We are close to reaching the end of the State Legislative Ratings series. Indeed, there is this piece and then one more on Wednesday before we wrap things up and take a look at the national playing field on Friday (I will include seat estimates for a few competitive chambers that I didn’t do a full writeup on). Today we look at the Connecticut Senate, which Democrats currently control 18-18, with the Lt. Gov., a Democrat, breaking the tie. Despite the fact Connecticut is a blue state, state level Democrats have taken a beating during the unpopular tenure of Governor Dan Malloy, which leaves them in such a weak position entering the fall. Let’s take a look at the ratings chart:
Connecticut Senate Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
19 (D) |
9 (D) |
4 (D) |
18 (R) |
7 (R) |
29 (D) |
|
12 (D) |
33 (R) |
20 (R) |
|
|
13 (R) |
35 (R) |
26 (R) |
|
|
14 (D) |
|
28 (R) |
|
|
17 (R) |
|
|
|
|
24 (R) |
|
|
Likely D: 19, 29
19th District: Catherine Osten
This is a D+3 seat represented by third term incumbent Catherine Osten. Osten first was elected in 2012 and has used the incumbency advantage to win by increasingly large margins. She should be fine in 2018 facing former police officer Mark Lounsbury given her 59-41 margin in 2016 but the state-level dynamics and only small partisan lean of the seat made me put it on the board.
29th District: Mae Flexer
This seat is quite a bit more blue, D+8, yet was actually closer in 2016 than SD-19. Last time around, incumbent Mae Flexer won it by 10 points (55-45), which was an improvement from her first margin of victory from 2014 (3 points). In 2018 she will be facing David Coderre, a Selectman for the town of Putnam, CT. She enters Election Day as a strong favorite but it’s on the radar.
Lean D: 9
9th District: Open (Paul Doyle)
Democrats are defending three potentially vulnerable open seats in 2018. This one is the most likely to be held onto, given its D+8 PVI. Incumbent Paul Doyle won an easy re-election in 2016 but is not running for re-election, giving the GOP a potential opening. The well funded State Rep. Antonio Guerrera is the favorite for the Democratic nomination and for the general election as well, given his background in elected office and gigantic warchest. The GOP favorite is Ed Charamut, a town councilman, but he will be an underdog in the general election, landing SD-9 in Lean D.
Tossup: 4, 12, 13, 14, 17, 24
4th District: Steve Cassano
Here we have the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Cassano was almost swept out of office on a wave of anti-Malloy sentiment in 2016, managing to cling to his seat by a 51-49 margin. In 2018, he faces State Rep. Mark Tweedie, who is very capable of giving him another run for his money. Their fundraising reports show pretty similar levels of cash-on-hand and this race will largely boil down to the same phenomenon that other seats have: anti-Dem state winds against pro-Dem national winds. I think it’ll be enough to save Cassano again, but tossup feels appropriate.
12th District: Open (Kennedy)
This is the second of the vulnerable Democratic open seats, vacated by State Senator Ted Kennedy Jr. (the son of that Ted Kennedy). Kennedy was a strong incumbent, resisting the anti-Dem winds and easily winning re-election to this D+3 seat in 2016. His retirement is a tough loss for Democrats, but they are still in a good enough position to keep the seat. Businesswoman Christie Cohen is the favorite for the D nod and she’s an attractive candidate for Team Blue due to her outsider nature, while former professional baseball player Adam Greenberg is likely to snare the Republican nomination. Greenberg is best known for being hit in the head with a pitch in his first ever MLB at-bat, so he has a compelling personal story to tell. It’s tough to get a read on who is favored here, which is why we have the tossup rating.
13th District: Len Suzio
This is the first of two tossup seats that have Republican incumbents who won election in 2016 by narrow margins. Suzio toppled a Dem incumbent by two points for this D+8 seat, a margin that suggests he should be in for another tough race in 2018. His opponent this time around will be educator Mary Daugherty Abrams, who currently has more than double the cash-on-hand as Suzio, indicating that she’s running a serious campaign. With a freshman incumbent in a very blue seat, this should be a close race to the end, hence the tossup rating.
14th District: Open (Slossberg)
The final vulnerable Dem open seat is a clear swing district, with a D+1 PVI. It’s a seat that moved towards Republicans in 2016, as Clinton won it by just 0.6 in 2016, after Obama won it by 10 in 2012. This will make it a tricky Democratic hold, though both sides seem to have good candidates. The favorites appear to be a pair of State Reps., James Maroney (D) and Pam Staneski (R). Additionally, this figures to be an expensive race, with both candidates having large war-chests. Crucial for the majority, it’s a clear tossup.
17th District: George Logan
Here’s our second Republican incumbent who flipped a seat in 2016, as George Logan, like Suzio, won this D+6 seat by 2 points two Novembers ago. Logan, however, seems to be a stronger bet for re-election than Suzio, as his district is marginally redder, but more importantly, none of the three potential Democratic challengers are raising a lot of money. Someone could separate themselves from the pack, but that has yet to happen. Still, this is a blue enough seat and Logan won by such a small margin that it could very easily flip, which is why it lands here.
