politician David Leroy 43-16 in the GOP primary for this 64-25 Trump seat in the western half of the state.
Fulcher lost a 2014 primary challenge to Gov. Butch Otter by a surprisingly close 51-44 margin, and he planned to run for governor again before deferring to Labrador. While Fulcher and Leroy each spent about $110,000 during the pre-primary period, the anti-tax Club for Growth dropped a hefty $512,000 on ads for Fulcher.
● PA-01: Wealthy lawyer and philanthropist Scott Wallace defeated Navy veteran and JAG attorney Rachel Reddick 56-35 in the Democratic primary to take on freshman Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Wallace (a grandson of Henry Wallace, who was Franklin Roosevelt's second vice president and ran for president in 1948 under the banner of the left-wing Progressive Party) had backing of much of the local party establishment in Bucks County, which makes up the vast majority of this seat, while Reddick had the national groups VoteVets and EMILY's List on her side.
This suburban Philadelphia seat narrowly backed both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the GOP usually does well down the ballot in this area. The morning after the primary, the DCCC released a survey from their in-house polling operation showing Fitzpatrick with a 48-46 edge over Wallace. The poll was taken days before the primary.
Both candidates will be well-funded. Fitzpatrick had a $1.3 million war chest in early May, while Wallace has already self-funded $2.5 million. However, it's not going to be easy to beat the incumbent. Fitzpatrick, who fended off an underfunded conservative primary challenge from attorney Dean Malik 67-33, has cultivated a moderate image in his one term. Fitzpatrick is also the younger brother of Mike Fitzpatrick, a popular former congressman who retired in 2016.
Fitzpatrick's team has also wasted no time trying to portray Wallace, who was born and raised in Bucks County but spent decades away, as a carpetbagger. Wallace had a good response to that when he announced his campaign in January, declaring, "I live in the very same house where I was born and raised and I'm proud of it," and adding, "My children's height marks are notched on the wall right next to the ones for myself and my siblings."
● PA-02: Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle won renomination 64-36 against minister and former bank executive Michele Lawrence in this reliably blue Philadelphia seat. Redistricting split Boyle's old seat, which was numbered the 13th District, and he only represents about half of this new seat. But while a number of Democrats made noises about challenging him, Lawrence was the only one who stepped up in the end.
● PA-03: Freshman Rep. Dwight Evans won renomination to this safely blue Philadelphia seat by a lopsided 81-19 against Pastor Kevin Johnson.
● PA-04: State Rep. Madeleine Dean won the Democratic primary for this new Montgomery County-based seat in a 73-16 landslide against gun safety activist Shira Goodman. Former Rep. Joe Hoeffel, who decided to wage a last-minute campaign to try to return to the House after 14 years, took just 11 percent. Dean had the support of much of the state and local party establishment, but it was still a surprise that her victory was this lopsided. This district went for Clinton 58-38, and Dean should have no trouble in November.
● PA-05: Attorney and former local school board member Mary Gay Scanlon won the expensive and very crowded Democratic primary for this Delaware County-based seat by a surprisingly strong 28-15 margin against former federal prosecutor Ashley Lunkenheimer; former Philadelphia Deputy Mayor Rich Lazer, who had the support of a number of unions as well as Bernie Sanders, also took 15 percent. Clinton won 63-34 here, and Scanlon should be in no danger in the general election.
All three top finishers had plenty of money behind them. While Scanlon narrowly outspent Lunkenheimer heading into the final weeks of the campaign, a super PAC financed by Lunkenheimer's mother deployed about $100,000 on her behalf. Lazer also benefited from about $1 million in spending from a labor-funded super PAC.
It wasn't at all obvious for most of the race that Scanlon would emerge from the very packed field as the nominee, and we even initially left her out of our write-up after filing closed. But Scanlon did have some important local figures behind her, including former Gov. Ed Rendell, which seemed to have helped her stand out. Scanlon also took more support than Lunkenheimer when the Delaware County Democratic met to consider an endorsement, and while she didn't have enough votes to win the party's formal backing, it was a sign that many local activists were behind her.
