Happy summer solstice!
It’s officially the longest day in a year of days that each feel at least a week long themselves (can you believe the North Korea summit was not even a week and a half ago??). Technically, it’s the number of daylight hours that shrinks, of course—there are still 23 hours, 56 minutes, and 4.1 seconds in a day.
But as the darkness begins to encroach on our waking hours and the daylight slips away on our quick march to autumn, let’s take stock of where we are, here at this midpoint between equinoxes and over three-quarters of the way through the electoral cycle.
Grab your shades
Campaign Action
With last Tuesday’s races in Wisconsin settled, state legislative special election season has mostly drawn to a close (two August contests—a California Assembly special to replace a Democrat and an Arkansas Senate special to replace a Republican—are unlikely to result in flips for either party). And while the political landscape of many states remains in flux in advance of key primaries, the parties’ main down-ballot focus turns now to November.
But where did all those elections that have already come and gone leave Democrats and Republicans?
Let’s take a look!
Walking On Sunshine: Democrat Caleb Frostman’s win in Wisconsin Senate District 1 put Team Blue’s 43rd red-to-blue statehouse pickup on the board.
Some are claiming Democrats have flipped 44 seats, but that includes the results of a general election in California that hasn’t actually happened yet—and here at Daily Kos, we truck in actual election results.
- Republicans, on the other hand, were only able to flip seven statehouse seats from blue to red this cycle.
- And yes, that includes last November’s general elections.
- Democrats have flipped 24 seats in specials alone.
- Republicans have flipped six (plus one in a recall).
- General elections last fall saw 19 seats flip Democrats’ way.
- Republicans flipped just one in November 2017.
Not every state fills legislative vacancies through special elections; in fact, in 25 states, vacant seats are filled through some variety of appointment process.
But despite the fact that special elections are even possible in only half of the states, Democrats’ flips have spanned the country, in red states and blue states, from Washington to Florida.
- Democrats flipped one seat in specials in:
- Connecticut
- Kentucky
- Pennsylvania, and
- Washington.
- Democrats flipped two seats in:
- Florida
- Missouri
- New York, and
- Wisconsin.
- Democrats flipped three seats in Georgia, four seats in Oklahoma, and five seats in New Hampshire.
And if that geographic spread weren’t good news enough, let’s not forget the extent to which Democratic candidates are over-performing Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in these districts, compared to two and six years ago.
- In all the Republican-vs.-Democrat special elections held since Trump’s election, Democrats are outperforming Clinton by an average of 12 percent.
- They’re outperforming Obama by 6 percent.
- And while Democrats face an uphill battle in many states for many reasons—including, but not limited to, gerrymandered districts, voter suppression laws, and corporate cash flooding to the GOP—Team Blue is enjoyed record-shattering recruitment for state legislative contests pretty much everywhere.
- Also, these challenges existed last fall in Virginia, too, and Democrats still flipped 15 seats in a single night.
- Also also, this doesn’t fully account for the rather good-for-Democrats stats from the crucial Daily Kos Elections 2018 Legislative Open Seat Tracker, which tracks how many seats each party isn’t contesting, how many on each side of the aisle are retiring or are term-limited out, and that sort of fun thing.
- In a year when, to date, 44 percent of Democratic-held seats are going uncontested by Republicans, while the reverse is true of just 23 percent of GOP-held seats … well, that’s just not a great place to start from if you’re on Team Red.
More to come as I analyze states and chambers in the weeks ahead. Get excited!
Don’t Let The Sun Go Down On Me: With only 10 states holding normal legislative sessions this week, statehouse action is on the low end of the oomph-o-meter, but don’t worry, there’s still news. THERE’S ALWAYS STATEHOUSE NEWS.
Ahem.
- Remember back when Pennsylvania Republicans had kittens over the state Supreme Court’s decision striking down their congressional map as an unconstitutional gerrymander?
- And then lawmakers responded by threatening to impeach the Democratic justices?
- And then those lawmakers finally chilled the hell out and were all like, nah, we’re not going to impeach those justices after all?
Well, Republicans did not, in fact, chill the hell out.
- Pennsylvania’s GOP legislators are trying to do what Republicans routinely do when faced with a judicial decision they don’t like: attack the court itself.
- Sure, they abandoned their impeachment scheme, but what they’re up to now is even more insidious and has further-reaching ramifications.
You see, Pennsylvania Republicans are attempting to gerrymander the court system itself.
- Republicans recently attached an amendment to a redistricting “reform” proposal (which was already problematic—the legislature would control all appointments to this new redistricting commission) that would give the commission authority over judicial redistricting, too.
- Currently, Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices are elected statewide.
- Republicans would like to instead divide the state up into “regional districts,” potentially allowing for the partisan gerrymandering of the court—the same practice that it struck down on the congressional level just a few months ago.
- The measure has passed the state Senate (mostly along party lines) and awaits a vote in the House.
- If it passes there, it must then pass both chambers again in the 2019-2020 legislative session, and then voters will have the chance to vote on it in a subsequent election.
The bill has passed the House Rules Committee already, but no floor vote has been scheduled as of this writing.
Here Comes The Sun: Okay, let’s get to some happy news.
- Following Nevada primaries last week, the state is poised to become the first ever to have a majority-woman legislature.
- A record number of women have been nominated in state Assembly and Senate races.
- In 30 of the 42 Assembly races, at least one woman is running.
- In seven of the 11 Senate seats up this fall, at least one woman is running.
- Additionally, four sitting women state senators aren’t on the ballot this fall.
- The Nevada Senate has 21 seats, and 11 of them could be occupied by women after November.
Fun fact: In 2009-2010, the New Hampshire state Senate had a majority of women, but not the House.
- Nevada currently already boasts a one of the highest percentage of women in its legislature (outpaced only by Arizona and Vermont).
- But achieving parity (or more) in November? Now that would be cool.
Well, it’s a Sunny Afternoon, so I’ll Follow the Sun and get away from my computer for a bit. Until next week, don’t go Staring at the Sun, or Walking on the Sun, or Blistering in the Sun, because you know there’s Ain’t No Sunshine when you’re gone.