I had planned to do this one a little while earlier, but I decided to wait until after Tuesday’s special election between Caleb Frostman (D) and Andre Jacque (R) in SD-01 that saw the Democrat prevailing by a margin of 51.5 to 48.5. Even though the seat will be up again in the fall, Frostman will have the upper hand to hold the seat going into November, changing the playing field for the chamber as a whole. As a result of the special election, Republicans hold a 18 to 15 edge in the State Senate entering November, making it a competitive chamber for the fall. Let’s look at the ratings chart and then jump right in:
Wisconsin Senate Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
|
1 (D) |
17 (R) |
5 (R) |
9 (R) |
|
25 (D) |
19 (R) |
|
23 (R) |
|
31 (D) |
|
|
|
Lean D: 1, 25, 31
1st District: Caleb Frostman
Well, Caleb Frostman was able to best ultra far right social conservative State Assemblyman Andre Jacque in Tuesday’s special election, eking out the victory in a Trump +18 district by a 3 point margin. Even though Frostman will only be the State Senator for a few months prior to November, incumbency is incumbency and for some, the (I) next to the name is a very powerful factor in the voting booth. It’s still an R+7 district, and should really be Tilt D, but I’m gonna leave it here to signify the slight advantage Frostman has going into November.
25th District: Janet Bewley
The 25th District is an expansive district in the northern part of the state held by freshman Senator Janet Bewley. Bewley won the seat by a narrow 51-49 margin in 2014, a rather impressive result given the national environment. The district has an EVEN PVI, going from Obama by 12 to Trump by 9. However, back in April liberal Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate (essentially a Generic Dem) Rebecca Dallet beat conservative Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate (essentially a Generic R) Michael Screnock here by a 55-45 margin, very similar to her statewide numbers. That should reassure Bewley as she goes into the fall with the national winds at her back facing cable businessman James Bolen. Incumbency + national fundamentals and the fact Bewley won in a much worse environment in 2014 makes her a favorite to win another term.
31st District: Open (Vinehout)
This seat stretches along the Minnesota border in northwestern Wisconsin, taking in Eau Claire as its biggest population center. It is represented by Kathleen Vinehout, who is running for Governor, leaving a potentially vulnerable seat open. Trump won here by 4, while Obama won by 11, so it does slightly favor Democrats. Dallet won by a monstrous 58-42 margin, left of the state as a whole, and in a year like 2018, it makes Democrats the favorites to hold on here. State Assemblyman Jeff Smith is the Democratic frontrunner and he’s the best horse in the race on either side, with farmer Mel Pittman as the GOP leader. All of these factors make this Lean D.
Tossup: 17, 19
17th District: Howard Marklein
Here is the best Democratic pickup opportunity in the Wisconsin Senate. SD-17 starts in the southwestern corner of the state along the Iowa border before stretching into the middle. It has an EVEN PVI and was another classic shift seat, Trump +9 and Obama +15. The incumbent Marklein won by 10 points in 2014, and considering 2018 figures to be a much different environment, the national environment swing alone (from GOP +7 to Dem +5-12) is larger than that margin, which isn’t good for Marklein. He will be facing down Kriss Marion, a Lafayette County Supervisor, which is a good stepping stone to this spot. Marklein is very well funded (we don’t have any data on Marion yet), but he is facing a poor environment in a seat that Dallet won by 8. This figures to be a very tight race.
19th District: Roger Roth
Of the 6 Republican held seats that Rebecca Dallet won back in April, the won she won by the largest margin was this seat, SD-19. Roger Roth is the President of the Wisconsin Senate, winning in 2014 by a nice 57-43 margin. However, on the heels of Dallet’s crushing 58-42 win here in April, this is a seat Democrats are really targeting. Centered on Appleton, this is a crucial swing district and Democrats have Dan Gardy, a member of the Outagamie County Supervisor Board, and Lee Snodgrass, chair of the Outagamie County Democratic Party, in the race. Both seem credible enough to take on Roth, who will have quite a bit of money in the bank but facing a hostile environment. This is a tossup race.
Lean R: 5
5th District: Open (Vukmir)
This is an open seat vacated by Leah Vukmir, who is running for the Republican nomination for US Senate to take on Tammy Baldwin. SD-5 is located in the hyper-conservative Milwaukee suburb of Waukesha, a district that Trump won by just 1 point. Normally, a suburban Trump +1 seat that is vacant would be a tossup, but Waukesha isn’t comparable to other suburbs such as Oakland County, Michigan, or Loudoun County, Virginia. Prior to Trump, SD-5 was super red, going to Romney by 13, even while Obama was winning statewide by 7. Dallet won by 12 staewide, yet lost this district by 2. This will still be an uphill climb for Democrats, and Republicans have the better candidate, in State Assemblyman Dale Koonyenga. Democrats have Julie Henszey, a corporate trainer and outdoor adventure guide. All of these factors make Republicans favorites, but don’t rule out a scenario where an anti-Trump suburban wave carries a Democrat over the top here.
Likely R: 9, 23
9th District: Devin LaMahieu
Located on the Lake Michigan coast including Sheboygan, SD-9 is an R+8 PVI district held by incumbent Devin LaMahieu. Romney won it by 7 and Trump by 17, so it shouldn’t be a major risk, but Dallet did very well in northeastern Wisconsin, also winning this seat by 5 points, so it’s worth putting it on the map. LaMahieu won with about 60% of the vote in 2014, but he doesn’t have as big of a war-chest as you may expect. Democrats have local philanthropy dude Kyle Whelton in the race and he seems to be a solid candidate, though we have no fundraising data yet. It’s one to simply put on the radar.
23rd District: Open (Moulton)
SD-23 is in northwestern Wisconsin including Chippewa Falls and the surrounding area outside of Eau Claire. With an R+8 PVI, it’s not a great pickup opportunity, but the incumbent Terry Moulton is vacating it, giving Democrats an outside shot here. Republicans have State Assemblywoman Kathy Bernier in the race, and she’s certainly the favorite, but not a safe one. She’ll be facing physician Chris Kapsner in a Romney/Trump/Dallet seat. If a large wave comes, it could sweep Kapsner to victory, but don’t bank on it.
The Democratic path to a majority
Thanks to the big win in SD-01, the path to a Democratic State Senate majority in Wisconsin is now very credible. It’s two steps: first, hold your seats. Second, topple the GOP incumbents in the two tossup races in Obama/Dallet districts. Do that, and you emerge with the crucial 17-16 majority.
The Bottom Line
It’s tough to really assign a favorite as we head into the fall. Democrats have done very well in special elections in Wisconsin and they seem to finally have a candidate they like to defeat Scott Walker at the top of the ticket, which should help. Tammy Baldwin (D) is also a strong favorite for re-election, so there could be some coattails for Democratic candidates to ride. They have the right candidates for SD-17 and SD-19, and obviously defending SD-01 is tenuous. But Wisconsin Republicans also can’t like their spot, as they’ve now blown two special elections that has opened the door for this scenario. After the 2016 elections, the WI GOP had a 20-13 majority in this chamber, giving them a pretty secure stranglehold on the State Senate. But then they fumbled away SD-10 in January and then SD-01 last night, which has really opened the door for a chamber flip. Thus, all in all, this is about as clear of a tossup chamber as you get.
Chamber Rating: Tossup
Estimate if election were held today: no change to D+2