● PA-07: Both parties hosted very tight races for this open Lehigh Valley seat, which went from 53-46 Obama to 49-48 Clinton. On the Democratic side, former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild beat Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli 33-30, while Pastor Greg Edwards took 26. Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein, who won a gold medal in cycling at the 2000 Sydney Olympics, edged former Lehigh Commissioner Dean Browning 50.5-49.5 in the GOP primary. The NRCC added Nothstein to the first rung of their Young Guns candidate program in the final week of the race, so they likely were relieved he came out on top.
While the GOP race was largely a quiet affair, the Democratic contest was anything but. Morganelli is a self-described "pro-life" Democrat who gave GOP Sen. Pat Toomey some useful help during the tight 2016 Senate race and praised Trump repeatedly, putting him far outside the Democratic mainstream. But Morganelli has always performed well in his large Northampton base, and with Edwards and Wild splitting the liberal non-Morganelli vote, he came very close to victory on Tuesday. He also had some labor support, and he benefited from outside spending from a group called United Together that's tied to the awful No Labels.
However, progressive organizations also spent to stop Morganelli. EMILY's List, which supported Wild, aired ads supporting her and going after Morganelli, while Tom Steyer's NextGen America also spent against the district attorney. In the end, it was enough to get Wild over the top; while Morganelli used his concession speech to bemoan the direction he believed the Democratic Party was moving in, he did praise Wild and say she'd be a good candidate.
Outside groups largely stayed out of the GOP race. Neither Republican spent much money, especially compared to the Democratic contenders, but Nothstein did outspend Browning by a clear $124,000 to $55,000 during the lead up to Election Day. Between that and Browning's poor electoral history, it was a surprise that Nothstein won by so little. Still, both parties are likely to converge on this competitive seat in the fall.
● PA-08: Wealthy former JP Morgan managing director John Chrin beat former federal prosecutor Joe Peters 48-35 to win the GOP nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. This Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area seat swung from 55-43 Obama to 53-44 Trump, and Cartwright could be vulnerable even in a good Democratic year. Chrin has already poured over $1 million of his money into his campaign, so he can probably sustain a campaign even if national Republicans take their money elsewhere.
However, Chrin's weak ties to the area could hold him back in the fall. Chrin kicked off his bid against Cartwright last year while still living in the extremely wealthy community of Short Hills, which just so happens to be in New Jersey. And while Chrin grew up in Northampton County, his childhood home is located in the neighboring 7th District.
● PA-09: Former state Revenue Secretary Dan Meuser decisively beat Schuylkill County Commissioner George Halcovage 53-24 in the GOP primary for this 65-31 Trump seat, which includes coal country northwest of the Philadelphia area. Meuser, who narrowly lost a 2008 primary to take on then-Democratic Rep. Chris Carney, used his personal money and connections to start airing ads early, while neither Halcovage nor former CIA officer Scott Uehlinger had much money available.
This is a very red seat, but Democrats do have a noteworthy nominee. Denny Wolff, a dairy farmer who served as the state's agriculture secretary from 2003 to 2009, has been doing some self-funding, and he had $185,000 in the bank at the beginning of May. Still, it would be a big surprise if this race is competitive in the fall.
● PA-10: Retired Army Lt. Col. George Scott, who now serves as a Lutheran pastor, beat former Obama administration staffer Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson 36-35 in the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Scott Perry; public health scientist Eric Ding was a distant third with 18 percent. This seat, which includes Harrisburg and York, went from 53-46 Romney to 52-43 Trump, and Perry could be a Democratic target. Still, it's unclear if the party will invest much energy here.
So far, Scott's fundraising has not been very good. While Corbin-Johnson had EMILY's List's endorsement and raised a surprisingly strong $163,000 during the first quarter of 2018, Scott had little support and had only raised in a total of $90,000 through early May (he also loaned his campaign an additional $20,000).
