Sea level rise is one of the most solidly proven aspects of climate change. Coastal cities are already starting to deal with its impacts, and in places like Miami, it’s so obvious even Republicans are getting on board with solutions. And given its threat to naval bases, it’s a huge concern for national security, which is why the DOD funded a study on it recently.
Sea level rise has often been somewhat of a blind spot for deniers, who tend to shy away from it because the uncertainty argument is hard to make here. We have years of measurements showing the rise tracks right along with rising temperatures, and the basic physics underpinning it is undeniable: water expands as it warms, and melting glaciers run into the ocean, and the combination of the two drives sea level rise.
Well, at least it was undeniable, but where there’s a will (and Koch money) there’s a way. Yesterday, 93-year old Fred Singer--tobacco-shill turned fossil-fuel-fundee and the “George Costanza of climate”--had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal (freed from behind the paywall at WUWT and ClimateDepot). Singer claims that yes, sea levels are rising, and yes that rise is accelerating, but it’s due to some unknown “enigma,” and definitely not because of global warming.
It’s hard to totally follow Singer’s rhetoric here, in part because he states that climate change isn’t to blame, but provides no evidence as to how or why he reached that conclusion. If we’re reading through the dribble correctly, Singer’s incoherent argument is that because some strange force offset the rising seas from 1915-45, then the accelerating sea level rise currently measured can’t be due to warming. To support this claim, Singer cites a 1990 (!) study showing no global acceleration in sea level rise. (Someone should teach Singer how to use Google scholar: satellites have measured the rising seas in multiple studies since 1990.)
Singer goes on to suggest that more snow in Antarctica could have offset the expansion of water as it warmed in the first half of the twentieth century, theorizing that, in an amazing coincidence, the amount of sea level rise from melting glaciers and expanding water is perfectly offset by the growth of Antarctic ice. He continues with the fabulous assumptions by claiming that the current acceleration of sea level rise (something he admits is happening) is only because of the steady natural warming from our exiting the last ice age. (It’s not. And a study published yesterday further identified exactly how much each factor is contributing to sea level rise.)
Let’s set aside the fact that Singer’s failing faculties and/or devotion to denial has blinded him to the fact that he claims both that SLR is and isn’t accelerating (it is). And we’ll ignore how he casts aside the solid explanation of warming in favor of invoking some unknown enigmas. Because that’s more complicated than we need to get, as Singer seems to have forgotten some very basic physics.
First off, it’s very basic physics that as water warms, it expands. So as the oceans absorb the heat from climate change (90% of the added warmth from GHGs ends up in the ocean) it makes sense that the seas will rise as they warm. Current measurements show seas are warming, and rising.
Second, we know that as glaciers on land melt, the amount of water in the seas rise, and therefore so do sea levels. We’ve measured this as well (and more recently than 1990). These two basic factors line up perfectly with the rate of sea level rise, which in turn matches the rising temperature. No enigma required.
Given that his most up-to-date reference is from 1990, the only unsolved mystery here is what year Fred Singer thinks we’re in.
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