24th District: Michael McLachlan
This GOP incumbent is endangered, yet he is not somebody who just got into office. McLachlan has served since 2009, but the last two times he’s been challenged, he’s faced tough scares, winning 52-48 in both 2012 and 2016. Democrats are hoping 2018 is the time to topple him, drafting UAW leader Julie Kushner to do it, another good outsider candidate. There’s not a lot of money on either side of the race yet, but if a blue wave sweeps Connecticut, look for it to hit SD-24.
Lean R: 18, 33, 35
18th District: Heather Somers
This was an open seat in 2016 and despite its D+2 lean, Heather Somers was able to win it pretty decisively, by a 57-43 margin. This makes her start out as a favorite to win re-election in her matchup with Air Force veteran Bob Statchen. Statchen is, by all accounts, running a fine campaign, but this will be an uphill battle against the well-funded Somers, leaving this race in the Lean R column.
33rd District: Open (Linares)
An open D+1 seat that is currently Republican-held, SD-33 is a pickup opportunity for the Democrats. In most states, this would be borderline Lean D, but the state-level dynamics of CT make me very cautious to declare that here. State Rep. Melissa Ziobron is the favorite for the GOP nomination and seemingly the strongest candidate in the race, yet she trails Democratic favorite Norman Needleman, an Essex First Selectman, in fundraising. This could easily flip to the Democrats, but I’m being conservative here and leaving it in Lean R.
35th District: Open (Guglielmo)
Another open D+1 seat that is GOP-held, I view SD-35 similarly to the way I view SD-33. Republicans seem to be running the strongest candidate, with Dan Champagne, the Mayor of Vernon, CT. On the Democratic side, a primary will decide the nominee between Navy vet Josh Balter and Aili McKeen, who is seemingly associated with non-profits and unions. Fundraising is pretty even across the three candidates, so it may very well come down to the macro dynamics, which in theory would slightly favor the GOP, so Lean R seems right.
Likely R: 7, 20, 26, 28
7th District: John Kissel
SD-7 is the only competitive seat with an R+ PVI, with its lean being precisely R+2. Despite this number, which would make it a swing seat, the incumbent was able to win in 2016 by a 22 point margin over Democrat Annie Hornish. Hornish is back for a rematch in 2018 and while she should get a boost from the national environment, Kissel is still a strong favorite to win another term.
20th District: Paul Formica
This is a D+7 district that is in Republican hands due to the crossover appeal of incumbent Paul Formica. He won his most recent term by a sturdy 20 point margin, which like Kissel, puts him in a good spot to win re-election. His 2018 opponent is likely to be registered nurse Martha Marx, who seems like a decent candidate. Fundraising can’t tell us a whole lot, so we largely have to revert back to the priors, which makes Formica a healthy favorite.
26th District: Antonietta Boucher
This district has a more narrow Dem lean, with a D+4 PVI, but like the others, it boasts a quite strong GOP incumbent. Boucher won in 2016 by a similar 20 point margin, which assigns her the label of clear favorite going into the fall. Her opponent is a recent college graduate, Will Haskell, though he’s raising quite a bit more money than I expected given his title. He could push her and make things interesting, but Likely R is where we place it.
28th District: Tony Hwang
Finally we come to a D+2 seat with another strong GOP incumbent. Hwang, like Formica and Boucher, also won his 2016 race by a 20 point margin. His fall challenger is Michelle LaPine McCabe, who works in the non-profit sector. She seems like she has the potential to be strong, but Hwang’s past track record puts SD-28 in the Likely R column.
The Path to a Republican Majority
Since this is a tied chamber, in theory, all Republicans have to do to snag the majority is to hold serve in their seats and win the governorship. Now whether they can do that latter task is a bit less clear, given we have just one poll of that race and it has Democrats up by a solid number. So, let’s assume they should try and pick up one seat for insurance. That could feasibly come from SD-4, SD-12, and SD-14. That said, holding serve in their seats is easier said than done, given the national winds that will be at the backs of Democrats and the handful of seats with narrow margins in 2016.
The Bottom Line
At the end of the day, it’s tough to figure out what’s going to happen in this chamber. You have competing forces and I could see several scenarios. I could see a scenario where Democrats ride the national winds and take advantage of the fact Malloy is leaving office to have a net gain of 3 or so seats. I could also see a scenario where Dems again get punished for the unpopular governor and have a net loss of 1 or 2 seats and they lose the chamber. In fact this is one of only two truly held Dem chamber (so not counting Alaska’s House) that has a chance of flipping in November, with the other being CT’s House. However, I think the result is probably somewhere in between, with Dems flipping a couple seats and the GOP picking off one or two of the open seats and the status quo largely being maintained. But there’s lots of uncertainty, so tossup is the correct rating.
Chamber Rating: Tossup
Estimate if election were held today: R+3 to D+3