However, Scott may have gained ground with an ad that we'd missed until now. Scott stood outside with an assault rifle and told the audience that he'd been trained to use weapons like it, but bemoaned that, "Donald Trump's loyal soldiers like Scott Perry exploit guns and God to score political points." Scott then threw his rifle into a fire as he described himself as a veteran and a pastor who believed in common sense, not blind loyalty, before concluding with a call for gun safety.
● PA-11: Freshman Rep. Lloyd Smucker won his GOP primary rematch with wealthy businessman Chet Beiler, who just happens to be his second cousin, by a 59-41 margin; Smucker defeated Beiler by a smaller 54-46 in 2016 for what was an open seat (it was numbered the 16th District back then). While Beiler outspent the incumbent, he didn't seem to have a convincing argument for why primary voters should oust him. This Lancaster County-based seat went for Trump 61-35 and no Democrat has ever won a House seat based in Lancaster County, though nonprofit director Jess King had a notable $211,000 war chest in early May.
● PA-12: Rep. Tom Marino beat Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko 67-33 to win renomination to this safely red rural northeastern seat.
Marino had tried to exit the House last year when he was nominated to serve as Donald Trump's drug czar. Marino withdrew his name after a devastating report in the Washington Post about legislation he'd pushed through Congress at the behest of the pharmaceutical industry to deliberately hobble the DEA's ability to crack down on the black market flood of prescription narcotics. However, Marino seemed secure at home, and the underfunded McLinko was the only person who ended up challenging him in the GOP primary.
● PA-13: Dermatologist John Joyce defeated state Sen. John Eichelberger 22-20 in the very crowded GOP primary for this safely red seat along the Maryland border; state Rep. Stephen Bloom was close behind with 18, while retired Col. Vincent Mastriano and businessman and frequent candidate Art Halvorson took 16 and 15 percent, respectively. (Halvorson didn't buy just enough love with touches this time.)
Joyce used his personal wealth to outspend his opponents, but he attracted the ire of the anti-tax Club for Growth. While the Club didn't endorse anyone, it did air ads attacking Joyce for donating to Democrats. House Freedom Action, which is allied with the far-right Freedom Caucus, ran a spot praising Bloom. But Joyce did get some air support from a mysterious group called CLA, Inc. that was on the opposite side of the Club in another primary this cycle, and their help may have made all the difference in this very tight race.
● PA-14: State Sen. Guy Reschenthaler beat state Rep. Rick Saccone 55-45 in the GOP primary for this open 63-34 Trump seat in Western Pennsylvania. The good news for Saccone is that at least this time, he won't need to read article after article about how he and his "porn stache" are the worst things to ever befall the Republican Party.
Saccone narrowly lost a very high-profile March special election to Democrat Conor Lamb in the old (and very red) 18th District, but he didn't take the hint and leave national politics. Reschenthaler, who had the support of Sen. Pat Toomey, made sure to run ads reminding viewers that Donald Trump reportedly called Saccone "weak" after his loss.
But Reschenthaler also received help from an even more infamous Pennsylvania Republican. A group called Conservatives for PA that ran ads against Saccone received most of its donations from the campaign account of former Rep. Tim Murphy, who used to represent that very same old 18th District. Murphy, of course, was that anti-abortion congressman who resigned last year after the news broke that he'd pressured the woman he was having an affair with to have an abortion when he thought she was carrying his child, and after a separate report also emerged about how he'd bullied his staff.
Murphy didn't just use his money to go after Saccone. Politico reports that he even sent around a cropped video of Saccone that he thought could hurt him: Politico writes that the candidate seemed to "argue that taxpayers should not be on the hook for helping victims of the opioid epidemic," though further comments by Saccone suggest he was only framing this idea as a question someone might ask.
Murphy sent the video around in a text with the comment, "Disturbing comments in light of the death rate in Westmoreland, [Pa.] from drug overdoses. Rick is basically saying, 'I'm not going to help you! Get your grandparents to cure addiction!" But Murphy accidently sent that video to Saccone, and the two engaged in a nasty argument by text. Murphy insisted in an interview the day before the primary that his involvement wasn't personal, and he was just trying to stop Saccone from costing the GOP another seat. Well … mission accomplished?
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